Moose Jaw Warriors Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Lost to Swift Current 4-5 (ot), playoff odds down 1.1 to 15.5%

21 points 8 16-5

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	-1.2		*No		-0.1
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.6
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.4
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	-0.3
Calgary 0 Everett 1	+0.3
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	+3.7+3.1+2.8-1.4-1.5-4.2		+0.0No*-0.0NoNo-0.0		+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.6+0.4-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.5
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.5-0.1-0.0-0.5-0.4-0.4
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.2*-0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Moose Jaw finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

94	-107						In		92.0	%	100												162	*
93		34	5		-	4	In		10.5		79	11	11										19	*
92		34	6		-	3	In		5.6		56	33	11										36	*
91		33	6		-	4	In		1.1		38	45	15	1									91	*
90		33	7		-	3	In		0.5		31	47	21	1									193	*
89		32	7		-	4	In		No		23	50	22	4	1								325	*
88		31	7		-	5	In		No		13	52	25	8	2								628	*
87		31	8		-	4	In		No		9	47	26	14	4	0							1,068	*
86		30	8		-	5	In		No		4	39	24	22	10	1	0						1,723	*
85		30	9		-	4	In		No		1	31	21	27	15	4	0						2,767	*
84		29	9		-	5	In		No		1	24	13	30	24	8	1	0					4,360	*
83		29	10		-	4	100.0	%	No		0	15	7	24	31	17	4	1	0				6,456	*
82		28	10		-	5	99.9		No		0	9	3	18	32	26	10	2	0	0			9,271	*
81		28	11		-	4	99.3		No			5	1	9	27	33	19	5	1	0			13,459	*
80		27	11		-	5	97.7		No			2	0	4	17	33	29	12	2	0	0		18,239	*
79		27	12		-	4	93.0		No			1	0	1	9	26	35	22	6	1	0		23,953	*
78		26	12		-	5	83.7		No			0		0	3	15	33	32	14	2	0		31,125	*
77		26	13		-	4	69.1		No			0		0	1	7	24	36	24	6	1		38,344	*
76		25	13		-	5	51.3		No			0		0	0	3	15	34	33	14	2	0	46,903	*
75		25	14		-	4	33.9		No			0			0	1	7	26	39	23	4	0	55,348	*
74		24	14		-	5	20.0		No						0	0	3	17	38	33	9	0	63,987	*
73		24	15		-	4	10.3		No							0	1	9	32	42	16	0	71,488	*
72		23	15		-	5	4.9		No							0	0	5	24	45	25	1	77,684	*
71		23	16		-	4	2.1		No							0	0	2	16	45	36	1	81,857	*
70		22	16		-	5	0.8		No								0	1	10	41	46	3	84,734	*
69		22	17		-	4	0.3		No								0	0	5	34	56	5	84,836	*
68		21	17		-	5	0.1		No								0	0	3	26	64	7	83,061	*
67		21	18		-	4	0.0		No									0	1	19	68	11	78,586	*
66		20	18		-	5	0.0		No									0	1	13	70	16	73,415	*
65		20	19		-	4	0.0		No									0	0	9	69	22	66,538	*
64		19	19		-	5	Out		No										0	6	67	28	58,713	*
63		19	20		-	4	Out		No										0	4	62	34	50,656	*
62		18	20		-	5	Out		No										0	2	56	42	41,619	*
61		18	21		-	4	Out		No										0	1	50	49	34,133	*
60		17	21		-	5	Out		No											1	44	56	27,193	*
59		17	22		-	4	Out		No											0	37	63	21,221	*
58		16	22		-	5	Out		No											0	31	69	15,780	*
57		16	23		-	4	Out		No											0	25	75	11,672	*
56		15	23		-	5	Out		No											0	21	79	8,352	*
55		15	24		-	4	Out		No												16	84	5,744	*
54		14	24		-	5	Out		No												12	88	3,932	*
53		14	25		-	4	Out		No												8	92	2,616	*
52		13	25		-	5	Out		No												7	93	1,652	*
51		13	26		-	4	Out		No												4	96	955	*
50		12	26		-	5	Out		No												3	97	618	*
49		12	27		-	4	Out		No												2	98	363	*
48		11	27		-	5	Out		No												1	99	204	*
47		11	28		-	4	Out		No												2	98	109	*
46		10	28		-	5	Out		No												2	98	66	*
21	-45						Out		No													100	214	*

