SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

St. Louis Rams Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 38%

1-0-1 .500

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+7.8*-2.1-7.8		+0.9-0.1-0.9
Seattle vs Chicago	-0.6*-0.1+0.6
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.6*-0.2-0.6		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.4*+1.1+0.4		-0.0+0.1+0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco	-0.3*-1.8+0.4		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.3*+1.4+0.3
Dallas vs Atlanta			+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Carolina vs New Orleans			+0.0*+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Arizona vs St. Louis	-11.8*-2.1+11.8		-1.3*-0.1+1.3
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.8*+0.6+0.8		-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Seattle vs Detroit	-0.5*-0.6+0.5
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.5*-0.9+0.5		-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.3*-0.7-0.3		+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.3*+0.1-0.3
New Orleans vs Dallas			+0.0-0.1+0.0
Tampa Bay vs Carolina			+0.0*-0.3-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the St. Louis finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14.5	-15						In		100																67	*
14		13	-	0	-	1	In		98	2															429
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		100																38
13		12	-	0	-	2	In		93	7	0		0												2,590
		11	-	2	-	1	In		100																2
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		91	9			0												253
12		11	-	0	-	3	In		73	22	2	0	3	0											10,387
		10	-	2	-	2	In		55	36	9														11
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		59	31	4		5	0											970
11		10	-	0	-	4	100.0	%	35	40	12	1	11	1	0										28,333
		9	-	2	-	3	In		21	48	12		18												33
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	99.9		18	38	19	3	20	2	0										2,243
10		9	-	0	-	5	98.4		6	24	27	9	23	9	1	0	0								57,027
		8	-	2	-	4	98.4		8	23	26	10	19	13	2										62
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5	93.0		1	9	22	14	26	21	6	1	0								3,900
		7	-	3	-	4	In					100													1
9		8	-	0	-	6	72.3		0	3	13	19	14	24	17	8	2	0	0	0					85,231
		7	-	2	-	5	66.9			2	11	13	16	25	20	10	3								127
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6	39.1			0	4	14	4	17	28	22	9	2	0	0					5,411
		6	-	3	-	5	50.0							50		50									2
8		7	-	0	-	7	16.9			0	1	9	1	6	14	23	23	15	6	2	0	0			97,838
		6	-	2	-	6	19.4				1	10	1	8	14	21	25	11	8	2					155
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7	3.0				0	3		0	3	11	23	28	20	9	2	0	0		5,447
		5	-	3	-	6	Out											25	75						4
7		6	-	0	-	8	1.3				0	1		0	0	3	9	19	25	23	14	5	1	0	84,996
		5	-	2	-	7	0.7					1					8	22	28	22	13	5	1		142
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8	0.1					0				0	1	5	14	28	30	17	5	0	4,045
		4	-	3	-	7	Out													50	50				2
6		5	-	0	-	9	0.0					0				0	0	1	5	15	27	30	18	4	57,155
		4	-	2	-	8	Out												3	16	30	24	23	4	74
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out												0	4	14	32	36	13	2,201
5		4	-	0	-	10	Out												0	1	6	21	41	31	28,564
		3	-	2	-	9	Out														7	21	49	23	43
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out													0	1	9	36	54	900
		2	-	3	-	9	Out																	100	1
4		3	-	0	-	11	Out													0	0	3	24	72	10,411
		2	-	2	-	10	Out																29	71	14
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out															0	17	83	263
		1	-	3	-	10	Out																	100	1
3		2	-	0	-	12	Out															0	7	93	2,566
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																	100	1
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																	100	41
2		1	-	0	-	13	Out																3	97	385
1	-1.5						Out																	100	66	*

Total:							38.0	%	5	6	7	7	6	7	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-2.1+0.1+2.1
Cleveland vs Oakland	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Arizona vs San Francisco	+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Detroit vs Denver	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Dallas vs Atlanta	-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Arizona vs St. Louis	+2.5+0.1-2.5
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	-0.1+0.6+0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.1-0.4-0.1
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Washington vs Philadelphia	-0.1+0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Oakland	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Miami vs NY Jets	-0.0+0.1+0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Atlanta vs Houston	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.0*+0.2+0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.0*+0.3+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14.5	-15						100
14		13	-	0	-	1	97	2	2
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	97	3
13		12	-	0	-	2	84	9	7		0				0
		11	-	2	-	1	100
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	80	11	9						0
12		11	-	0	-	3	49	24	21	1	2		0		3	0	0
		10	-	2	-	2	27	27	27	9	9
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	28	31	28	3	4				5	0	0
11		10	-	0	-	4	10	25	28	12	12	1	1	0	10	1	1		0
		9	-	2	-	3	9	12	33	15	12				18
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	2	16	20	18	16	2	3		16	4	2		0
10		9	-	0	-	5	0	6	6	18	16	11	9	1	13	10	8	1	1	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4		8	5	18	11	15	10		16	3	10	3	2
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5		1	0	9	7	14	11	2	9	17	17	5	6	1	0
		7	-	3	-	4							100
9		8	-	0	-	6		0	0	3	2	11	10	8	2	12	10	14	11	9	5	2	0	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5				2	1	10	8	5	2	14	9	16	13	13	5	2		1
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6				0	0	4	4	10	0	4	1	16	9	19	17	10	4	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5												50		50
8		7	-	0	-	7				0	0	1	1	8	0	1	0	6	1	4	9	13	15	15	13	8	4	1	0	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6						1	2	8		1	1	7	1	5	11	10	14	14	12	8	5		1
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7						0	0	3				0		0	0	1	6	13	22	24	18	9	3	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	6																				25	25		50
7		6	-	0	-	8						0	0	1				0			0	0	0	1	4	8	12	16	18	16	12	7	3	1	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7								1										2	4	8	15	20	15	18	11	5	2
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8								0											0	0	1	3	11	17	25	22	14	5	2	0	0
		4	-	3	-	7																											50	50
6		5	-	0	-	9								0												0	0	0	1	4	9	15	21	22	17	8	2	0
		4	-	2	-	8																								5	12	19	19	19	15	8	3
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9																								0	1	3	10	23	27	23	11	2
5		4	-	0	-	10																								0	0	0	2	7	18	30	30	13
		3	-	2	-	9																											2	5	23	40	23	7
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10																											0	1	7	22	42	28
		2	-	3	-	9																																100
4		3	-	0	-	11																											0	0	1	9	34	56
		2	-	2	-	10																														7	29	64
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11																													0	2	25	73
		1	-	3	-	10																																100
3		2	-	0	-	12																														1	11	88
		1	-	2	-	11																																100
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															5	95
2		1	-	0	-	13																														0	4	95
1	-1.5																																					100

Total:							2	3	3	4	3	4	3	3	3	4	3	4	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3