Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 40.7%

1-0-1 .500

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
New England vs Jacksonville	-9.2*-1.2+9.2		-1.1*-0.2+1.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	-1.2*+0.1+1.2		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	-0.6*+1.1+0.6
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.4*-0.5-0.4		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.3*+1.7-0.3		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Detroit vs Denver	+0.3*+0.3-0.3
Minnesota vs San Diego			+0.0*-0.2-0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia			-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Baltimore vs Cincinnati			+0.0*+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	-11.3*-1.6+11.3		-1.3*-0.2+1.3
Atlanta vs Houston	+1.2*-0.1-1.2		+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.3*+1.3+0.3		-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.3*+0.5+0.3		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.3*-0.8-0.3		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Miami vs NY Jets			+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Jacksonville finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14.5	-15						In		100																67	*
14		13	-	0	-	1	In		99	1															418
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		97	3															36
13		12	-	0	-	2	In		94	5	0		0												2,569
		11	-	2	-	1	In		100																2
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		88	11	0														227
12		11	-	0	-	3	In		76	21	2	0	1												10,376
		10	-	2	-	2	In		63	25	13														8
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		59	31	7	1	2												950
11		10	-	0	-	4	100.0	%	39	41	14	1	5	0	0										28,245
		9	-	2	-	3	In		40	40	7	3	10												30
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	In		16	41	28	5	8	1											2,235
10		9	-	0	-	5	99.1		7	26	33	13	14	5	1	0	0								57,035
		8	-	2	-	4	In		8	28	32	15	12	5											92
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5	95.1		1	8	33	27	13	13	4	1	0								4,012
9		8	-	0	-	6	77.5		0	3	17	30	10	17	15	6	1	0	0	0					85,036
		7	-	2	-	5	75.4		1	4	15	29	14	13	11	9	4								114
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6	48.2			0	5	31	2	10	20	18	11	3	1	0	0				5,310
		6	-	3	-	5	50.0					50					50								2
8		7	-	0	-	7	23.4			0	1	18	1	4	13	21	21	14	6	2	0	0			97,727
		6	-	2	-	6	17.3				1	15		2	8	29	26	13	5	1	1				173
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7	9.6				0	9	0	0	1	6	16	27	24	13	4	1	0		5,407
		5	-	3	-	6	Out								33	33	33								3
7		6	-	0	-	8	3.3				0	3		0	0	2	7	17	25	24	14	5	1	0	85,343
		5	-	2	-	7	2.2					2				2	5	20	24	21	18	6	1		139
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8	0.8					1				0	0	1	9	23	32	24	9	1	4,002
		4	-	3	-	7	Out											25	25		25	25			4
6		5	-	0	-	9	0.2					0					0	1	4	12	26	31	20	6	57,145
		4	-	2	-	8	Out												3	7	27	30	25	8	100
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out												0	1	8	27	41	23	2,291
5		4	-	0	-	10	0.0					0						0	0	0	4	17	40	39	28,610
		3	-	2	-	9	Out														3	9	45	42	33
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out														1	4	30	66	906
4		3	-	0	-	11	Out														0	2	20	78	10,361
		2	-	2	-	10	Out															9		91	11
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out																6	94	250
3		2	-	0	-	12	Out														0	0	5	94	2,645
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																50	50	2
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																2	98	45
1	-2						Out																	100	471	*

Total:							40.7	%	5	7	8	12	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs Jacksonville	+2.2-0.1-2.2
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.0+0.3-0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Dallas vs Atlanta	+0.1*-0.6-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.0*-0.4+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+2.5-0.1-2.5
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland	-0.1*+0.4+0.1
Chicago vs Oakland	-0.0+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.0*-0.5+0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.0*-0.4+0.0
Miami vs NY Jets	-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14.5	-15						100
14		13	-	0	-	1	97	3	1
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	94	3	3
13		12	-	0	-	2	85	9	5		0				0
		11	-	2	-	1	100
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	77	11	11		0
12		11	-	0	-	3	51	25	20	1	2	0	0		1
		10	-	2	-	2	25	38	25		13
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	30	29	28	3	7		1		2	0
11		10	-	0	-	4	11	28	28	12	13	1	1	0	5	0	0		0
		9	-	2	-	3	17	23	27	13	7		3		10
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	2	14	22	20	25	3	5	0	7	1	1
10		9	-	0	-	5	0	6	7	20	21	12	12	1	10	5	5	0	1	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4		8	3	25	21	11	13	2	9	3	5
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5		1	0	8	11	22	23	4	5	8	11	2	4	1	0
9		8	-	0	-	6		0	0	3	3	14	17	13	2	8	9	9	8	8	5	2	0	0	0		0
		7	-	2	-	5		1		4	2	13	12	17	5	9	4	10	8	9	7	1
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6				0	0	5	10	21		2	1	9	8	15	15	9	3	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5								50									50
8		7	-	0	-	7				0	0	1	3	15		1	0	4	1	3	7	11	14	14	12	8	4	2	0	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6						1	3	12				2	1	3	9	14	13	16	15	7	2	1
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7						0	0	9		0		0		0	0	1	5	12	20	22	17	9	3	1	0
		5	-	3	-	6																		33	33	33
7		6	-	0	-	8						0	0	3				0		0		0	0	1	3	7	11	15	17	17	13	7	3	1	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7								2									1	3	4	11	9	19	13	19	11	5	4
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8								1												0	1	3	10	18	24	22	14	5	1	0	0
		4	-	3	-	7																					25		25	25	25
6		5	-	0	-	9								0												0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	17	9	3	0
		4	-	2	-	8																					1		1	2	4	16	20	22	26	6	2
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9																									0	3	9	20	31	24	11	2
5		4	-	0	-	10								0																0	0	0	2	7	17	29	31	14
		3	-	2	-	9																											3	3	12	21	27	33
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10																											0	1	6	22	39	31
4		3	-	0	-	11																											0	0	1	9	33	57
		2	-	2	-	10																														9	36	55
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11																													0	2	19	78
3		2	-	0	-	12																														0	13	87
		1	-	2	-	11																																100
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															4	96
2		1	-	0	-	13																															2	98
1	-1.5																																					100

Total:							2	3	3	4	4	4	5	6	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3