Total:							15.5	%	0.0	%	0	1	0	1	1	2	4	7	11	21	38	14	1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	+0.1
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Seattle vs Saskatoon	-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

107		43	0		-	0	99	1
97		37	4		-	2		100
96		36	4		-	3	100
95		35	4		-	4	40	60
94		35	5		-	3		100
93		34	5		-	4	11	68	11		11
92		34	6		-	3	6	50	25	8	11
91		33	6		-	4	1	37	27	18	10	5	1
90		33	7		-	3	1	30	20	27	11	10		1
89		32	7		-	4		23	15	35	6	16	4	0	1
88		31	7		-	5		13	11	41	5	20	6	3	1	0
87		31	8		-	4		9	6	41	3	23	7	7	3	1	0
86		30	8		-	5		4	4	35	1	22	9	13	8	2	1		0
85		30	9		-	4		1	2	29	0	21	5	22	10	6	4	0	0
84		29	9		-	5		1	1	23	0	13	3	27	12	12	6	1	1		0
83		29	10		-	4		0	0	15	0	7	1	23	10	22	13	4	4	0	1		0
82		28	10		-	5		0	0	9		3	0	18	6	27	16	11	9	1	2		0	0
81		28	11		-	4			0	5		1	0	9	2	25	14	19	15	4	5	0	1	0
80		27	11		-	5			0	2		0		4	1	16	9	24	20	9	12	1	2	0	0
79		27	12		-	4				1		0		1	0	9	4	22	19	16	20	2	6	1	0
78		26	12		-	5				0				0	0	3	1	14	13	20	26	6	14	2	0
77		26	13		-	4				0				0		1	0	7	6	18	25	11	23	7	1	0
76		25	13		-	5				0				0		0	0	3	2	12	19	15	31	15	2	0
75		25	14		-	4				0						0		1	1	7	10	15	34	25	7	1	0
74		24	14		-	5										0		0	0	3	5	12	29	34	14	2	0
73		24	15		-	4												0	0	1	2	7	22	38	24	5	0	0
72		23	15		-	5												0	0	0	0	4	13	36	34	11	1	0
71		23	16		-	4												0		0	0	2	7	28	40	20	3	0
70		22	16		-	5														0	0	1	3	19	39	30	7	0
69		22	17		-	4														0	0	0	1	11	35	39	13	1
68		21	17		-	5														0		0	0	6	27	44	21	2
67		21	18		-	4															0	0	0	3	19	45	29	4
66		20	18		-	5																0	0	1	12	42	38	6
65		20	19		-	4																0	0	0	7	36	45	11
64		19	19		-	5																	0	0	4	29	51	16
63		19	20		-	4																		0	2	22	53	23
62		18	20		-	5																		0	1	16	53	30
61		18	21		-	4																		0	0	11	50	39
60		17	21		-	5																			0	7	46	46
59		17	22		-	4																			0	5	40	55
58		16	22		-	5																			0	3	35	63
57		16	23		-	4																				2	28	70
56		15	23		-	5																				1	23	76
55		15	24		-	4																				0	18	81
54		14	24		-	5																				0	14	86
53		14	25		-	4																				0	9	91
52		13	25		-	5																				0	8	92
51		13	26		-	4																				0	5	95
50		12	26		-	5																					3	97
49		12	27		-	4																					2	98
48		11	27		-	5																					1	99
47		11	28		-	4																					2	98
46		10	28		-	5																					2	98
21	-45																											100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	1	2	3	3	8	12	16	20	19	10