Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.03 to 56.3%
2-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Baltimore vs Cincinnati-11.2*+0.8+11.2
-1.1+0.0+1.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh+1.4*+0.7-1.4
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland-0.9*-0.2+0.9
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia-0.5*+0.2+0.5
Green Bay vs Kansas City+0.4*-0.1-0.4
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Detroit vs Denver+0.4*-0.8-0.4
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego+0.3*-2.9-0.3
+0.0*-0.2-0.0
New England vs Jacksonville-0.3*-0.2+0.3
Houston vs Tampa Bay-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cincinnati vs Kansas City+9.6*-0.2-9.7
+1.0*-0.0-1.0
San Diego vs Cleveland+1.0*+0.3-1.0
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore-0.5*-1.3+0.5
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants-0.4*-1.1+0.4
-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Denver vs Minnesota-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Houston+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-D-Lplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
15.5-16In10069*
1513-0-1In1000412
14.512-1-1In10037
1412-0-2In9912,623
11-2-1In1003
13.511-1-2In973232
1311-0-3In9360010,498
10-2-2In831712
12.510-1-3In891000956
9-3-2In1001
1210-0-4In7422203028,532
9-2-3In84113338
11.59-1-4In613140402,271
8-3-3In1001
119-0-5100.0%3740121101057,100
8-2-4In423988171
10.58-1-599.9174023315204,114
7-3-4In1003
108-0-697.9625288219200085,004
7-2-599.282629102061128
9.57-1-692.2192918181871005,333
6-3-5In1002
97-0-768.3031418122220930098,140
6-2-672.91122012281593144
8.56-1-736.304182122523114005,365
5-3-6In1001
86-0-814.101814152323157200085,572
5-2-719.521351622231162128
7.55-1-83.904017192825133003,988
4-3-7Out50502
75-0-91.00100281826241561056,548
4-2-8Out27202720147285
6.54-1-90.20019243224912,289
3-3-8Out1001
64-0-100.0001413273120527,995
3-2-9Out514243219537
5.53-1-10Out028283923886
53-0-11Out00419423510,390
2-2-10Out455511
4.52-1-11Out063262248
42-0-12Out0223752,617
1-2-11Out25754
3.51-1-12Out79343
31-0-13Out595422
2.50-1-13Out1004
20-0-14Out19972
Total:56.3%1311107877665544322492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Lottery seed
Baltimore vs Cincinnati+2.2-0.2-2.2
Minnesota vs San Diego+0.0+0.5-0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland+0.1*-0.1-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Miami vs Buffalo+0.0*+0.4-0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Denver+0.0*+0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs Kansas City-2.0-0.2+2.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore+0.1+0.2-0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina-0.0+0.1+0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay-0.0*-0.2+0.1
Seattle vs Detroit-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Houston+0.0*+0.6-0.0
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants-0.0*+0.3+0.0
Denver vs Minnesota-0.0*+0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1513-0-110000
14.512-1-1100
1412-0-29721
11-2-1100
13.511-1-29353
1311-0-38586000
10-2-28317
12.510-1-375151000
9-3-2100
1210-0-4522221120300
9-2-355291133
11.59-1-4313028340400
8-3-3100
119-0-5122530101111010110
8-2-411313010881
10.58-1-521521192123013220
7-3-4100
108-0-60681819981156902000
7-2-58101620991129511
9.57-1-610910191538101537100
6-3-55050
97-0-7003312117391291311620000
6-2-612101382102087137
8.56-1-700451302210112018104100
5-3-6100
86-0-80012701041510151615127310000
5-2-721122325131118167722
7.55-1-800400026132124179310
4-3-75050
75-0-90010001249141718151162100
4-2-8121313181914965
6.54-1-90014917242414620
3-3-8100
64-0-1000000251017212015720
3-2-9115192716814
5.53-1-100131022302393
53-0-11013819292812
2-2-10936459
4.52-1-1106234329
42-0-12002103454
1-2-11252550
3.51-1-1221286
31-0-1311188
2.50-1-13100
20-0-14397
Total:76656443534333333332222222211111