Kamloops Blazers Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Victoria 0-5, playoff odds down 2.2 to 2.6%

15 points 6 17-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	-1.1		No		-0.0
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	-0.4
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Kamloops vs Kelowna	+1.1+1.0+0.9+0.0+0.0-0.6		+0.0NoNoNoNoNo		+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0
Seattle vs Saskatoon	-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.0-0.0+0.3
Prince George vs Vancouver	+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1
Tri-City vs Victoria	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Kamloops finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

107		46	0		-	0	In		93.9	%	95	4	1										488
86		30	5		-	11	In		No							100							1
84		32	9		-	5	In		No						67	33							3	*
83		30	8		-	8	In		No					9	18	36	36						11	*
82		30	9		-	7	In		No					5	15	60	20						20	*
81		30	10		-	6	In		No					2	13	49	35	2					55	*
80		29	10		-	7	99.0	%	No						8	47	37	7	1				102	*
79		29	11		-	6	99.5		No						4	50	41	4	0				204	*
78		28	11		-	7	99.0		No						2	35	47	14	1				398	*
77		28	12		-	6	97.4		No						1	27	49	20	3				685	*
76		27	12		-	7	95.8		No						1	17	50	28	4				1,178	*
75		27	13		-	6	92.5		No						0	12	45	35	7	0			2,020	*
74		26	13		-	7	88.7		No						0	7	39	43	11	0			3,313	*
73		26	14		-	6	82.3		No						0	4	32	46	17	0			5,297	*
72		25	14		-	7	73.5		No						0	2	23	49	26	1			8,369	*
71		25	15		-	6	64.4		No							1	17	47	34	2			12,675	*
70		24	15		-	7	53.8		No						0	0	11	43	43	3			18,716	*
69		24	16		-	6	43.1		No							0	7	36	51	6			27,118	*
68		23	16		-	7	32.7		No							0	3	29	58	10			38,164	*
67		23	17		-	6	23.8		No							0	2	22	62	14			52,049	*
66		22	17		-	7	16.3		No							0	1	15	62	21			69,337	*
65		22	18		-	6	10.7		No								0	10	61	29			89,377	*
64		21	18		-	7	6.6		No							0	0	6	57	37			113,168	*
63		21	19		-	6	3.7		No								0	4	50	46			138,694	*
62		20	19		-	7	2.0		No								0	2	43	54			165,844	*
61		20	20		-	6	1.1		No								0	1	36	63			193,385	*
60		19	20		-	7	0.5		No								0	1	29	70			219,956	*
59		19	21		-	6	0.2		No									0	23	77			243,580	*
58		18	21		-	7	0.1		No								0	0	17	83			262,313	*
57		18	22		-	6	0.0		No									0	13	87			275,728	*
56		17	22		-	7	0.0		No									0	9	91			280,321	*
55		17	23		-	6	0.0		No									0	6	94			166,672	*
		15	21		-	10	0.0		No									0	6	94			112,359	*
54		16	23		-	7	0.0		No									0	4	96			271,818	*
53		16	24		-	6	0.0		No									0	3	97			255,871	*
52		15	24		-	7	Out		No										2	98			235,228	*
51		15	25		-	6	Out		No										1	99			211,561	*
50		14	25		-	7	Out		No										1	99			183,776	*
49		14	26		-	6	Out		No										0	100			155,340	*
48		13	26		-	7	Out		No										0	100			127,734	*
47		13	27		-	6	Out		No										0	100			102,624	*
46		12	27		-	7	Out		No										0	100			80,090	*
45		12	28		-	6	Out		No										0	100			60,291	*
44		11	28		-	7	Out		No										0	100			44,222	*
43		11	29		-	6	Out		No										0	100			31,509	*
42		10	29		-	7	Out		No										0	100			21,591	*
41		10	30		-	6	Out		No											100			14,470	*
40		10	31		-	5	Out		No										0	100			9,367	*
39		9	31		-	6	Out		No										0	100			5,880	*
15	-38						Out		No											100			8,500	*

Total:							2.6	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17	81			4,321,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kamloops vs Kelowna	-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

107		46	0		-	0	94	1	4		1
86		30	5		-	11											100
84		32	9		-	5										67	33
83		30	8		-	8								9	9	9	27	9	36
82		30	9		-	7								5	5	10	40	20	10	10
81		30	10		-	6								2		13	18	31	27	7	2
80		29	10		-	7										8	19	28	27	10	7		1
79		29	11		-	6										4	10	40	25	16	4		0
78		28	11		-	7										2	4	32	19	28	12	2	1
77		28	12		-	6										1	1	26	14	35	15	5	2	0
76		27	12		-	7										1	0	16	9	41	16	13	4	0
75		27	13		-	6										0	0	12	4	41	14	21	6	1	0
74		26	13		-	7										0	0	7	2	37	12	31	8	3	0
73		26	14		-	6										0		4	1	31	8	38	11	6	1	0
72		25	14		-	7										0		2	0	23	5	44	12	11	3	0	0
71		25	15		-	6												1	0	17	3	44	12	17	7	0	0
70		24	15		-	7										0		0	0	11	1	42	10	22	13	1	0
69		24	16		-	6												0		7	0	36	8	25	21	3	0
68		23	16		-	7												0		3	0	29	5	26	29	7	0
67		23	17		-	6												0		2	0	22	3	23	37	12	1
66		22	17		-	7												0		1	0	15	2	18	42	19	2
65		22	18		-	6														0		10	1	13	43	28	4	0
64		21	18		-	7												0		0		6	0	9	41	35	8	0
63		21	19		-	6														0		4	0	5	35	42	13	0
62		20	19		-	7														0		2	0	3	28	47	20	0
61		20	20		-	6														0		1	0	2	21	48	28	0
60		19	20		-	7														0		1	0	1	15	47	37	0
59		19	21		-	6																0	0	0	9	43	46	0
58		18	21		-	7														0		0		0	6	38	56	1
57		18	22		-	6																0		0	3	31	64	1
56		17	22		-	7																0		0	2	25	71	2
55		17	23		-	6																0		0	1	19	77	3
54		16	23		-	7																0		0	0	14	80	5
53		16	24		-	6																0		0	0	10	82	8
52		15	24		-	7																			0	7	82	11
51		15	25		-	6																			0	4	81	14
50		14	25		-	7																			0	3	78	19
49		14	26		-	6																			0	2	74	24
48		13	26		-	7																			0	1	69	30
47		13	27		-	6																			0	1	63	36
46		12	27		-	7																				0	57	43
45		12	28		-	6																				0	50	50
44		11	28		-	7																				0	43	57
43		11	29		-	6																				0	37	63
42		10	29		-	7																				0	30	70
41		10	30		-	6																				0	24	76
40		10	31		-	5																				0	19	81
39		9	31		-	6																					15	85
38		9	32		-	5																					11	89
37		8	32		-	6																					8	92
36		8	33		-	5																					5	95
35		7	33		-	6																					4	96
34		7	34		-	5																					3	97
33		6	34		-	6																					2	98
15	-32																											100

Total:							0	0	0		0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	9	22	55	10