SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holding my newborn
4 a.m.

Washington Redskins Playoff Chances 2015

Lost to NY Giants 21-32, playoff odds down 17.6 to 15.6%

1-0-2 .333

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	-9.5		-0.9
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dallas vs Atlanta	-0.6*-0.2+1.0		-0.0*-0.0+0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.3*-0.1+0.6		-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.4*-0.1-0.5		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.2*+1.1+0.6		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.2*+0.4+0.4		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	+0.1*-0.5-0.4		+0.0-0.1-0.1
Arizona vs San Francisco	+0.1*-0.4-0.3		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Detroit vs Denver	-0.2*+0.4+0.1		-0.1*-0.0+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Washington vs Philadelphia	+4.0-3.5-7.8		+0.7-0.5-1.3
New Orleans vs Dallas	+1.3*-0.3-0.9
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.4*-0.3-0.8		+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.2*+0.1-0.5		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.2*-0.3+0.6
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.3*-0.1+0.3		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis	+0.1*-0.7-0.3		+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Chicago vs Oakland			-0.1-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14		13	-	0	-	0	In		96	4															137
13	.5	12	-	1	-	0	In		100																1
13		12	-	0	-	1	In		86	13	1		0												393
		11	-	2	-	0	In		100																1
12	.5	11	-	1	-	1	In		70	23			6												47
12		11	-	0	-	2	In		51	34	8	0	7	0											3,474
		10	-	2	-	1	In		50	50															2
11	.5	10	-	1	-	2	In		25	40	18	2	13	0											374
11		10	-	0	-	3	99.9	%	15	33	25	5	20	2	0										18,415
		9	-	2	-	2	In		29	29	6		29	6											17
10	.5	9	-	1	-	3	99.5		4	19	33	15	24	6	1										1,793
10		9	-	0	-	4	96.7		1	10	25	17	29	16	3	0	0								64,719
		8	-	2	-	3	96.8		2	14	21	14	29	17	3										63
9	.5	8	-	1	-	4	87.1		0	1	15	25	20	26	11	2	0								5,315
		7	-	3	-	3	In						67	33											3
9		8	-	0	-	5	67.0		0	1	7	19	13	28	23	9	2	0	0						156,738
		7	-	2	-	4	65.1			1	7	17	14	26	24	7	3	1							195
8	.5	7	-	1	-	5	33.4			0	2	15	2	15	29	26	9	2	0	0					11,328
		6	-	3	-	4	33.3							33	67										3
8		7	-	0	-	6	15.9			0	0	7	1	7	22	30	21	8	2	0	0				273,884
		6	-	2	-	5	14.5				0	6	0	8	25	29	18	11	2	1					337
7	.5	6	-	1	-	6	4.1				0	4	0	0	5	18	31	27	12	3	0	0			17,009
		5	-	3	-	5	Out													100					2
7		6	-	0	-	7	1.3				0	1	0	0	2	9	23	30	23	10	2	0	0	0	345,972
		5	-	2	-	6	1.1					1		0	1	8	19	31	26	11	3				469
6	.5	5	-	1	-	7	0.3					0			0	1	5	16	30	29	15	4	0	0	18,154
		4	-	3	-	6	Out										8	17	17	25	17	17			12
6		5	-	0	-	8	0.1					0			0	0	2	8	21	30	25	11	3	0	318,130
		4	-	2	-	7	Out									0	1	5	18	32	26	15	2		402
5	.5	4	-	1	-	8	Out										0	1	5	16	32	31	13	2	13,820
		3	-	3	-	7	Out													25	75				4
5		4	-	0	-	9	0.0					0					0	0	2	9	23	34	25	7	207,863
		3	-	2	-	8	Out												2	6	19	39	29	5	221
4	.5	3	-	1	-	9	Out												0	1	7	26	43	23	6,946
4		3	-	0	-	10	Out												0	0	3	17	41	39	94,609
		2	-	2	-	9	Out														4	14	49	33	78
3	.5	2	-	1	-	10	Out														0	5	30	65	2,322
3		2	-	0	-	11	Out														0	2	21	77	28,445
		1	-	2	-	10	Out																7	93	27
2	.5	1	-	1	-	11	Out																8	92	440
2		1	-	0	-	12	Out															0	5	95	5,097
		0	-	2	-	11	Out																	100	2
1	.5	0	-	1	-	12	Out																	100	41
1		0	-	0	-	13	Out																1	99	504

