SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Arizona Cardinals Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.07 to 57.7%

2-0-0 1.000

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Arizona vs San Francisco	+11.7*+1.2-11.7		+1.1+0.0-1.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-1.3*+0.8+1.3		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Chicago	-0.6*-0.2+0.6		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.5*+0.4-0.5		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.4*+0.2+0.4
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.3*-1.4+0.3		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia			+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Detroit vs Denver			-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Green Bay vs Kansas City			-0.0*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Arizona vs St. Louis	+11.8*+1.0-11.8		+1.2*-0.0-1.2
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-1.0*+0.8+1.0		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Detroit	-0.6*-0.4+0.6		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.5*+0.9+0.5		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Oakland	-0.4*-0.2+0.4
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.3*+0.8-0.3		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.3*+0.7-0.3
Washington vs Philadelphia			-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Arizona finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

15.5	-16						In		100																75	*
15		13	-	0	-	1	In		99	1															395
14	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		100																46
14		12	-	0	-	2	In		99	1															2,635
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		97	3															237
13		11	-	0	-	3	In		92	7	0		0												10,363
		10	-	2	-	2	In		89	11															18
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		88	12	0		0												927
12		10	-	0	-	4	In		73	22	2	0	2	0											28,343
		9	-	2	-	3	In		78	22															27
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	In		59	32	5	0	4	0											2,309
		8	-	3	-	3	In		100																1
11		9	-	0	-	5	100.0	%	37	39	12	1	11	1	0										56,856
		8	-	2	-	4	In		36	39	16		8												74
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	99.9		18	40	22	3	15	2	0										3,975
		7	-	3	-	4	In			50	50														2
10		8	-	0	-	6	98.5		7	25	26	9	23	9	1	0	0								85,722
		7	-	2	-	5	99.2		4	23	30	8	31	4	1										133
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6	95.3		1	11	28	18	21	17	4	0	0								5,368
		6	-	3	-	5	In				50	50													2
9		7	-	0	-	7	72.7		0	3	13	17	15	24	18	7	2	0	0	0					97,252
		6	-	2	-	6	71.5			3	17	14	15	23	20	7	2								151
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7	44.0			0	4	19	4	17	27	19	7	2	0	0					5,497
		5	-	3	-	6	50.0					33		17			50								6
8		6	-	0	-	8	16.4			0	1	8	1	6	18	25	22	13	5	1	0	0	0		85,677
		5	-	2	-	7	14.5					7	2	6	12	27	27	11	8		1				131
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8	4.9				0	5	0	0	3	10	24	29	20	7	2	0			4,005
7		5	-	0	-	9	1.0				0	1	0	0	1	3	10	20	26	22	12	4	1	0	56,862
		4	-	2	-	8	1.3					1				4	11	20	22	29	8	5			76
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9	0.2					0				0	1	3	15	28	31	17	5	0	2,242
6		4	-	0	-	10	0.0					0				0	0	1	6	17	28	29	16	3	28,346
		3	-	2	-	9	Out											3	18	21	35	18	6		34
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out											0	1	3	13	34	33	16	925
5		3	-	0	-	11	Out												0	1	6	23	40	29	10,339
		2	-	2	-	10	Out															27	40	33	15
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out														1	7	34	58	258
4		2	-	0	-	12	Out														0	4	28	68	2,589
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																	100	1
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																11	89	38
3		1	-	0	-	13	Out															0	10	90	403
2	-2.5						Out																	100	77	*

Total:							57.7	%	13	11	9	7	9	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	1	492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
Arizona vs San Francisco	-2.4-0.3+2.4
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.2*-0.1-0.2
Carolina vs New Orleans	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Chicago	+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.0*-0.4+0.0
Detroit vs Denver	-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay	-0.0*-0.3+0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Arizona vs St. Louis	-2.4-0.3+2.4
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.1*-0.1-0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Washington vs Philadelphia	+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Seattle vs Detroit	+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Atlanta vs Houston	+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.0*-0.3-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		13	-	0	-	1	99		1
14	.5	12	-	1	-	1	100
14		12	-	0	-	2	97	2	1
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	92	5	3
13		11	-	0	-	3	85	8	7	0	0				0
		10	-	2	-	2	78	11	11
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	72	15	12		0				0
12		10	-	0	-	4	51	22	21	1	2	0	0		2	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3	41	37	22
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	30	29	29	3	5		0		4	0	0
		8	-	3	-	3		100
11		9	-	0	-	5	12	25	29	10	11	1	1	0	10	1	1	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4	15	22	26	14	14	3			8
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	2	16	20	19	20	2	3		13	2	2		0
		7	-	3	-	4				50	50
10		8	-	0	-	6	0	6	7	18	18	9	8	1	15	8	8	1	1	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5		4	7	17	17	13	6	2	17	14	3	1	1
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6		1	0	11	9	18	14	3	7	14	14	4	4	1	0
		6	-	3	-	5						50	50
9		7	-	0	-	7		0	0	3	2	11	11	7	3	12	12	12	9	9	6	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6				3	4	13	8	6	3	12	13	10	9	8	6	5	1
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7				0	0	4	5	13	0	4	1	16	9	17	16	10	3	1	0
		5	-	3	-	6								33			17				17	17	17
8		6	-	0	-	8				0	0	1	1	7		1	0	6	1	2	6	10	14	16	15	11	6	2	1	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7								7		2		6	1		8	11	17	15	12	14	2	5	1
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8						0	0	4		0		0		0	0	1	6	13	21	23	18	10	3	1	0
7		5	-	0	-	9						0	0	1		0		0			0	0	0	1	2	5	9	14	18	19	16	10	4	1	0	0
		4	-	2	-	8								1											3		9	14	22	20	16	7	5	3
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9								0												0	1	3	8	18	24	23	16	6	1	0	0
6		4	-	0	-	10								0												0	0	0	1	2	6	13	19	23	20	11	4	1
		3	-	2	-	9																								3	12	18	21	18	18	12
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10																									1	3	10	20	28	26	12	1
5		3	-	0	-	11																										0	1	5	15	30	33	16
		2	-	2	-	10																													27	47	13	13
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11																											0	1	5	21	41	33
4		2	-	0	-	12																												0	1	8	33	59
		1	-	2	-	11																															100
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															21	79
3		1	-	0	-	13																														1	12	87
2	-2.5																																					100

Total:							7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	5	4	4	4	2	3	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1