Evo-Stik Northern Premier League Title Chances 2014 50/50

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Promoted			Chance will finish season at seed																								Relegated
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI

Skelmersdale	51		14	-	9	-	5	13	31.3	%	+6.4	45.4	%	+6.4	31	23	16	11	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						2.9	+0.53	No		-0.0	2	Skelmersdale United

Curzon Ashton	45	4	13	-	6	-	5	15	21.6		-3.5	35.5		-3.0	22	19	15	12	9	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		3.8	-0.17	0.0	%	-0.0	3	Curzon Ashton
Ashton United	40	5	11	-	7	-	5	8	12.9		-2.4	25.3		-2.3	13	14	13	12	11	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.0	-0.17	0.0		-0.0	6	Ashton United
Ilkeston	41	7	12	-	5	-	4	20	12.4		+2.5	24.7		+4.0	12	13	13	12	11	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.0	+0.73	0.0		-0.0	5	Ilkeston
Buxton	42	4	12	-	6	-	6	12	10.0		+2.1	22.1		+3.8	10	12	13	13	11	10	8	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.3	+0.76	0.0		-0.0	4	Buxton

Ramsbottom	36	7	11	-	3	-	7	9	4.6		-0.9	12.7		-1.2	5	6	8	9	9	10	9	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2	-0.16	0.1		-0.0	12	Ramsbottom United
Workington	37	4	10	-	7	-	7	4	1.9		-2.3	7.7		-4.4	2	4	5	7	8	9	9	10	9	9	8	7	5	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	8.3	-0.99	0.1		+0.0	10	Workington
Stourbridge	35	7	10	-	5	-	6	9	1.8		-1.0	7.1		-1.8	2	3	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	8.6	-0.36	0.2		-0.1	8	Stourbridge
Rushall Olympic	31	8	9	-	4	-	7	1	1.3		+0.3	5.5		+1.3	1	2	4	5	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	9.5	+0.97	0.7		-1.4	11	Rushall Olympic
Kings Lynn	35	6	10	-	5	-	7	3	0.9		-0.3	4.5		-0.6	1	2	3	4	6	7	8	9	9	10	9	9	8	6	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.5	-0.11	0.4		-0.2	13	Kings Lynn Town
Grantham	36	4	10	-	6	-	8	1	0.6		-0.5	3.8		-1.2	1	1	3	4	5	7	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	7	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.8	-0.34	0.4		-0.2	9	Grantham Town
Blyth	29	12	8	-	5	-	3	8	0.3		+0.1	2.0		+0.6	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	10	10	9	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	11.5	+0.99	2.2		-3.3	1	Blyth Spartans
Stamford	28	7	8	-	4	-	9	-7	0.2		-0.2	1.4		-0.6	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	11	11	10	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	12.3	-0.26	3.4		-0.7	15	Stamford
Whitby	32	4	8	-	8	-	8	-2	0.1		-0.1	1.0		-0.4	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	10	11	12	11	8	5	3	1	1	0	0	12.3	-0.26	2.5		-0.7	14	Whitby Town
Halesowen	29	8	7	-	8	-	5	10	0.1		-0.1	1.2		-0.5	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	11	11	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	12.4	-0.26	3.3		-0.7	7	Halesowen Town
Witton Albion	23	3	7	-	2	-	16	-14	0.0		-0.0	0.0		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	5	7	10	14	14	13	11	8	6	3	16.7	+0.99	28.7		-15.4	16	Witton Albion
Frickley	23	5	6	-	5	-	12	-11	0.0		-0.0	0.0		-0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	12	14	15	13	11	8	5	17.4	-0.01	36.5		-2.4	19	Frickley Athletic
Nantwich	22	4	6	-	4	-	14	-18	0.0		-0.0	0.0		-0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	7	11	13	14	14	13	11	7	17.9	-0.49	44.5		+5.0	17	Nantwich Town

