Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.04 to 33%
1-0-1   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Green Bay vs Kansas City-7.5*+0.8+7.5
-0.8*+0.1+0.8
Detroit vs Denver+1.3*-0.4-1.3
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego+1.0*+0.8-1.0
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland+0.6*+1.1-0.6
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia-0.5*+0.4+0.5
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh+0.4*+0.2-0.4
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
New England vs Jacksonville-0.4*+1.7+0.3
Baltimore vs Cincinnati-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Tennessee vs Indianapolis-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cincinnati vs Kansas City-9.3*+1.3+9.4
-1.1+0.1+1.1
Denver vs Minnesota-1.1*+2.3+1.1
-0.1+0.2+0.1
Chicago vs Oakland+0.9*-0.9-0.9
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants-0.7*-0.5+0.7
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland-0.5*+0.2+0.5
Atlanta vs Houston+0.1-0.2-0.0
Miami vs NY Jets-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Kansas City finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-D-Lplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-15In10073*
1413-0-1In9820389
13.512-1-1In10039
1312-0-2In927012,663
12.511-1-2In851302249
1211-0-3In7121207010,342
10-2-2In45361811
11.510-1-3In58285090926
9-3-2In1001
1110-0-4100.0%3234101202028,213
9-2-3In4221162138
10.59-1-499.9163319226402,247
8-3-3In1001
109-0-596.15182063116300057,043
8-2-495.25241932916563
9.58-1-589.517181226269204,019
7-3-4In1001
98-0-657.50281013262513410085,464
7-2-553.3271072635111107
8.57-1-626.60292132926144105,339
6-3-5Out50504
87-0-77.900314132225199310097,551
6-2-66.8313172424185311148
7.56-1-71.31017173026134105,265
5-3-6Out1001
76-0-80.30000261524251772085,141
5-2-7Out241923221912120
6.55-1-80.000029253223814,008
65-0-90.00001312253222657,371
4-2-8Out412253020992
5.54-1-9Out01102941192,176
54-0-10Out00418423528,542
3-2-9Out4429253824
4.53-1-10Out00063262882
43-0-11Out02257210,472
2-2-10Out33679
3.52-1-11Out1090263
32-0-12Out08912,658
1-2-11Out1004
2.51-1-12Out69435
21-0-13Out298373
1-1.5Out10065*
Total:33.0%5553878777777665492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Lottery seed
Green Bay vs Kansas City+2.0-0.2-2.0
New England vs Jacksonville+0.0-0.3-0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh+0.1-0.3-0.0
Detroit vs Denver-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland-0.0-0.1+0.0
Miami vs Buffalo+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Seattle vs Chicago+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Tennessee vs Indianapolis+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Baltimore vs Cincinnati+0.0*-0.2-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs Kansas City+2.2-0.4-2.2
Denver vs Minnesota+0.1-0.2-0.1
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville-0.0+0.2-0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Detroit+0.1*+0.1-0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Arizona vs St. Louis-0.0-0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Houston+0.0*+0.5-0.0
San Diego vs Cleveland+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Chicago vs Oakland-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
14.5-15100
1413-0-196320
13.512-1-1973
1312-0-28397001
12.511-1-273111302
1211-0-3462520120700
10-2-2453618
11.510-1-329302535090
9-3-2100
1110-0-492324111011019120
9-2-383416513321
10.59-1-42141716172223340
8-3-3100
109-0-504414128611912141300
8-2-451014118317111425
9.58-1-51067111021116224920
7-3-4100
98-0-6002175421012131815721000
7-2-527561714122512711
8.57-1-6002270221213222211410
6-3-5255025
87-0-7000030103261216171512731000
6-2-63112189172014116511
7.56-1-70100016142223189310
5-3-6100
76-0-8000000126101417171410621000
5-2-7124818919181361
6.55-1-8001410192521135100
65-0-900000261117212014720
4-2-81124112015221284
5.54-1-9001410203022102
54-0-100013920302711
3-2-988422913
4.53-1-10015214429
43-0-11002113651
2-2-107822
3.52-1-1132275
32-0-1211485
1-2-11100
2.51-1-12991
21-0-13496
1-1.5100
Total:23232222444344444443333333333332