SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Cleveland Browns Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.04 to 34.9%

1-0-1 .500

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cleveland vs Oakland	+9.1*-0.5-9.0		+1.1*-0.1-1.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+1.0*-0.1-1.0		+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.9*-1.5-0.9		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.5*-0.0+0.5
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.4*-1.4-0.4
Detroit vs Denver	+0.4*+0.3-0.4
Houston vs Tampa Bay	-0.3*+0.9+0.3		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego			+0.0+0.1-0.0
Tennessee vs Indianapolis			+0.0*+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
San Diego vs Cleveland	-9.2*+0.4+9.2		-1.1*+0.1+1.1
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-1.0*-1.8+1.0		-0.1-0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.6*+1.0+0.6		-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.4*+0.7+0.4		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.3*-0.8+0.3		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.3*-0.8-0.3		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Atlanta vs Houston			+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Miami vs NY Jets			-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cleveland finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14.5	-15						In		100																69	*
14		13	-	0	-	1	In		98	2															352
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		100																52
13		12	-	0	-	2	In		92	8			0												2,572
		11	-	2	-	1	In		100																1
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		86	11			3												223
		10	-	3	-	1	In		100																1
12		11	-	0	-	3	In		71	24	2	0	3	0											10,151
		10	-	2	-	2	In		79	21															14
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		58	31	5		6												882
11		10	-	0	-	4	99.9	%	32	40	13	1	12	1	0										28,417
		9	-	2	-	3	In		32	45	6	3	13												31
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	99.9		17	35	21	3	21	2	0										2,184
		8	-	3	-	3	In						100												1
10		9	-	0	-	5	97.2		5	22	27	9	22	12	3	0	0								56,946
		8	-	2	-	4	98.6		3	23	31	4	24	14	1										71
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5	90.6		0	8	24	15	22	22	8	1	0								4,043
		7	-	3	-	4	In				100														2
9		8	-	0	-	6	63.2		0	2	13	16	10	22	21	11	4	1	0	0					85,301
		7	-	2	-	5	68.3		1	2	15	20	11	19	17	11	3								123
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6	32.3			0	3	14	2	14	25	25	13	4	1	0					5,427
		6	-	3	-	5	Out								25	75									4
8		7	-	0	-	7	11.7			0	1	7	0	4	12	22	24	18	9	3	1	0	0		97,996
		6	-	2	-	6	14.6				1	10	1	3	10	18	28	19	6	3	2				157
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7	2.3				0	2		0	1	7	19	28	25	14	4	0	0		5,364
		5	-	3	-	6	Out										33	67							3
7		6	-	0	-	8	0.8				0	1		0	0	1	6	16	24	25	17	7	2	0	85,404
		5	-	2	-	7	1.5					2				2	5	14	21	25	23	8	2		130
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8	0.1					0				0	0	3	9	24	31	24	9	1	4,089
		4	-	3	-	7	Out												50	50					2
6		5	-	0	-	9	0.0					0					0	1	3	12	25	32	22	6	56,835
		4	-	2	-	8	Out											1	3	9	20	43	18	8	80
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out												0	1	10	28	40	21	2,260
5		4	-	0	-	10	Out												0	0	4	18	41	36	28,349
		3	-	2	-	9	Out															19	32	48	31
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out														1	5	33	61	923
4		3	-	0	-	11	Out													0	0	3	24	73	10,609
		2	-	2	-	10	Out																56	44	9
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out																9	91	242
3		2	-	0	-	12	Out															0	8	92	2,603
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																	100	2
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																3	98	40
2		1	-	0	-	13	Out																1	99	364
		0	-	2	-	12	Out																	100	1
1	-1.5						Out																	100	72	*

Total:							34.9	%	5	6	7	6	5	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cleveland vs Oakland	-2.1+0.3+2.1
Seattle vs Chicago	-0.1+0.4+0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Detroit vs Denver	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.0*+0.2+0.0
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Diego vs Cleveland	+2.2-0.1-2.2
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	+0.1+0.4-0.1
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.0-0.4+0.0
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	*+0.0-0.4-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	+0.0+0.2-0.0
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.1*-0.3-0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.0+0.1+0.0
Seattle vs Detroit	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.1*+0.3+0.0
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.0*-0.4-0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15		14	-	0	-	0	98	2
14	.5	13	-	1	-	0	100
14		13	-	0	-	1	96	2	2
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	98	2
13		12	-	0	-	2	82	10	8	0					0
		11	-	2	-	1	100
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	72	14	11						3
		10	-	3	-	1	100
12		11	-	0	-	3	47	24	23	1	2	0	0		3	0	0
		10	-	2	-	2	57	21	21
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	30	28	28	3	5	0			6
11		10	-	0	-	4	9	23	29	12	13	1	1		11	1	1		0
		9	-	2	-	3	19	13	26	19	6		3		13
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	2	15	18	17	19	3	3		18	2	2	0	0
		8	-	3	-	3									100
10		9	-	0	-	5	0	5	6	17	17	10	8	1	14	8	11	1	3	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4		3	8	14	17	14	4		14	10	14		1
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5		0	0	8	9	14	12	2	9	13	19	3	8	1	0
		7	-	3	-	4						100
9		8	-	0	-	6		0	0	2	2	11	9	7	2	8	11	11	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5		1		2	2	13	14	7	1	10	10	9	18	11	2	1
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6				0	0	3	4	10	0	2	1	12	12	22	19	10	4	1	0		0
		6	-	3	-	5															75	25
8		7	-	0	-	7				0	0	1	1	6		0	0	3	3	9	15	17	16	12	8	4	2	1	0	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6						1	1	9		1		3	1	10	13	19	15	18	6	3	2
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7						0	0	2				0		0	0	2	6	14	23	23	17	8	3	1	0
		5	-	3	-	6																		33		67
7		6	-	0	-	8						0	0	1				0		0	0	0	1	4	8	13	17	17	15	11	7	3	1	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7								2										5	5	13	16	15	11	17	6	7	2
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8								0												0	1	4	11	18	25	22	13	5	1	0
		4	-	3	-	7																						50			50
6		5	-	0	-	9								0												0	0	1	3	8	14	20	21	17	11	5	1	0
		4	-	2	-	8																							1	10	18	20	14	20	9	8	1
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9																							0	0	1	3	11	23	28	22	10	2
5		4	-	0	-	10																								0	0	1	4	12	22	28	23	9
		3	-	2	-	9																											3	19	32	23	13	10
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10																											0	2	6	23	42	28
4		3	-	0	-	11																											0	0	3	14	37	46
		2	-	2	-	10																														33	33	33
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11																														1	27	72
3		2	-	0	-	12																													0	1	17	82
		1	-	2	-	11																																100
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															5	95
2		1	-	0	-	13																															3	97
		0	-	2	-	12																																100
1	.5	0	-	1	-	13																																100
1		0	-	0	-	14																															1	99

Total:							2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2