Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances 2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.08 to 22%

0-0-2 .000

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	-9.1*-0.9+9.0		-1.2*-0.1+1.2
New England vs Jacksonville	+1.0*-0.4-1.0		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	-1.0*+0.4+1.0		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.3*+0.1+0.3		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Green Bay vs Kansas City			+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego			+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Detroit vs Denver			+0.0*-0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+9.1*-0.8-9.1		+1.2*-0.1-1.2
Atlanta vs Houston	+0.9*+0.1-0.9		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Denver vs Minnesota			-0.0-0.1+0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City			+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Indianapolis finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14		14	-	0	-	0	In		97	3															63
13	.5	13	-	1	-	0	In		100																5
13		13	-	0	-	1	In		93	7	0														411
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		86	14															35
12		12	-	0	-	2	In		70	26	3	0	1												2,552
		11	-	2	-	1	In		100																1
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		59	34	5	1	1												214
11		11	-	0	-	3	100.0	%	30	42	19	3	5	0	0										10,058
		10	-	2	-	2	In		9	55	18		18												11
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		14	39	29	6	10	1											904
10		10	-	0	-	4	98.5		4	22	35	17	14	6	1	0	0								28,691
		9	-	2	-	3	In		6	15	38	24	18												34
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4	94.1		0	8	30	26	16	15	5	1	0								2,346
		8	-	3	-	3	In				100														1
9		9	-	0	-	5	71.1		0	2	15	31	7	16	15	9	3	1	0	0					57,039
		8	-	2	-	4	78.4			5	12	35	9	16	12	9									74
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5	43.9			0	4	28	2	10	20	20	12	3	1	0					4,077
		7	-	3	-	4	In					100													1
8		8	-	0	-	6	20.4			0	1	16	0	3	7	16	21	19	11	4	1	0	0		85,439
		7	-	2	-	5	18.2				1	15	1	2	7	16	21	19	9	8	1				137
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6	7.0					7		0	1	5	16	26	26	14	5	1	0		5,391
		6	-	3	-	5	50.0					50							50						2
7		7	-	0	-	7	3.0				0	3		0	0	1	4	12	21	26	20	10	3	0	97,679
		6	-	2	-	6	1.4					1					2	12	23	25	22	12	3		146
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7	0.6					1					0	2	8	22	32	24	9	1	5,313
		5	-	3	-	6	Out												50		50				2
6		6	-	0	-	8	0.2					0					0	0	2	9	21	32	26	9	85,356
		5	-	2	-	7	Out												2	8	23	39	24	5	132
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8	Out												0	1	7	28	41	22	4,049
		4	-	3	-	7	Out																25	75	4
5		5	-	0	-	9	0.0					0							0	0	3	14	39	43	56,943
		4	-	2	-	8	Out															12	40	49	86
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out														0	5	29	66	2,248
		3	-	3	-	8	Out																	100	2
4		4	-	0	-	10	Out													0	0	2	19	79	28,462
		3	-	2	-	9	Out																27	73	37
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out															0	10	90	923
3		3	-	0	-	11	Out															0	5	95	10,261
		2	-	2	-	10	Out																13	88	8
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out																2	98	238
2		2	-	0	-	12	Out																1	99	2,514
1	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																2	98	47
0	-1						Out																	100	496	*

Total:							22.0	%	1	3	5	9	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	15	492,432

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	+2.3+0.4-2.3
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.0+0.3+0.0
Detroit vs Denver	+0.1*+0.2-0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.1-0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Atlanta	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	-2.3+0.3+2.3
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.1+0.0+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.1*+0.2+0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.1+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs St. Louis	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.0*+0.3+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		14	-	0	-	0	97		3
13	.5	13	-	1	-	0	100
13		13	-	0	-	1	82	11	7		0
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	69	17	14
12		12	-	0	-	2	44	26	24	1	3		0		1
		11	-	2	-	1		100
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	30	29	32	1	5		1		1
11		11	-	0	-	3	8	23	29	13	18	1	3	0	5	0	0		0
		10	-	2	-	2		9	36	18	18				18
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3	1	13	22	17	26	2	6		10	1	1
10		10	-	0	-	4	0	4	5	17	20	15	16	2	9	5	6	0	1	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3		6		15	18	21	24		6	12
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4		0	0	7	11	19	21	4	6	9	13	2	5	1	0
		8	-	3	-	3						100
9		9	-	0	-	5		0	0	2	2	13	16	15	1	6	7	9	14	9	4	1	0	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4				5		12	20	15	4	5	5	11	9	11	1
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5				0	0	4	8	19		2	1	9	9	18	16	9	3	1	0
		7	-	3	-	4								100
8		8	-	0	-	6				0	0	1	2	14		0	0	2	2	7	12	15	15	12	9	5	2	1	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5						1	1	14		1		2	2	8	9	15	18	10	11	5	3	1
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6							0	7				0		0	0	2	5	13	21	22	17	8	3	1	0
		6	-	3	-	5								50										50
7		7	-	0	-	7						0	0	3				0		0	0	0	1	3	6	11	15	17	16	13	9	5	2	1	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6								1								1	1	2	3	10	12	16	20	18	10	3	2	1	1
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7								1												0	1	4	9	20	24	22	13	5	1	0
		5	-	3	-	6																						100
6		6	-	0	-	8								0												0	0	1	2	6	12	18	21	19	13	6	2	0
		5	-	2	-	7																						2	2	6	10	14	23	24	8	9	2
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8																								0	1	3	10	21	29	24	10	2
		4	-	3	-	7																														75	25
5		5	-	0	-	9								0																0	0	1	3	10	21	30	25	10
		4	-	2	-	8																										1	7	17	17	22	28	7
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9																											0	1	6	22	41	30
		3	-	3	-	8																															50	50
4		4	-	0	-	10																											0	0	2	12	37	49
		3	-	2	-	9																													5	5	35	54
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10																													0	3	23	74
3		3	-	0	-	11																													0	1	15	84
		2	-	2	-	10																															13	88
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11																														0	5	94
2		2	-	0	-	12																														0	3	97
1	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															2	98
0	-1																																					100

Total:							0	1	1	2	2	3	3	5	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7