Matlock Town	18	6	4	-	6	-	12	-10	0.0		-0.0	0.0		-0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	10	13	15	16	16	15	19.0	-0.38	62.0		+5.4	20	Matlock Town
Trafford	19	4	4	-	7	-	13	-15	0.0		-0.0	0.0		-0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	9	12	15	17	18	16	19.1	-0.38	65.3		+5.6	18	Trafford
Marine	13	8	2	-	7	-	11	-13	0.0		-0.0	0.0		-0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	9	12	15	19	28	19.8	-0.31	74.5		+4.6	22	Marine
Belper	16	3	3	-	7	-	15	-23	0.0		-0.0	0.0		-0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	10	13	16	20	27	19.8	-0.30	75.2		+4.7	21	Belper Town

Week of 12/20
Skelmersdale 3 Marine 1
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Skelmersdale	+8.5		+8.3		*No		+0.6
Curzon Ashton	-2.5		-2.1
Ashton United	-1.7		-1.5
Marine	No				+7.3		-0.5

Halesowen 2 Skelmersdale 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Skelmersdale	-7.7		-7.1				-0.5
Curzon Ashton	+2.3		+1.8
Halesowen			+0.7		-3.4		+1.0

Belper 2 Ilkeston 3
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ilkeston	+4.3		+5.7				+0.9
Nantwich					-1.1
Belper	No				+7.4		-0.5

Ashton United 4 Belper 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Skelmersdale	-1.4		-1.2
Ashton United	+4.0		+5.5				+0.8
Witton Albion					-1.2
Nantwich					-1.2
Matlock Town					-1.1
Belper	No				+8.2		-0.6

Buxton 3 Matlock Town 2
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton	+3.7		+5.4				+0.9
Witton Albion					-1.3
Frickley					-1.3
Nantwich					-1.3
Matlock Town					+8.7		-0.6
Trafford					-1.3
Marine					-1.1

Kings Lynn 2 Ramsbottom 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ramsbottom	-2.7		-4.3				-0.8
Kings Lynn	+0.4		+1.8		-0.9		+1.1

Blyth 1 Workington 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Workington	-1.8		-3.5				-0.9
Blyth			+0.9		-2.6		+1.0

Whitby 1 Stourbridge 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stourbridge	-1.7		-3.3				-0.9
Whitby			+0.6		-3.1		+1.0

Ilkeston 1 Witton Albion 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ilkeston	-1.3		-1.5				-0.2
Witton Albion					+2.0		-0.2
Frickley					-0.3
Nantwich					-0.3
Matlock Town					*-0.2
Belper					-0.3

Workington 2 Stamford 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Workington	+1.4		+3.2		-0.2		+1.0
Stamford	-0.3		-1.3		+1.5		-0.9

Nantwich 1 Buxton 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton	-1.1		-1.4				-0.2
Frickley					-0.4
Nantwich	No				+2.1		-0.2
Matlock Town					-0.3
Belper					*-0.2

Grantham 1 Blyth 7
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Grantham	-0.9		-2.4		+0.3		-0.9
Blyth			+0.6		-4.1		+1.0

Stourbridge 1 Halesowen 1
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stourbridge	-0.6		-1.0				-0.2
Halesowen			-0.3		+0.2		-0.2

Trafford 0 Rushall Olympic 3
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Rushall Olympic	+0.7		+1.9		-1.2		+1.0
Witton Albion					-1.1
Frickley					-1.2
Nantwich					-1.2
Matlock Town					-1.2
Trafford	No				+9.0		-0.6

Stamford 1 Grantham 1
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Grantham	-0.3		-0.7				-0.2
Stamford			-0.4		+0.2		-0.2

Frickley 1 Whitby 1
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby			-0.3				-0.2
Frickley					+2.0		-0.2
Matlock Town					-0.3
Trafford					-0.3

Witton Albion 3 Nantwich 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Witton Albion					-11.4		+0.8
Nantwich					+10.3		-0.7

Matlock Town 2 Trafford 4
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Matlock Town	No				+10.0		-0.7
Trafford					-10.3		+0.7

Week of 12/28
Ramsbottom vs SkelmersdaleIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Skelmersdale	22.629.041.4		37.443.654.5				3.53.02.4
Ramsbottom	7.63.82.2		17.511.58.6				6.27.48.0

