SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holding my newborn
4 a.m.

Oakland Raiders Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 34.5%

1-0-1 .500

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cleveland vs Oakland	-9.2*+0.5+9.2		-1.1*-0.0+1.1
Detroit vs Denver	+1.3*+0.0-1.3		+0.1+0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	+1.1*-0.4-1.1		+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+1.1*-0.9-1.1		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.6*+0.9+0.5		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.4*-0.7-0.4		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis			+0.0*-0.1-0.0
New England vs Jacksonville			+0.0*+0.2-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago vs Oakland	-7.4*-0.7+7.4		-0.8*-0.1+0.8
Denver vs Minnesota	-1.2*+1.0+1.2		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland	-0.6*+0.1+0.6		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	+0.5*+0.9-0.5		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.4*-0.9+0.4		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Houston			+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Miami vs NY Jets			-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville			-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore			-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Oakland finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14.5	-15						In		100																67	*
14		13	-	0	-	1	In		99	1															449
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		92	8															36
13		12	-	0	-	2	In		93	7	0		0												2,645
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		87	12	0		1												245
12		11	-	0	-	3	In		72	23	2	0	4	0											10,330
		10	-	2	-	2	In		73	27															15
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		59	31	3	0	7	0											864
11		10	-	0	-	4	99.9	%	33	38	13	1	14	1	0	0									28,223
		9	-	2	-	3	In		39	39	17		6												36
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	99.8		15	35	20	3	24	3	0										2,141
10		9	-	0	-	5	97.1		5	20	25	8	26	13	3	0	0								56,951
		8	-	2	-	4	98.6		13	19	18	11	25	13	1										72
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5	90.2		1	7	21	13	24	25	8	1	0								4,049
		7	-	3	-	4	50.0					50			50										2
9		8	-	0	-	6	62.2		0	2	10	14	12	24	22	12	4	1	0	0					85,715
		7	-	2	-	5	65.4		1	2	14	12	17	20	20	13	1	1							133
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6	28.4			0	2	10	2	14	28	25	14	4	1	0					5,416
		6	-	3	-	5	Out								67	33									3
8		7	-	0	-	7	10.3			0	1	5	1	4	12	22	25	18	9	3	1	0	0		97,815
		6	-	2	-	6	10.6				1	4		5	7	29	25	18	7	4					161
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7	1.8				0	2		0	1	6	18	28	26	14	4	1	0		5,257
		5	-	3	-	6	Out													100					2
7		6	-	0	-	8	0.6					1		0	0	2	7	16	24	25	17	7	2	0	85,805
		5	-	2	-	7	Out									1	5	16	22	27	19	10			125
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8	0.1					0				0	0	2	9	24	33	24	7	1	3,946
		4	-	3	-	7	Out												50	50					2
6		5	-	0	-	9	0.0					0				0	0	1	3	12	26	31	21	6	56,820
		4	-	2	-	8	Out													8	17	28	36	11	72
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out											0	0	1	10	29	41	18	2,193
5		4	-	0	-	10	Out												0	1	4	20	42	34	28,316
		3	-	2	-	9	Out														7	13	43	37	30
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out														1	6	35	58	913
4		3	-	0	-	11	Out														0	3	25	71	10,237
		2	-	2	-	10	Out															7	20	73	15
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out																14	86	272
3		2	-	0	-	12	Out															0	8	91	2,569
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																	100	52
2		1	-	0	-	13	Out																1	99	373
1	-1.5						Out																	100	65	*

Total:							34.5	%	5	6	6	5	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Cleveland vs Oakland	+2.1+0.2-2.1
Detroit vs Denver	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Chicago	+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.0*-0.3+0.0
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.0-0.1-0.0
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.0*-0.3+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs Oakland	+2.0+0.3-2.0
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.1*-0.3-0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	+0.0+0.1-0.0
Seattle vs Detroit	+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Arizona vs St. Louis	-0.0*+0.2+0.0
San Diego vs Cleveland	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas	+0.0*-0.3-0.0
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.0*-0.2+0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.0*+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14.5	-15						100
14		13	-	0	-	1	98	1	1
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	89	3	8
13		12	-	0	-	2	85	8	7		0				0
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	73	13	12		0				1
12		11	-	0	-	3	47	25	21	1	2		0		4	0	0
		10	-	2	-	2	47	27	20	7
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	33	27	28	3	3		0		7		0
11		10	-	0	-	4	9	24	26	11	12	1	1		13	1	1	0	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3	14	25	22	17	17				6
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	1	13	19	16	18	2	3	0	21	3	3		0
10		9	-	0	-	5	0	5	5	15	15	10	8	1	16	9	12	1	3	0	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4		13	3	17	11	7	7	4	17	8	11	1	1
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5		1	0	7	7	14	10	2	10	14	21	4	8	2	0
		7	-	3	-	4							50						50
9		8	-	0	-	6		0	0	2	2	9	8	6	2	10	12	12	20	11	5	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5		1		2	2	11	5	7	1	17	8	11	17	11	5	1	1
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6				0		2	3	7		2	2	12	13	22	21	11	4	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5													67		33
8		7	-	0	-	7				0	0	1	1	5		1	0	4	3	10	15	17	16	12	8	5	2	1	0	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6						1		4				5	1	6	20	20	17	12	8	2	1	1
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7						0		2				0		0	0	2	6	15	21	24	17	9	3	1	0
		5	-	3	-	6																				50			50
7		6	-	0	-	8							0	1				0		0	0	0	1	4	8	13	17	17	15	11	7	4	1	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7														1			2	2	6	14	22	15	14	14	6	2	2
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8								0										0		0	1	4	11	20	24	22	13	5	1	0
		4	-	3	-	7																									50		50
6		5	-	0	-	9								0											0	0	0	1	3	8	14	20	21	17	11	5	1	0
		4	-	2	-	8																				1			1	8	17	19	15	24	4	7	3
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9																								0	1	3	11	23	29	22	9	2
5		4	-	0	-	10																							0	0	0	1	4	12	23	29	22	8
		3	-	2	-	9																											3	7	27	27	33	3
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10																											0	1	7	23	40	28
4		3	-	0	-	11																										0		0	3	14	38	45
		2	-	2	-	10																													7		40	53
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11																														3	28	69
3		2	-	0	-	12																													0	2	17	82
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12																																100
2		1	-	0	-	13																															3	97
1	-1.5																																					100

Total:							2	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	3	3	4	3	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2