Total:							15.6	%	0	1	2	4	3	5	7	8	9	10	10	10	9	8	7	5	1,597,808

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	+2.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.0-0.2+0.0
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Seattle vs Chicago	+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Detroit vs Denver	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Atlanta	+0.0+0.0-0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs San Francisco	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington vs Philadelphia	-1.3+0.6+2.5
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.0+0.1+0.2
Chicago vs Oakland	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	+0.0*+0.0-0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		13	-	0	-	0	93	2	4
13	.5	12	-	1	-	0	100
13		12	-	0	-	1	60	26	13	0	1				0
		11	-	2	-	0	100
12	.5	11	-	1	-	1	43	28	21	2					6
12		11	-	0	-	2	18	33	27	7	7	0	0		7	0	0
		10	-	2	-	1		50		50
11	.5	10	-	1	-	2	7	18	27	13	18	1	2		13		0
11		10	-	0	-	3	1	14	11	22	19	6	5	0	17	4	2	0	0
		9	-	2	-	2	6	24	12	18	6				29		6
10	.5	9	-	1	-	3	0	3	4	14	23	10	14	1	18	6	6	0	1
10		9	-	0	-	4	0	1	0	9	7	18	13	4	10	19	12	4	3	0	0
		8	-	2	-	3		2	2	13	5	16	11	3	14	14	11	6	3
9	.5	8	-	1	-	4		0	0	1	3	12	18	7	3	16	16	10	10	3	0
		7	-	3	-	3									33	33	33
9		8	-	0	-	5		0		1	0	6	8	11	1	12	6	22	12	11	6	2	1	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	4				1		7	8	10	1	13	5	21	16	9	6	3	2
8	.5	7	-	1	-	5				0	0	1	4	11		2	1	14	7	18	20	14	6	2	0	0
		6	-	3	-	4												33		33	33
8		7	-	0	-	6				0	0	0	1	6		1	0	7	1	5	11	16	18	15	10	5	2	0	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	5						0	1	5		0		8	1	5	12	16	14	18	10	5	4	1
7	.5	6	-	1	-	6						0	0	3		0		0	0	0	1	4	11	20	24	20	11	4	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	5																				50		50
7		6	-	0	-	7						0	0	1		0		0	0	0	0	0	2	5	10	16	19	19	14	8	4	1	0	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	6							0	1				0					1	4	10	17	22	18	14	7	4	1	0
6	.5	5	-	1	-	7								0									0	0	0	2	7	16	24	23	16	7	2	0	0
		4	-	3	-	6																				8	8	17	17	17	17		17
6		5	-	0	-	8							0	0										0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	21	17	9	3	1	0	0
		4	-	2	-	7																					0	2	9	14	24	20	17	9	3	0
5	.5	4	-	1	-	8																						0	1	3	8	18	26	24	14	5	1	0
		3	-	3	-	7																									25	50		25
5		4	-	0	-	9								0														0	0	0	1	5	13	23	27	20	9	2
		3	-	2	-	8																									0	4	14	20	29	21	9	3
4	.5	3	-	1	-	9																									0	0	3	9	23	33	24	7
4		3	-	0	-	10																									0	0	0	3	10	26	37	23
		2	-	2	-	9																												5	9	27	44	15
3	.5	2	-	1	-	10																												0	2	14	38	45
3		2	-	0	-	11																												0	0	5	29	65
		1	-	2	-	10																															22	78
2	.5	1	-	1	-	11																														1	15	84
2		1	-	0	-	12																														0	8	92
		0	-	2	-	11																																100
1	.5	0	-	1	-	12																																100
1		0	-	0	-	13																															1	99

Total:							0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	1	2	1	4	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	3