Points
Chance Will Win Championship

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will win titleLibertadoresChance will finish season at seedSerie B
SaturdayPGW-D-LGD%Change%Change1234567891011121314151617181920Avg.Change%ChangeRPI9/25
FlamengoWCruzeiro 1-04514-3-32562.1%+15.898.6%+2.16220942110000000000001.8+0.510.0%-0.01InternacionalClube de Regatas do Flamengo
PalmeirasLFortaleza 0-13911-6-31515.7-6.986.5-3.01625181396432111000000003.7-0.350.0+0.02CSASociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
SantosLGremio 0-13711-4-51010.0-4.978.6-4.310191714118653221100000004.5-0.420.1+0.05at FluminenseSantos Futebol Clube
InternacionalLChapecoense 0-13310-3-773.1-2.054.4-7.03811111110987654321100006.6-0.620.7+0.38at FlamengoSport Club Internacional
CorinthiansTBahia 0-0338-9-392.4-0.750.6-0.92791111101097654321110006.9-0.120.9+0.23at ChapecoenseSport Club Corinthians Paulista
Sao PauloLBotafogo 0-1328-8-471.7-1.344.1-7.3258910101098765432110007.5-0.711.4+0.74GoiasSao Paulo Futebol Clube
BahiaTCorinthians 0-0328-8-461.7-0.544.1-1.1258910101098765432110007.5-0.161.4+0.36BotafogoEsporte Clube Bahia
GremioWSantos 1-0318-7-561.2+0.538.1+11.4146899999876543211008.1+1.132.1-1.67AvaiGremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
BotafogoWSao Paulo 1-0309-3-801.0+0.433.9+10.5135789999876543211008.5+1.112.6-1.99at BahiaBotafogo de Futebol e Regatas
Atletico-MGLAvai 0-1278-3-900.3-0.317.9-5.50124567889998765321110.6-0.917.6+3.010Vasco da GamaClube Atletico Mineiro
Athletico-PRLVasco da Gama 0-1268-2-1050.2-0.214.2-4.90123456788999876432111.2-0.959.9+3.913FortalezaClube Athletico Paranaense
Vasco da GamaWAthletico-PR 1-0267-5-8-70.2+0.113.1+5.10123455678999876532111.4+1.0011.3-5.111at Atletico-MGClub de Regatas Vasco da Gama
FortalezaWPalmeiras 1-0257-4-9-30.1+0.010.3+4.20112345678899987643112.0+0.9514.4-5.712at Athletico-PRFortaleza Esporte Clube
GoiasWFluminense 1-0247-3-10-140.1+0.07.8+3.30011234567899998754212.6+0.9218.1-6.614at Sao PauloGoias Esporte Clube
CearaLCSA 0-1226-4-1000.0-0.04.1-2.100011223456791010101087414.0-1.0128.8+8.915CruzeiroCeara Sporting Club
CSAWCeara 1-0194-7-9-160.0+0.01.1+0.5000001112234679111213141316.0+0.6052.1-8.119at PalmeirasCentro Sportivo Alagoano
FluminenseLGoias 0-1185-3-12-90.0-0.00.9-0.7000000112234579111214151416.2-0.9655.3+12.418SantosFluminense Football Club
CruzeiroLFlamengo 0-1184-6-10-130.0-0.00.8-0.6000000111234568101214161616.4-0.9458.0+12.320at CearaCruzeiro Esporte Clube
ChapecoenseWInternacional 1-0174-5-11-140.00.5+0.2000000011223467101215172016.9+0.5063.7-7.016CorinthiansAssociacao Chapecoense de Futebol
AvaiWAtletico-MG 1-0163-7-10-140.0-0.00.3+0.100000000112234681114192717.4+0.4371.5-6.017at GremioAvai Futebol Clube

