SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

What might
today bring

Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 56.6%

2-0-0 1.000

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Dallas vs Atlanta	-9.8*+1.5+9.8		-1.0*+0.1+1.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+1.2*+2.1-1.2		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.6*+2.4+0.6		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.6*+0.4+0.6		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.5*-0.2+0.5		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.4*+0.2+0.4		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Detroit vs Denver	-0.3*-0.0+0.3		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia			+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco			-0.0*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Atlanta vs Houston	+8.1*-0.4-8.1		+0.8*+0.0-0.8
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.6*+1.9+0.6		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.5*-1.0-0.5		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.3*+1.2-0.3		+0.0+0.1-0.0
Tampa Bay vs Carolina			+0.0+0.2-0.0
Chicago vs Oakland			-0.0*-0.1+0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay			+0.0*+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Atlanta finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

15	-16						In		100																477	*
14	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		98	2															47
14		12	-	0	-	2	In		99	1			0												2,467
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		98	2															232
13		11	-	0	-	3	In		94	5	0		1												10,367
		10	-	2	-	2	In		83	17															12
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		89	9	0		1												896
12		10	-	0	-	4	In		75	19	1	0	5	0											28,502
		9	-	2	-	3	In		85	12	3														33
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	In		61	28	3	0	8												2,267
		8	-	3	-	3	In			100															1
11		9	-	0	-	5	100.0	%	38	35	9	1	16	1	0										57,106
		8	-	2	-	4	In		38	31	13		16	2											87
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	99.9		20	34	18	2	24	2	0										4,091
		7	-	3	-	4	In						100												2
10		8	-	0	-	6	98.3		7	22	22	7	31	11	2	0	0								85,552
		7	-	2	-	5	99.2		6	24	19	8	36	7	1										123
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6	93.4		1	8	20	13	30	21	6	1	0								5,350
		6	-	3	-	5	In					67	33												3
9		7	-	0	-	7	70.3		0	2	10	13	18	27	20	8	2	0	0						97,589
		6	-	2	-	6	79.9			1	13	19	19	28	15	4	1								144
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7	38.7			0	2	10	5	21	30	22	8	1	0						5,389
		5	-	3	-	6	Out								50			50							2
8		6	-	0	-	8	13.9			0	1	5	1	7	20	26	22	12	5	1	0	0	0		85,550
		5	-	2	-	7	15.0					4	3	8	21	27	21	13	3	1					120
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8	2.2				0	2	0	0	4	12	24	29	19	8	2	0	0		3,992
		4	-	3	-	7	Out										50			50					2
7		5	-	0	-	9	0.6				0	1	0	0	1	4	12	21	26	21	11	4	1	0	56,618
		4	-	2	-	8	Out									1	12	16	22	34	13	3			77
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out									0	1	5	15	30	28	16	4	1	2,201
6		4	-	0	-	10	0.0					0				0	0	1	7	18	29	28	14	3	28,603
		3	-	2	-	9	Out												5	11	37	21	26		19
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out												0	3	13	31	38	15	863
		2	-	3	-	9	Out															100			1
5		3	-	0	-	11	Out												0	1	8	25	40	26	10,310
		2	-	2	-	10	Out													8	15	31	23	23	13
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out														2	9	29	60	251
4		2	-	0	-	12	Out														0	5	27	68	2,541
		1	-	2	-	11	Out															50		50	2
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out															2	16	81	43
3		1	-	0	-	13	Out															1	12	87	406
		0	-	2	-	12	Out																	100	1
2	-2.5						Out																	100	80	*

Total:							56.6	%	13	10	7	5	12	9	8	7	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	1	492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dallas vs Atlanta	+2.1-0.4-2.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.0-0.2-0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay	-0.1*-0.3+0.1
Detroit vs Denver	+0.0-0.2-0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco	+0.1*-0.2-0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Atlanta vs Houston	-1.9-0.3+1.9
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	-0.1-0.4+0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.0-0.3-0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.1*-0.5+0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas	+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		13	-	0	-	1	100	0
14	.5	12	-	1	-	1	98		2
14		12	-	0	-	2	97	2	1						0
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	94	4	2
13		11	-	0	-	3	85	8	5		0				1
		10	-	2	-	2	83		17
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	73	16	9		0				1
12		10	-	0	-	4	52	23	18	1	1	0	0		4	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3	58	27	12		3
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	30	31	26	2	3		0		8	0
		8	-	3	-	3			100
11		9	-	0	-	5	12	26	26	9	9	0	1	0	15	1	1		0
		8	-	2	-	4	18	20	21	10	13				15	1	2
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	2	18	17	17	16	2	2		19	4	2	0	0
		7	-	3	-	4									50	50
10		8	-	0	-	6	0	7	6	16	14	7	6	0	20	11	10	1	2	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5		6	8	16	10	9	8		20	16	6	1	1
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6		1	0	8	7	13	10	2	10	20	17	5	5	1	0
		6	-	3	-	5							67			33
9		7	-	0	-	7		0	0	2	2	8	7	5	3	15	13	14	12	10	5	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6				1	2	10	10	9	3	17	14	14	7	7	3	1	1
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7				0	0	2	2	7	0	5	1	20	11	19	18	9	3	1	0
		5	-	3	-	6													50					50
8		6	-	0	-	8				0	0	1	1	4		1	0	7	2	5	9	13	15	16	13	9	4	1	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7								4		3	1	8	3	6	12	9	11	19	13	8	2	3
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8						0		2		0		0		0	0	2	5	14	22	23	17	9	3	1	0
		4	-	3	-	7																		50					50
7		5	-	0	-	9						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	0	2	4	8	12	16	18	17	12	7	3	1	0	0
		4	-	2	-	8																		3	3	10	9	13	19	17	17	9
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9																			0		1	3	10	19	24	23	12	6	1	0
6		4	-	0	-	10								0												0	0	0	1	4	9	15	21	22	16	9	3	0
		3	-	2	-	9																								5	5	5	26	42	16
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10																									0	2	9	20	27	27	12	2
		2	-	3	-	9																													100
5		3	-	0	-	11																									0	0	2	7	18	29	30	14
		2	-	2	-	10																													23	15	54	8
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11																													5	21	38	35
4		2	-	0	-	12																												0	1	9	33	56
		1	-	2	-	11																														50		50
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12																														5	23	72
3		1	-	0	-	13																														0	12	87
		0	-	2	-	12																																100
2	-2.5																																					100

Total:							7	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	6	6	5	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1