Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.06 to 37.4%
1-0-1   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Houston vs Tampa Bay-7.7*-0.9+7.7
-0.8-0.0+0.8
Dallas vs Atlanta+0.8*-0.9-0.8
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh-0.6*-1.0+0.6
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans-0.6*+0.7+0.6
Green Bay vs Kansas City-0.5*-0.3+0.5
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego-0.4*-0.1+0.4
NY Jets vs Philadelphia+0.4*+1.3-0.4
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Detroit vs Denver-0.3*+1.2+0.3
Arizona vs San Francisco+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Carolina+11.2*-2.8-11.2
+1.2*-0.3-1.2
Atlanta vs Houston-1.1*-0.6+1.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota+0.5*+0.8-0.5
+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants+0.4*+1.1-0.4
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Chicago vs Oakland-0.4*+0.8+0.4
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay-0.0-0.3+0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-D-Lplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-15In10075*
1413-0-1In991398
13.512-1-1In10043
1312-0-2In945012,593
11-2-1In1001
12.511-1-2In9082234
1211-0-3In7916105010,359
10-2-2In89119
11.510-1-3In562940111904
1110-0-4100.0%413381161028,446
9-2-3In294052642
10.59-1-499.8193215228402,207
8-3-3In50502
109-0-598.482220632112056,917
8-2-498.8823156379186
9.58-1-593.118181032246104,037
7-3-4In1001
98-0-672.4031012192919710085,359
7-2-573.2111816371772123
8.57-1-634.6027520312392005,354
6-3-516.71750336
87-0-714.80151820262212410097,756
6-2-66.02132528241311134
7.56-1-71.71003122628208205,332
5-3-6Out1001
76-0-80.6010014122226211131085,270
5-2-7Out1410262820921123
6.55-1-80.0001415293016504,046
4-3-7Out1001
65-0-90.000001617282815357,363
4-2-8Out1514253219473
5.54-1-9Out013143335152,240
54-0-10Out001723402928,323
3-2-9Out1039193231
4.53-1-10Out083458871
43-0-11Out004276910,297
2-2-10Out8177512
3.52-1-11Out11286220
32-0-12Out09912,594
1-2-11Out1003
2.51-1-12Out39733
21-0-13Out298449
1-1.5Out10064*
Total:37.4%6654988777666654492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Lottery seed
Houston vs Tampa Bay+2.1-0.4-2.1
Carolina vs New Orleans+0.1-0.1-0.1
Arizona vs San Francisco-0.0+0.2+0.0
Dallas vs Atlanta-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Seattle vs Chicago+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Green Bay vs Kansas City+0.0*+0.1-0.0
New England vs Jacksonville+0.0*-0.3-0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia+0.0*-0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Carolina-2.4+0.1+2.4
Atlanta vs Houston+0.1+0.2-0.1
Arizona vs St. Louis+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Denver vs Minnesota-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants+0.0*-0.2-0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas-0.0*+0.2+0.0
San Francisco vs Green Bay+0.0*+0.5-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
14.5-15100
1413-0-19631
13.512-1-1955
1312-0-284115001
11-2-1100
12.511-1-2711982
1211-0-3512715110400
10-2-2444411
11.510-1-32827262401101
1110-0-4113023108010152100
9-2-35242912526
10.59-1-42171516142224540
8-3-35050
109-0-50851712850181491100
8-2-489147832191991
9.58-1-5107612821022196610
7-3-4100
98-0-600319653161217109521000
7-2-5129532141621911421
8.57-1-60022505219112019114100
6-3-5173350
87-0-7001140108148121516139520000
6-2-61113381517181610511
7.56-1-7010002614222417103100
5-3-6100
76-0-800100000147111518171383100
5-2-712581322201685
6.55-1-8000141018252214510
4-3-7100
65-0-90000014815212217930
4-2-831512231121123
5.54-1-90031020322392
54-0-10002717303013
3-2-931016262323
4.53-1-1015214231
43-0-1100193456
2-2-1084250
3.52-1-1152075
32-0-1201387
1-2-11100
2.51-1-123394
21-0-13298
1-1.5100
Total:23232322453523333443333433333333