New England Patriots Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 55%

2-0-0 1.000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the New England finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14.5	-16						In		100																498	*
14		12	-	0	-	2	In		99	1			0												2,638
		11	-	2	-	1	In		100																2
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		97	3															237
13		11	-	0	-	3	In		94	5	0		1												10,271
		10	-	2	-	2	In		100																7
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		89	9	0		2												866
12		10	-	0	-	4	In		77	17	1	0	5	0											28,568
		9	-	2	-	3	In		76	17	2		6												54
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	In		59	30	2		8	0											2,227
11		9	-	0	-	5	100.0	%	40	33	8	1	18	1	0										57,001
		8	-	2	-	4	In		40	28	11		20	1											80
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	99.7		18	34	16	2	26	3	0										4,006
		7	-	3	-	4	In						100												2
10		8	-	0	-	6	97.6		7	21	19	6	32	12	2	0	0								85,293
		7	-	2	-	5	98.5		11	21	21	5	31	10	1										135
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6	89.6		1	7	16	10	28	28	9	1	0								5,452
		6	-	3	-	5	In			67				33											3
9		7	-	0	-	7	66.6		0	2	9	11	16	28	21	9	2	0	0						97,471
		6	-	2	-	6	73.7			4	6	11	22	32	15	10	1	1							133
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7	27.9			0	2	8	3	16	28	26	14	4	0	0					5,299
		5	-	3	-	6	66.7					33		33	33										3
8		6	-	0	-	8	10.9			0	0	4	1	6	16	24	24	15	7	2	0	0	0		85,716
		5	-	2	-	7	12.2				1	3	3	5	15	27	29	10	7	1					147
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8	1.1					1		0	2	7	19	29	26	12	3	1	0		4,081
		4	-	3	-	7	Out										50	50							2
7		5	-	0	-	9	0.4					0		0	0	2	9	18	26	24	15	5	1	0	56,900
		4	-	2	-	8	Out										5	26	26	22	11	11			82
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9	0.0					0					0	2	11	23	32	22	8	1	2,212
		3	-	3	-	8	Out														50	50			2
6		4	-	0	-	10	0.0					0					0	1	4	14	26	31	20	5	28,270
		3	-	2	-	9	Out												7	7	30	33	19	4	27
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out													1	9	27	45	18	868
5		3	-	0	-	11	Out												0	1	4	19	41	35	10,516
		2	-	2	-	10	Out															8	54	38	13
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out															5	36	59	224
4		2	-	0	-	12	Out														0	3	23	73	2,598
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																50	50	2
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																5	95	37
3		1	-	0	-	13	Out																7	93	429
2		0	-	0	-	14	Out																3	97	60

Total:							55.0	%	14	9	7	4	12	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	2	2	492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
New England vs Jacksonville	-2.0+0.2+2.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	-0.0+0.2+0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.0-0.1+0.0
Carolina vs New Orleans	+0.0+0.1-0.0
Dallas vs Atlanta	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.0*-0.5+0.0
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Miami vs NY Jets	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.1-0.0-0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas	+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.0*-0.5+0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	-0.0*-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15	-16						100
14	.5	12	-	1	-	1	97	3
14		12	-	0	-	2	98	2	1						0
		11	-	2	-	1	100
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	92	4	3
13		11	-	0	-	3	86	9	5	0	0				1
		10	-	2	-	2	100
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	77	12	9		0				2
12		10	-	0	-	4	53	24	16	1	1		0		5	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3	57	19	13	4	2				6
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	29	30	27	3	2				8	0	0
11		9	-	0	-	5	13	27	24	8	8	0	1	0	17	1	1	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4	9	31	23	5	10	1			20		1
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	2	16	17	17	14	1	2		23	3	3		0
		7	-	3	-	4									50	50
10		8	-	0	-	6	0	7	6	15	13	6	6	0	22	10	12	1	2	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5	2	9	7	14	10	10	4	1	27	4	8	1	1
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6		1	0	7	5	10	8	2	11	17	23	5	9	1	0
		6	-	3	-	5				67							33
9		7	-	0	-	7		0	0	2	2	7	7	4	4	13	16	12	16	11	5	1	0	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6				4	2	5	8	3	5	17	22	10	11	12	2	2	1
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7				0	0	2	2	6		3	1	14	12	22	21	11	4	1	0
		5	-	3	-	6							33					33				33
8		6	-	0	-	8				0		0	1	3	0	1	0	5	3	9	14	17	16	13	9	5	2	1	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7						1	1	3		3	1	5	2	9	14	14	16	12	10	6	4	1		1
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8							0	1				0		0	0	2	6	15	22	24	17	9	3	1	0
		4	-	3	-	7																		50			50
7		5	-	0	-	9							0	0				0		0	0	0	1	3	7	12	16	17	16	12	8	4	2	0	0	0
		4	-	2	-	8																	1	1	10	15	15	20	18	9	6	2	2	1
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9								0											0	0	1	3	11	19	23	23	14	5	1	0	0
		3	-	3	-	8																										50	50
6		4	-	0	-	10								0											0	0	0	1	3	7	12	19	21	18	12	5	2	0
		3	-	2	-	9																							4	7	22		7	33	22	4
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10																									1	4	10	19	30	23	11	1
5		3	-	0	-	11																								0	0	1	4	10	21	30	24	11
		2	-	2	-	10																													38	23	15	23
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11																												1	6	20	44	30
4		2	-	0	-	12																											0	0	2	13	36	49
		1	-	2	-	11																															50	50
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															19	81
3		1	-	0	-	13																														1	13	86
2		0	-	0	-	14																																100

Total:							7	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	7	5	6	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1