Edmonton Oil Kings Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.1 to 88.6%

29 points 14 9-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.4
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.4
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	+0.2
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	-0.2
Calgary 0 Everett 1			*-0.1		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	-3.1-0.1-0.3+2.2+2.4+2.4		-0.7-0.2*-0.1+0.5+0.6+0.6		-0.4-0.1-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.5+0.0+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.4
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.4+0.1+0.2-0.4*-0.3-0.4
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.3-0.0
Kamloops vs Kelowna			+0.2-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

106	-125						In		98.8	%	100												321	*
105		36	8		-	4	In		95.2		99		1										165	*
104		35	8		-	5	In		91.8		100												304	*
103		35	9		-	4	In		89.7		99	0	0										496	*
102		34	9		-	5	In		83.4		99		1										859	*
101		34	10		-	4	In		81.0		99	0	1										1,331	*
100		33	10		-	5	In		74.7		98	0	2										2,160	*
99		33	11		-	4	In		62.8		96	1	3										3,341	*
98		32	11		-	5	In		54.1		95	1	4										4,878	*
97		31	11		-	6	In		43.4		91	2	7	0									7,110	*
96		31	12		-	5	In		32.8		87	3	10	0									9,828	*
95		30	12		-	6	In		22.9		82	4	14	0									13,791	*
94		30	13		-	5	In		14.5		75	7	18	0									18,291	*
93		29	13		-	6	In		8.3		66	9	24	1	0								23,820	*
92		29	14		-	5	In		3.7		56	11	30	2	0								30,100	*
91		28	14		-	6	In		1.6		46	14	36	4	0								36,987	*
90		28	15		-	5	In		0.5		34	16	42	7	0								44,698	*
89		27	15		-	6	In		0.1		24	17	46	12	1	0							51,945	*
88		27	16		-	5	In		0.0		15	16	48	19	2	0	0						59,280	*
87		26	16		-	6	In		0.0		8	15	45	27	5	0	0						65,938	*
86		26	17		-	5	In		No		4	12	39	35	10	1	0						72,212	*
85		25	17		-	6	In		No		2	9	30	40	17	3	0	0					75,799	*
84		25	18		-	5	100.0	%	No		1	5	20	40	26	7	1	0	0				79,527	*
83		24	18		-	6	100.0		No		0	3	11	35	34	14	3	0	0				80,995	*
82		24	19		-	5	100.0		No		0	2	6	25	37	23	7	1	0				79,930	*
81		23	19		-	6	99.8		No		0	1	2	15	33	32	14	3	0	0			76,789	*
80		23	20		-	5	99.3		No			0	1	7	25	36	23	7	1	0			72,515	*
79		22	20		-	6	97.5		No			0	0	3	15	33	33	14	2	0	0		66,989	*
78		22	21		-	5	93.0		No			0	0	1	7	24	36	24	6	1	0		60,504	*
77		21	21		-	6	84.7		No			0	0	0	3	15	34	33	13	2	0		53,443	*
76		21	22		-	5	72.4		No					0	1	7	26	38	23	5	0		45,683	*
75		20	22		-	6	56.3		No					0	0	3	16	37	33	10	1		38,366	*
74		20	23		-	5	39.8		No						0	1	9	30	40	18	2	0	30,962	*
73		19	23		-	6	25.7		No						0	0	4	21	41	28	5	0	24,961	*
72		19	24		-	5	14.7		No							0	2	13	39	37	9	0	19,505	*
71		18	24		-	6	8.1		No							0	1	8	32	44	16	1	15,250	*
70		18	25		-	5	3.6		No								0	3	24	47	24	1	11,180	*
69		17	25		-	6	1.6		No									2	16	46	34	3	8,231	*
68		17	26		-	5	0.7		No								0	1	10	42	42	6	5,914	*
67		16	26		-	6	0.1		No									0	6	35	50	9	4,200	*
66		16	27		-	5	0.1		No									0	3	27	54	15	2,860	*
65		15	27		-	6	0.2		No									0	2	21	58	19	1,841	*
64		15	28		-	5	Out		No										1	14	59	27	1,165	*
63		14	28		-	6	Out		No										0	11	52	37	772	*
62		14	29		-	5	Out		No											9	50	41	459	*
61		13	29		-	6	Out		No											4	44	51	268	*
60		13	30		-	5	Out		No											4	37	59	180	*
59		12	30		-	6	Out		No												29	71	84	*
58		12	31		-	5	Out		No												22	78	49	*
57		12	32		-	4	Out		No												18	82	22	*
56		10	31		-	7	Out		No												6	94	17	*
55		10	32		-	6	Out		No												25	75	4	*
53		9	33		-	6	Out		No												100		1
29	-52						Out		No													100	148	*

