These are the games that affect us. Each game can have 2 kinds of impact on our team:

1. How many percentage points it changed our chance of making the playoffs (or winning the title for sports without playoffs).
2. (If in parenthesis,) how many positions it changed our average regular season finishing position, with the signed flipped so negative is bad. (More interesting when you have locked a playoff spot and are fighting for a better seed.)

If a number is missing it means it was 0 or really close to 0. I’m trying to hide false positives, numbers that are smaller then the simulations margin for error, but I don’t have it down to a science yet.

The day or week’s total impact on your team is shown between the best and worst case outcomes. Future games show separate impacts for each outcome. The games are ordered by total impact. To help understand why the game matters you can hover your mouse over it to hightlight it in the standings.

How do I know? First I get a baseline by running the simulation with the current standings. Then, for each upcoming game I:

• Pretend the home team wins 1-0 and run the simulation on the remaining games.
• Pretend the away team wins 1-0 and run the simulation on the remaining games.
• For soccer, pretend the teams draw 0-0 and run the simulation on the remaining games.
• For hockey, pretend each team loses in overtime 0-1 and run the simulation on the remaining games.
• Compare each team’s new pretend chance of making the playoffs (and seed) with the actual baseline chance to see how much it goes up or down.