SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Washington Redskins Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Lost to NY Giants 21-32, playoff odds down 10.7 to 29%

1-0-2 .333

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	-10.9		-1.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dallas vs Atlanta	-0.9*-0.3+0.9		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	+0.8*-1.9-0.7		+0.1-0.2-0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.4*-0.5-0.4		+0.0-0.1-0.0
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.3*+0.4+0.3		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.3*-0.0+0.3
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.3*+0.3+0.3		-0.0+0.2+0.0
Detroit vs Denver			-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Carolina vs New Orleans			+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Seattle vs Chicago			-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco			+0.0*-0.2-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs Philadelphia	+9.8*-1.6-9.8		+1.2*-0.1-1.2
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+1.3*+1.7-1.3		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas	+1.2*+0.0-1.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.5*+1.9+0.5		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Oakland	-0.3*-0.6+0.3		-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.3*-1.8-0.3		+0.0*-0.3-0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay			-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14		13	-	0	-	0	In		99	1															99
13	.5	12	-	1	-	0	In		100																4
13		12	-	0	-	1	In		96	4			0												747
		11	-	2	-	0	In		100																2
12	.5	11	-	1	-	1	In		94	5			2												66
12		11	-	0	-	2	In		79	18	1		2												4,456
		10	-	2	-	1	In		67	33															3
11	.5	10	-	1	-	2	In		57	34	4	0	5												402
11		10	-	0	-	3	100.0	%	40	37	10	1	11	1	0										16,139
		9	-	2	-	2	In		43	36	14	7													14
10	.5	9	-	1	-	3	99.9		19	38	22	3	17	1	0										1,272
10		9	-	0	-	4	98.8		7	25	26	8	25	8	1	0									41,020
		8	-	2	-	3	In		5	33	36	5	17	5											42
9	.5	8	-	1	-	4	94.9		1	9	25	18	24	18	4	1	0								2,935
9		8	-	0	-	5	75.0		0	3	14	18	16	24	17	6	1	0	0						73,576
		7	-	2	-	4	75.6			2	15	22	18	18	17	7									82
8	.5	7	-	1	-	5	43.0			0	4	18	4	17	26	20	9	2	0						4,556
		6	-	3	-	4	Out								100										2
8		7	-	0	-	6	17.7			0	1	9	1	6	19	25	21	12	4	1	0	0			97,758
		6	-	2	-	5	14.9				1	6		8	13	36	21	9	6						141
7	.5	6	-	1	-	6	5.2				0	5		0	3	11	23	27	21	9	2	0	0	0	5,454
		5	-	3	-	5	Out											100							1
7		6	-	0	-	7	1.5				0	1	0	0	1	4	11	21	26	21	11	3	1	0	98,061
		5	-	2	-	6	0.7					1				5	11	23	26	26	7	1	1		137
6	.5	5	-	1	-	7	0.4					0				0	1	5	14	27	29	18	5	1	4,641
		4	-	3	-	6	Out												33		33	33			3
6		5	-	0	-	8	0.1					0				0	0	1	6	17	29	28	15	3	73,579
		4	-	2	-	7	Out												1	16	24	31	23	3	86
5	.5	4	-	1	-	8	Out												0	3	12	35	35	14	2,877
		3	-	3	-	7	Out																100		1
5		4	-	0	-	9	0.0					0							0	1	7	23	41	29	41,021
		3	-	2	-	8	Out														2	25	42	31	48
4	.5	3	-	1	-	9	Out														1	8	38	54	1,263
4		3	-	0	-	10	Out													0	0	4	28	68	16,306
		2	-	2	-	9	Out																36	64	14
3	.5	2	-	1	-	10	Out															1	11	88	397
3		2	-	0	-	11	Out															0	9	91	4,347
		1	-	2	-	10	Out																	100	2
2	.5	1	-	1	-	11	Out																2	98	58
2		1	-	0	-	12	Out																1	99	708
1	-1.5						Out																	100	112	*

Total:							29.0	%	3	4	5	6	5	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	+2.3
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Seattle vs Chicago	+0.1+0.2-0.1
Dallas vs Atlanta	+0.1-0.1-0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Detroit vs Denver	+0.0+0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.0-0.1-0.0
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.0+0.1+0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.0*+0.4+0.0
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.0*-0.2-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington vs Philadelphia	-2.3-0.0+2.3
Chicago vs Oakland	-0.0+0.3+0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.1-0.1+0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs St. Louis	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.0+0.1-0.0
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.0*+0.4+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		13	-	0	-	0	99		1
13	.5	12	-	1	-	0	100
13		12	-	0	-	1	86	10	4						0
		11	-	2	-	0	100
12	.5	11	-	1	-	1	77	17	5						2
12		11	-	0	-	2	52	26	17	1	1				2
		10	-	2	-	1	33	33	33
11	.5	10	-	1	-	2	33	24	31	2	4		0		5
11		10	-	0	-	3	10	30	25	12	10	1	1		11	1	1		0
		9	-	2	-	2	7	36	36		14		7
10	.5	9	-	1	-	3	3	16	19	19	19	3	3	0	15	2	1		0
10		9	-	0	-	4	0	7	5	20	15	11	7	1	15	10	7	1	1	0	0
		8	-	2	-	3		5	7	26	21	14	2	2	14	2	5
9	.5	8	-	1	-	4		1	0	9	7	18	15	3	8	15	15	3	4	1	0
9		8	-	0	-	5		0	0	3	2	12	9	8	2	14	10	15	12	8	4	1	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	4				2	4	11	11	11	2	16	9	10	9	9	5	1	1
8	.5	7	-	1	-	5				0	0	4	6	12	0	4	1	15	10	17	17	9	4	1	0
		6	-	3	-	4													50	50
8		7	-	0	-	6				0	0	1	1	8		1	0	6	2	6	11	14	15	13	10	6	3	1	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	5						1		6				8	2	6	13	17	12	16	9	9	2	1
7	.5	6	-	1	-	6						0	0	5				0		0	0	1	6	13	22	22	17	9	3	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	5																				100
7		6	-	0	-	7						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	1	2	6	10	15	17	16	14	9	5	2	1	0	0
		5	-	2	-	6								1									1	7	5	9	19	18	9	18	9	3	3	1
6	.5	5	-	1	-	7								0												0	1	4	10	19	24	21	13	6	1	0	0
		4	-	3	-	6																								67	33
6		5	-	0	-	8								0											0	0	0	1	2	6	12	18	21	19	13	6	2	0
		4	-	2	-	7																							1	7	6	16	21	27	14	8
5	.5	4	-	1	-	8																								0	1	3	11	22	29	22	9	2
		3	-	3	-	7																															100
5		4	-	0	-	9								0																0	0	1	3	10	20	29	26	10
		3	-	2	-	8																												19	23	19	23	17
4	.5	3	-	1	-	9																											0	1	5	24	40	29
4		3	-	0	-	10																											0	0	2	12	36	50
		2	-	2	-	9																													7		36	57
3	.5	2	-	1	-	10																														3	22	75
3		2	-	0	-	11																													0	1	15	84
		1	-	2	-	10																																100
2	.5	1	-	1	-	11																															5	95
2		1	-	0	-	12																															2	98
1	-1.5																																					100

Total:							1	2	1	3	2	3	2	3	2	3	2	4	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4