Total:							88.6	%	1.9	%	11	6	17	15	12	11	9	8	6	4	2	0	1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary 0 Everett 1	-0.1
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	+0.1
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Swift Current vs Calgary	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

108	-125						100
107		36	6		-	6	98	3
106		36	7		-	5	97	3
105		36	8		-	4	95	4			1
104		35	8		-	5	92	8
103		35	9		-	4	90	10	0		0
102		34	9		-	5	83	16			1
101		34	10		-	4	81	18	0		1
100		33	10		-	5	75	23	0		2	0
99		33	11		-	4	63	33	1		3
98		32	11		-	5	54	40	1		4	0
97		31	11		-	6	43	48	2	0	6	0	0
96		31	12		-	5	33	55	3	0	9	1	0
95		30	12		-	6	23	59	4	1	12	2	0
94		30	13		-	5	14	60	5	2	15	3	0	0
93		29	13		-	6	8	58	6	3	18	6	1	0	0
92		29	14		-	5	4	52	7	5	20	10	2	0	0
91		28	14		-	6	2	44	7	7	19	17	4	0	0
90		28	15		-	5	0	34	6	10	17	25	6	1	0
89		27	15		-	6	0	24	5	12	13	34	9	3	1	0	0
88		27	16		-	5	0	15	3	13	8	39	12	7	2	0	0		0
87		26	16		-	6	0	8	2	13	4	41	13	13	4	1	0	0	0
86		26	17		-	5		4	1	11	2	37	12	23	8	2	1	0	0
85		25	17		-	6		2	0	8	1	29	8	32	11	6	3	0	0		0
84		25	18		-	5		1	0	5	0	20	4	36	13	13	6	1	1	0	0		0
83		24	18		-	6		0	0	3	0	11	2	33	11	23	11	3	2	0	0		0
82		24	19		-	5		0	0	2		6	0	24	7	30	14	9	6	0	1	0	0
81		23	19		-	6		0	0	1		2	0	15	3	30	14	18	12	2	3	0	0	0
80		23	20		-	5				0		1	0	7	1	24	10	26	17	7	7	0	1	0
79		22	20		-	6				0		0		3	0	15	5	27	18	14	13	1	2	0	0
78		22	21		-	5				0		0		1	0	7	2	22	15	22	20	4	6	1	0
77		21	21		-	6				0		0		0	0	3	0	14	9	25	24	9	13	2	0	0
76		21	22		-	5								0		1	0	7	4	22	22	16	21	6	0	0
75		20	22		-	6								0		0	0	3	1	15	16	21	29	13	2	0	0
74		20	23		-	5										0		1	0	8	9	21	31	23	5	1	0
73		19	23		-	6										0		0	0	4	4	17	28	32	12	2	0
72		19	24		-	5												0	0	2	2	11	22	37	20	5	0	0
71		18	24		-	6												0		1	1	7	14	35	31	11	1	0
70		18	25		-	5														0	0	3	8	29	37	18	4	0
69		17	25		-	6															0	2	4	21	37	29	7	1
68		17	26		-	5														0	0	1	1	13	34	36	14	1
67		16	26		-	6																0	1	7	27	42	22	2
66		16	27		-	5																0	0	4	20	40	31	6
65		15	27		-	6																0	0	2	13	39	38	9
64		15	28		-	5																		1	6	32	46	15
63		14	28		-	6																			5	24	45	26
62		14	29		-	5																			3	22	45	29
61		13	29		-	6																			1	12	47	40
60		13	30		-	5																			1	10	40	49
59		12	30		-	6																				4	35	62
58		12	31		-	5																					31	69
57		12	32		-	4																				5	18	77
56		10	31		-	7																					18	82
55		10	32		-	6																					25	75
53		9	33		-	6																					100
29	-52																											100

Total:							2	10	1	4	4	13	4	11	4	9	4	7	4	5	5	3	4	3	2	1	0	0