Houston Texans Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.01 to 23.4%

0-0-2 .000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+5.9-3.1-5.8		+0.8*-0.2-0.8
New England vs Jacksonville	+1.1*+0.3-1.1		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	-0.4*-0.9+0.4		-0.0-0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.3*+1.3+0.3		-0.0+0.3+0.0
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.3*-1.8-0.3		+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Detroit vs Denver	+0.3*-1.4-0.2		+0.0*-0.2-0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh			+0.1*-0.2-0.0
Baltimore vs Cincinnati			-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Atlanta vs Houston	-6.0*-0.6+6.0		-0.8-0.1+0.8
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+0.5*+0.9-0.5		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.2*-1.7+0.3		-0.0-0.3+0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City			+0.0*+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Houston finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

13.5	-14						In		100																65	*
13		13	-	0	-	1	In		94	6	0														395
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		91	9															35
12		12	-	0	-	2	In		78	20	1	0	1												2,586
		11	-	2	-	1	In		50	50															2
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		58	37	2	1	1												251
11		11	-	0	-	3	In		40	42	12	1	4	0											10,343
		10	-	2	-	2	In		46	46	8														13
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		18	42	26	5	8	1											911
10		10	-	0	-	4	99.1	%	7	27	34	13	14	5	1	0	0								28,562
		9	-	2	-	3	In		17	21	33	17	8	4											24
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4	95.7		1	10	30	24	16	14	4	0	0								2,216
9		9	-	0	-	5	77.6		0	3	18	30	9	17	14	7	2	0	0	0					57,049
		8	-	2	-	4	78.8				18	35	6	20	16	4	1								85
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5	43.6			0	4	27	2	10	21	21	11	3	1	0					4,172
		7	-	3	-	4	50.0					50			50										2
8		8	-	0	-	6	23.3			0	1	18	0	4	12	20	21	15	7	2	0	0	0		85,660
		7	-	2	-	5	21.9					20		2	7	19	24	18	8	2	1				105
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6	6.8				0	7		0	1	6	16	27	25	13	4	1	0		5,506
		6	-	3	-	5	Out										33	33	33						3
7		7	-	0	-	7	3.3				0	3		0	0	2	6	16	24	25	16	6	1	0	97,403
		6	-	2	-	6	0.6					1				1	7	17	28	24	16	7			165
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7	0.4					0					0	2	8	23	32	24	9	1	5,377
		5	-	3	-	6	Out													25		50	25		4
6		6	-	0	-	8	0.2					0				0	0	0	3	11	25	32	22	6	85,290
		5	-	2	-	7	Out											1	3	8	24	29	29	6	132
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8	Out												0	1	9	27	41	22	3,992
		4	-	3	-	7	Out														50			50	2
5		5	-	0	-	9	0.0					0							0	0	4	17	40	39	56,836
		4	-	2	-	8	Out														1	16	39	44	82
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out														0	4	29	67	2,155
		3	-	3	-	8	Out																33	67	3
4		4	-	0	-	10	Out													0	0	2	21	77	28,285
		3	-	2	-	9	Out															3	21	76	33
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out																8	92	919
		2	-	3	-	9	Out																	100	1
3		3	-	0	-	11	Out															0	5	95	10,494
		2	-	2	-	10	Out																	100	11
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out																2	98	235
2		2	-	0	-	12	Out																1	99	2,513
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																	100	2
0	-1.5						Out																	100	513	*

Total:							23.4	%	2	3	5	8	2	3	4	5	5	6	7	8	8	9	11	13	492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Houston vs Tampa Bay	-2.1+0.3+2.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.1+0.3-0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Dallas vs Atlanta	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	+0.0+0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.1*-0.5+0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.0*-0.4+0.0
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.0*+0.5-0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.0*+0.3+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Atlanta vs Houston	+2.1+0.2-2.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.1+0.5+0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.1+0.2+0.1
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.0*-0.4+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		14	-	0	-	0	98	2
13	.5	13	-	1	-	0	100
13		13	-	0	-	1	85	9	6		0
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	77	14	9
12		12	-	0	-	2	48	30	19	1	1	0	0		1
		11	-	2	-	1	50		50
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	32	26	34	3	2		1		1
11		11	-	0	-	3	10	30	28	14	12	1	1	0	4	0	0
		10	-	2	-	2		46	38	8	8
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3	1	16	22	20	23	2	5	0	7	1	1
10		10	-	0	-	4	0	7	6	21	20	14	11	1	8	5	5	0	1	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3		17		21	13	21	17		4	4	4
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4		1	1	10	11	19	21	3	7	9	12	2	4	0	0
9		9	-	0	-	5		0	0	3	2	15	15	15	1	8	8	10	10	7	3	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4					4	14	14	21	2	4	12	8	6	7	6		2
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5				0	0	4	9	18	0	2	1	9	10	19	15	9	3	1	0	0
		7	-	3	-	4								50									50
8		8	-	0	-	6				0	0	1	2	15		0	0	4	2	7	12	14	14	12	8	5	2	1	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5							2	18				2	1	10	12	15	12	14	6	7		1
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6						0	0	6				0		0	0	2	6	13	21	23	17	8	3	1	0
		6	-	3	-	5																	33				33	33
7		7	-	0	-	7						0	0	3				0		0	0	0	1	3	6	11	15	17	16	13	9	5	2	1	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6								1										4	4	12	16	18	18	14	12	3
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7								0											0	0	1	3	11	19	25	22	13	5	1	0		0
		5	-	3	-	6																									75				25
6		6	-	0	-	8								0											0	0	0	1	2	6	12	18	21	19	13	6	2	0
		5	-	2	-	7																							1	4	11	18	25	17	17	5	1	2
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8																								0	1	3	11	21	29	24	10	2
		4	-	3	-	7																										50				50
5		5	-	0	-	9								0															0	0	0	1	3	10	21	30	25	10
		4	-	2	-	8																											4	11	18	28	27	12
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9																											0	0	6	20	42	32
		3	-	3	-	8																														33	33	33
4		4	-	0	-	10																											0	0	2	12	36	50
		3	-	2	-	9																													6	3	45	45
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10																													0	2	23	74
		2	-	3	-	9																																100
3		3	-	0	-	11																													0	1	14	84
		2	-	2	-	10																														9	9	82
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11																														0	5	95
2		2	-	0	-	12																															3	97
		1	-	2	-	11																																100
1	.5	1	-	1	-	12																																100
1		1	-	0	-	13																															1	99
		0	-	2	-	12																																100
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							1	1	1	2	2	3	3	5	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	7