Kamloops Blazers Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Lost to Victoria 0-5, playoff odds down 3.5 to 13.6%

15 points 6 17-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	-3.9				-0.1
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.8
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	*-0.6

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Kamloops vs Kelowna	+2.5+2.4+1.9-0.7-0.8-3.0		+0.0No*-0.0NoNoNo		+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Saskatoon	-0.4-0.3-0.7+0.1*-0.0+0.5
Tri-City vs Victoria	-0.3-0.3-0.5-0.0*-0.2+0.4
Prince George vs Vancouver	+0.3-0.6-0.3-0.3-0.5+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Kamloops finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

96	-107						In		Yes		100												148	*
94		38	5		-	3	In		No			100											2	*
93		38	6		-	2	In		33.3	%	33	33	33										3	*
92		37	6		-	3	In		No			60	20	20									5	*
91		37	7		-	2	In		7.4		7	56	22	11	4								27	*
90		36	7		-	3	In		1.5		6	45	28	15	6								65	*
89		35	7		-	4	In		No		3	36	25	28	9								101	*
88		34	7		-	5	In		No			35	16	33	15	2							193	*
87		34	8		-	4	In		No			26	11	36	21	6							329	*
86		33	8		-	5	In		No			17	7	32	31	12	1						624	*
85		33	9		-	4	In		No			12	4	24	36	21	4	0					957	*
84		32	9		-	5	In		No			8	2	17	37	30	7	0					1,636	*
83		32	10		-	4	In		No			5	0	8	33	35	16	2					2,536	*
82		31	10		-	5	99.7	%	No			3	0	4	24	41	23	5	0				3,971	*
81		31	11		-	4	99.1		No			1	0	1	14	38	34	11	1	0			5,817	*
80		30	11		-	5	97.5		No			1		1	7	31	40	18	3	0			8,513	*
79		30	12		-	4	94.1		No			0		0	4	22	41	27	6	0			12,052	*
78		29	12		-	5	88.9		No			0		0	1	13	37	37	11	1			16,307	*
77		29	13		-	4	79.6		No			0		0	1	8	30	41	19	1			21,744	*
76		28	13		-	5	68.7		No			0			0	3	21	44	28	3			27,873	*
75		27	13		-	6	56.3		No					0	0	1	14	41	37	7			34,717	*
74		27	14		-	5	43.8		No						0	1	8	35	45	11			42,409	*
73		26	14		-	6	31.4		No						0	0	4	27	50	18			50,116	*
72		26	15		-	5	21.7		No							0	2	20	52	26			58,448	*
71		25	15		-	6	14.1		No						0	0	1	13	50	36			65,757	*
70		25	16		-	5	8.8		No							0	0	8	46	45			71,833	*
69		24	16		-	6	5.0		No								0	5	40	55			77,134	*
68		24	17		-	5	2.6		No								0	3	33	65			50,446	*
		25	18		-	3	2.8		No								0	3	33	64			29,879	*
67		23	17		-	6	1.2		No								0	1	25	74			49,348	*
		24	18		-	4	1.7		No							0	0	2	28	70			32,951	*
66		23	18		-	5	0.7		No								0	1	20	79			81,127	*
65		22	18		-	6	0.3		No								0	0	15	85			79,329	*
64		22	19		-	5	0.1		No									0	11	89			74,910	*
63		21	19		-	6	0.1		No									0	7	92			69,379	*
62		21	20		-	5	0.0		No									0	5	95			62,456	*
61		20	20		-	6	0.0		No									0	4	96			55,030	*
60		20	21		-	5	0.0		No									0	2	98			47,192	*
59		19	21		-	6	Out		No										1	99			39,793	*
58		19	22		-	5	Out		No										1	99			32,838	*
57		18	22		-	6	Out		No										0	100			26,110	*
56		18	23		-	5	Out		No										0	100			20,318	*
55		17	23		-	6	Out		No										0	100			15,405	*
54		17	24		-	5	Out		No										0	100			11,416	*
53		16	24		-	6	Out		No										0	100			8,089	*
52		16	25		-	5	Out		No										0	100			5,821	*
51		15	25		-	6	Out		No										0	100			3,909	*
50		15	26		-	5	Out		No										0	100			2,710	*
49		14	26		-	6	Out		No										0	100			1,709	*
15	-48						Out		No											100			2,986	*

Total:							13.6	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	8	23	64			1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	+0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kamloops vs Kelowna	-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.3

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

96	-107						100
94		38	5		-	3			100
93		38	6		-	2	33		33		33
92		37	6		-	3			60		20		20
91		37	7		-	2	7		44	11	22		11		4
90		36	7		-	3	2	5	37	8	22	6	15		6
89		35	7		-	4		3	27	9	15	10	28		9
88		34	7		-	5			23	12	10	5	32	1	15		2
87		34	8		-	4			15	12	6	4	32	4	21		6
86		33	8		-	5			5	11	2	4	26	6	30	1	12		1
85		33	9		-	4			3	8	1	3	15	9	35	1	21	0	4		0
84		32	9		-	5			1	7	0	1	8	9	31	5	29	1	7		0
83		32	10		-	4			0	5	0	0	3	6	23	10	32	3	16	0	2
82		31	10		-	5			0	2		0	1	3	12	12	35	6	22	1	5		0
81		31	11		-	4			0	1		0	0	1	4	10	26	12	31	2	11	0	1	0
80		30	11		-	5			0	1			0	1	1	6	15	16	33	7	17	1	3	0
79		30	12		-	4				0				0	0	4	6	15	27	14	25	2	6	0
78		29	12		-	5				0				0	0	1	2	11	17	20	30	7	10	1	0
77		29	13		-	4				0				0	0	1	0	7	8	22	27	14	18	3	0	0
76		28	13		-	5				0						0	0	3	3	19	21	23	23	7	1	0
75		27	13		-	6								0		0	0	1	1	13	12	29	26	14	4	0	0
74		27	14		-	5										0		1	0	8	6	29	24	22	9	2	0
73		26	14		-	6										0		0	0	4	2	25	18	27	18	5	0	0
72		26	15		-	5												0	0	2	1	19	11	27	27	11	2	0
71		25	15		-	6										0		0		1	0	13	6	23	33	20	4	0
70		25	16		-	5												0		0	0	8	3	16	34	29	9	0
69		24	16		-	6														0	0	5	1	10	30	37	15	1
68		24	17		-	5														0		3	0	5	24	41	24	2
67		23	17		-	6												0		0		1	0	2	17	41	34	4
66		23	18		-	5														0		1	0	1	11	37	43	7
65		22	18		-	6														0		0	0	0	6	31	51	11
64		22	19		-	5																0	0	0	3	24	55	17
63		21	19		-	6																0		0	2	17	57	24
62		21	20		-	5																0		0	1	12	56	31
61		20	20		-	6																0		0	0	8	52	39
60		20	21		-	5																0			0	5	48	48
59		19	21		-	6																			0	3	42	55
58		19	22		-	5																			0	2	36	62
57		18	22		-	6																			0	1	30	69
56		18	23		-	5																				0	25	75
55		17	23		-	6																				0	20	80
54		17	24		-	5																				0	15	85
53		16	24		-	6																				0	11	89
52		16	25		-	5																					9	91
51		15	25		-	6																				0	7	93
50		15	26		-	5																				0	5	95
49		14	26		-	6																					3	97
48		14	27		-	5																					3	97
47		13	27		-	6																					2	98
46		13	28		-	5																					1	99
45		12	28		-	6																					0	100
44		12	29		-	5																					1	99
15	-43																											100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	6	4	7	12	18	28	18