Workington vs SkelmersdaleHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Skelmersdale	22.928.841.2		37.743.554.4				3.53.02.4
Workington	3.41.40.7		11.26.84.9				7.28.59.2

Ashton United vs Curzon AshtonHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Curzon Ashton	14.319.830.2		28.133.944.1		0.0NoNo		4.53.93.1
Ashton United	19.211.67.6		32.623.819.0				4.15.15.7

Stamford vs Curzon AshtonHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Curzon Ashton	15.419.629.2		29.033.743.3				4.43.93.1
Stamford	0.40.10.1		2.31.10.7		1.63.55.1		11.312.513.1

Ilkeston vs BuxtonHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ilkeston	18.111.17.6		31.723.318.7				4.25.25.8
Buxton	5.78.715.1		16.420.728.8				6.15.44.4

Ashton United vs Matlock TownHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ashton United	18.211.48.7		31.623.720.1				4.25.15.7
Matlock Town	No0.00.0				70.764.551.8		19.519.118.3

Grantham vs IlkestonHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ilkeston	8.310.917.5		19.223.131.2		0.00.0No		5.85.24.2
Grantham	1.10.40.2		5.93.22.1		0.1*0.30.6		8.710.010.7

Buxton vs WhitbyHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton	14.58.66.3		28.220.617.0				4.45.46.0
Whitby			0.40.81.7		3.92.61.0		13.212.611.3

Nantwich vs RamsbottomHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ramsbottom	2.73.97.0		9.211.516.9				8.07.36.2
Nantwich	0.0NoNo				33.846.753.7		17.218.118.5

Belper vs WorkingtonHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Workington	1.01.53.2		5.26.810.9				9.18.57.3
Belper			0.0NoNo		66.677.482.2		19.219.920.2

Rushall Olympic vs StourbridgeHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stourbridge	0.91.42.9		4.66.310.1		0.40.20.1		9.68.87.6
Rushall Olympic	2.31.00.6		8.04.83.4		0.2*0.71.1		8.49.710.4

Blyth vs StourbridgeHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stourbridge	0.91.42.9		4.76.310.0		0.4*0.20.1		9.58.87.6
Blyth	0.50.20.1		3.21.71.1		1.02.33.4		10.511.712.4

Witton Albion vs Rushall OlympicHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Rushall Olympic	0.71.02.2		3.64.77.8		1.10.60.2		10.49.78.5
Witton Albion	0.00.0No				19.930.336.6		15.916.917.4

Kings Lynn vs StamfordHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kings Lynn	1.50.60.4		6.73.92.8		0.1*0.40.7		8.59.710.5
Stamford	0.10.10.4		0.71.12.3		5.13.51.6		13.212.511.2

Grantham vs FrickleyHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Grantham	1.00.40.2		5.73.22.3		0.10.30.7		8.810.010.7
Frickley	NoNo0.0				45.438.526.3		18.017.516.6

Whitby vs BlythHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Blyth	0.10.20.5		1.21.73.2		3.5*2.31.0		12.411.710.5
Whitby			1.70.80.5		1.02.64.0		11.312.513.2

Halesowen vs MarineHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Halesowen	0.30.10.0		1.91.00.6		1.3*3.35.2		11.412.613.2
Marine	NoNo0.0		No0.00.0		81.576.766.0		20.219.919.2

Marine vs Witton AlbionHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Witton Albion	No0.00.0				37.630.019.0		17.416.915.9
Marine	0.0NoNo				65.376.682.3		19.219.920.2

Frickley vs NantwichHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Frickley	0.0NoNo				24.938.047.2		16.517.518.1
Nantwich	NoNo0.0				55.446.432.3		18.618.117.1

Matlock Town vs BelperHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Matlock Town	0.0NoNo				50.664.272.0		18.319.119.6
Belper			NoNo0.0		83.477.365.5		20.319.919.2

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Evo-Stik Northern Premier League Title Chances 2014 50/50

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