Carolina Panthers Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.05 to 53.7%
2-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Carolina vs New Orleans+10.8*+3.0-10.8
+1.1+0.5-1.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay+1.3*+0.2-1.3
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Dallas vs Atlanta+0.9*-0.8-0.9
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh-0.5*+1.2+0.5
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia+0.4*+1.8-0.4
+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego-0.4*-0.5+0.4
Detroit vs Denver-0.4*-0.1+0.4
Green Bay vs Kansas City-0.3*-0.4+0.3
-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Carolina-11.4*+1.3+11.4
-1.2+0.2+1.2
Atlanta vs Houston-1.4*-1.0+1.4
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota+0.5*-0.0-0.5
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chicago vs Oakland-0.4*-0.3+0.4
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants+0.3*-1.4-0.3
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas-0.3*-0.8+0.3
San Francisco vs Green Bay-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-D-Lplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-16In100523*
1412-0-2In99102,626
11-2-1In1004
13.511-1-2In9730235
1311-0-3In9460110,457
10-2-2In92812
12.510-1-3In89912931
1210-0-4In7321205028,492
9-2-3In77163331
11.59-1-4In612730902,209
8-3-3In1001
119-0-5100.0%3336121171057,034
8-2-4In39349116177
10.58-1-5100.0203517223304,054
108-0-697.5419249291320085,286
7-2-599.3517281127121137
9.57-1-693.719211328226105,456
97-0-761.30181511252312410097,754
6-2-661.9815122719172126
8.56-1-737.4021151829229205,425
5-3-6Out1002
86-0-88.200503919262211410084,997
5-2-78.52338192720115118
7.55-1-82.02021124292192004,007
4-3-7Out1002
75-0-90.400000310222922102057,128
4-2-8Out6112424266294
6.54-1-90.101414263118512,151
3-3-8Out50502
64-0-100.000016213428928,559
3-2-9Out62638151534
5.53-1-10Out0312314014919
53-0-11Out0212404610,264
2-2-10Out17503312
4.52-1-11Out083457221
42-0-12Out116842,582
1-2-11Out1001
3.51-1-12Out369132
31-0-13Out397368
2.50-1-13Out1002
20-0-14Out19967
Total:53.7%1210861087665554432492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Lottery seed
Carolina vs New Orleans-2.1-0.7+2.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia+0.0-0.5-0.0
Dallas vs Atlanta-0.1+0.1+0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay-0.1-0.1+0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh+0.0-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco+0.0+0.1-0.0
Seattle vs Chicago-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City-0.0*+0.2+0.0
New England vs Jacksonville+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Detroit vs Denver+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Carolina+2.3-0.0-2.2
Atlanta vs Houston+0.2*+0.1-0.2
Seattle vs Detroit-0.1*+0.0+0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Denver vs Minnesota-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Chicago vs Oakland+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City-0.0*+0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
14.5-16100
1412-0-297210
11-2-1100
13.511-1-294330
1311-0-3859601
10-2-28388
12.510-1-37514912
1210-0-4502320120500
9-2-352261633
11.59-1-4303124230900
8-3-3100
119-0-51023271011110151100
8-2-41623276911411
10.58-1-521818181522019430
108-0-6045131589118111212000
7-2-5531418101011891011
9.57-1-6109714102920174510
97-0-7001179621012131612731000
6-2-62687210171017106511
8.56-1-70023805117101918104100
5-3-6100
86-0-8000140032591316171410520000
5-2-71133410141617179311
7.55-1-80100016132224189410
4-3-75050
75-0-9000000012481215181713731000
4-2-8231272713141354
6.54-1-90001310192422146200
3-3-85050
64-0-10000014915202217930
3-2-91521122121633
5.53-1-100131022282492
53-0-11002718293014
2-2-10171742817
4.52-1-117213933
42-0-120183357
1-2-11100
3.51-1-1261678
31-0-131189
2.50-1-13100
20-0-14397
Total:75645342645444333333222222221111