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 9/21
Cruzeiro 0 Flamengo 1
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Flamengo+9.2
+1.9
No
+0.4
Palmeiras-3.5
Santos-2.5
Internacional-0.9
Corinthians-0.6
Sao Paulo-0.6
Vasco da Gama-0.6
Fortaleza-0.8
Goias-0.9
Ceara-0.8
CSA-1.1
Fluminense-1.2
Cruzeiro-0.7
+8.4
-0.7
Chapecoense-0.9
Avai-0.8
Fortaleza 1 Palmeiras 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Flamengo+2.7
Palmeiras-5.5
-4.2
-0.5
Santos+1.1
Fortaleza+3.4
-7.1
+1.0
Goias+0.7
CSA+0.9
Fluminense+1.0
Cruzeiro+0.9
Chapecoense+0.8
Avai+0.7
Santos 0 Gremio 1
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Flamengo+1.8
Palmeiras+1.0
Santos-4.4
-6.2
-0.6
Gremio+0.6
+9.1
-2.0
+1.0
Internacional 0 Chapecoense 1
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Flamengo+0.8
Santos+0.3
+0.6
Internacional-2.0
-8.3
+0.3
-0.7
Corinthians+0.9
Sao Paulo+1.0
Bahia+1.0
Gremio+0.8
+0.2
Botafogo+0.7
+0.3
Atletico-MG+0.7
+0.3
Athletico-PR+0.6
+0.4
Vasco da Gama+0.3
+0.7
Fortaleza+0.3
+0.8
Goias+0.2
+0.9
Ceara+0.3
+0.8
CSA+1.0
Fluminense+1.1
Cruzeiro+1.1
Chapecoense+0.2
-9.0
+0.6
Avai+0.8
Botafogo 1 Sao Paulo 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo-1.3
-9.6
+0.5
-0.8
Botafogo+0.5
+8.8
-2.4
+1.1
Corinthians 0 Bahia 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Corinthians-0.6
-2.3
-0.2
Bahia-0.5
-2.5
-0.2
Avai 1 Atletico-MG 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Santos+0.5
Internacional+0.7
Corinthians+0.7
Sao Paulo+0.8
Bahia+0.7
Gremio+0.6
Botafogo+0.6
Atletico-MG-0.3
-6.5
+2.4
-0.9
Goias+0.7
CSA+0.7
Fluminense+0.7
Cruzeiro+0.7
Avai-8.1
+0.6
Vasco da Gama 1 Athletico-PR 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Athletico-PR-0.2
-6.0
+2.9
-0.9
Vasco da Gama+4.3
-6.4
+1.1
CSA 1 Ceara 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Ceara-2.5
+7.0
-0.9
CSA+0.5
-10.7
+0.8
Cruzeiro+0.5
Goias 1 Fluminense 0
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Goias+2.6
-8.8
+1.0
Fluminense-0.8
+9.4
-0.8
Flamengo vs InternacionalIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Flamengo71.760.153.8
99.5*98.697.6
NoNo0.0
1.51.82.0
Palmeiras12.516.818.1
87.086.785.9
Internacional1.12.45.5
45.651.765.0
1.10.70.2
7.46.85.7
Palmeiras vs CSAHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Flamengo58.663.364.9
1.81.71.7
Palmeiras21.413.811.2
92.185.481.6
3.13.84.2
CSA0.50.82.0
60.755.041.5
16.716.215.1
Fluminense vs SantosHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Santos6.78.514.2
72.076.986.2
5.14.73.8
Fluminense1.60.60.3
44.858.263.9
15.416.516.9
Chapecoense vs CorinthiansHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Corinthians1.31.93.8
41.748.061.2
1.50.90.3
7.77.16.0
Chapecoense0.90.30.2
53.766.871.7
16.117.117.5
Bahia vs BotafogoHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Bahia2.91.30.9
55.741.534.3
0.5*1.42.3
6.57.78.4
Botafogo0.50.81.8
24.831.244.7
4.02.91.1
9.58.87.4
Sao Paulo vs GoiasHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo2.81.30.9
55.041.435.0
0.5*1.42.3
6.57.78.4
Goias4.36.412.2
24.019.611.3
13.512.911.5
Gremio vs AvaiHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Gremio2.10.90.6
48.335.129.7
0.8*2.13.4
7.18.49.0
AvaiNo0.00.0
0.10.20.6
78.974.462.3
18.017.716.8
Atletico-MG vs Vasco da GamaHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Atletico-MG0.60.20.1
25.315.712.0
3.88.111.0
9.410.811.5
Vasco da Gama0.10.10.3
8.211.119.3
15.812.26.3
12.411.710.3
Athletico-PR vs FortalezaHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Athletico-PR0.40.10.1
20.612.29.1
5.310.614.2
10.011.412.1
Fortaleza0.00.10.2
6.28.615.5
19.715.58.3
13.012.310.9
Ceara vs CruzeiroHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Ceara6.53.22.2
19.030.637.6
12.914.214.8
Cruzeiro0.30.51.4
67.560.946.7
17.116.715.6
Week of 9/28
Flamengo vs Sao PauloIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Flamengo71.459.954.2
99.5*98.697.6
No0.00.0
1.51.82.0
Palmeiras12.416.718.3
86.986.785.9
Sao Paulo0.61.33.2
35.441.354.7
2.21.50.5
8.47.86.5
Internacional vs PalmeirasHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Palmeiras10.913.921.6
81.085.792.6
4.33.83.1
Internacional5.12.51.5
65.551.845.1
0.2*0.71.1
5.66.87.4
Santos vs CSAHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Santos14.28.56.7
86.376.972.0
3.84.75.1
CSA0.50.82.0
60.854.941.5
16.716.215.1
Corinthians vs Vasco da GamaHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Corinthians3.81.91.3
61.748.241.1
0.3*0.91.5
6.07.17.8
Vasco da Gama0.10.10.3
8.111.119.5
15.712.26.4
12.411.710.3
Avai vs BahiaHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Bahia0.91.32.8
35.341.354.8
2.3*1.40.5
8.47.86.6
Avai0.60.20.1
62.374.478.8
16.817.718.0
Fluminense vs GremioHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Gremio0.60.92.1
29.735.148.3
3.4*2.10.8
9.08.47.1
Fluminense0.00.0No
1.60.60.3
44.758.264.0
15.416.516.9
Fortaleza vs BotafogoHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Botafogo0.50.81.8
25.431.144.1
4.12.81.1
9.58.87.5
Fortaleza0.20.10.0
15.68.76.1
8.515.619.5
10.912.313.0
Atletico-MG vs CearaHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Atletico-MG0.50.20.1
25.215.712.1
3.78.011.2
9.410.811.5
Ceara2.13.26.6
36.830.919.6
14.814.212.9
Athletico-PR vs ChapecoenseHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Athletico-PR0.40.10.1
20.312.29.4
5.110.514.4
10.111.412.1
Chapecoense0.20.30.9
72.266.753.3
17.517.116.1
Goias vs CruzeiroHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Goias11.86.44.7
10.719.324.9
11.612.913.6
Cruzeiro0.30.51.4
67.260.946.9
17.116.715.6

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Marcos Vilhena for adding this league.