Spokane Chiefs Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Beat Tri-City 4-3 (ot), playoff odds up 1.1 to 98%

35 points 17 8-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Spokane 4 Tri-City 3 (ot)	+0.8		+1.1		+0.2
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.3
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	+0.1				-0.0
Calgary 0 Everett 1			-0.2		-0.0
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1			-0.2
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)			*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Spokane vs Portland	+0.6+0.6+0.5-0.0+0.0-0.8		+2.0+1.6+1.4-0.7-0.7-2.2		+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Prince George vs Vancouver	-0.0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1
Kamloops vs Kelowna	-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1		+0.4+0.2-0.0-0.3-0.5-0.3
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer			-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.0+0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Spokane finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

109	-127						In		Yes		100												338	*
108		34	7		-	5	In		99.5	%	99	1											189	*
107		34	8		-	4	In		99.4		99	0	0										333	*
106		33	8		-	5	In		98.3		99	1	0										636	*
105		33	9		-	4	In		97.3		98	1	1										1,038	*
104		32	9		-	5	In		95.3		96	2	2										1,726	*
103		32	10		-	4	In		92.5		94	3	3										2,676	*
102		31	10		-	5	In		88.3		90	4	6										4,062	*
101		31	11		-	4	In		84.5		87	6	7	0									6,008	*
100		30	11		-	5	In		77.6		81	9	10	0									8,669	*
99		30	12		-	4	In		69.7		74	10	15	0									11,834	*
98		29	12		-	5	In		59.4		66	13	20	1									16,234	*
97		29	13		-	4	In		49.1		57	15	26	1									21,490	*
96		28	13		-	5	In		37.2		47	17	34	2	0								27,829	*
95		27	13		-	6	In		26.7		37	19	40	5	0								34,648	*
94		27	14		-	5	In		17.3		27	19	46	8	0								42,567	*
93		26	14		-	6	In		9.9		18	18	51	12	0								50,156	*
92		26	15		-	5	In		4.8		11	16	53	19	1	0							57,862	*
91		25	15		-	6	In		2.0		6	12	51	28	2	0							65,165	*
90		25	16		-	5	In		0.6		3	9	46	37	5	0							71,822	*
89		24	16		-	6	In		0.1		1	6	38	45	9	0	0						77,423	*
88		24	17		-	5	In		0.0		0	3	28	50	17	1	0						80,629	*
87		23	17		-	6	In		0.0		0	2	18	50	26	4	0	0					82,167	*
86		23	18		-	5	In		No		0	1	11	44	35	8	1	0					81,520	*
85		22	18		-	6	In		No		0	0	5	35	42	15	2	0					79,428	*
84		22	19		-	5	In		No		0	0	2	25	44	24	4	0					75,134	*
83		21	19		-	6	100.0	%	No			0	1	15	41	34	9	1	0				69,340	*
82		21	20		-	5	100.0		No			0	0	8	33	41	16	2	0				62,439	*
81		20	20		-	6	99.9		No				0	4	24	43	25	5	0				55,083	*
80		20	21		-	5	99.5		No				0	2	15	40	34	9	0	0			47,337	*
79		19	21		-	6	98.9		No					1	8	33	41	16	1	0			39,512	*
78		19	22		-	5	97.2		No				0	0	4	24	44	24	3	0			32,487	*
77		18	22		-	6	94.4		No					0	2	16	42	34	6	0			25,907	*
76		18	23		-	5	88.9		No					0	1	9	37	42	11	0			20,511	*
75		17	23		-	6	81.2		No						0	5	29	46	18	1			15,350	*
74		17	24		-	5	72.6		No						0	2	21	49	26	2			11,446	*
73		16	24		-	6	61.6		No						0	1	14	46	35	4			8,297	*
72		16	25		-	5	50.3		No							0	8	41	43	7			5,743	*
71		15	25		-	6	39.8		No						0	0	5	34	49	11			4,001	*
70		15	26		-	5	29.1		No							0	3	26	53	18			2,766	*
69		14	26		-	6	19.1		No								1	18	56	25			1,710	*
68		14	27		-	5	13.0		No								1	12	54	33			1,103	*
67		14	28		-	4	9.0		No								0	9	50	41			711	*
66		13	28		-	5	5.6		No									6	45	50			426	*
65		12	28		-	6	4.6		No									5	39	57			263	*
64		12	29		-	5	2.5		No									3	35	63			120	*
63		11	29		-	6	1.1		No									1	26	73			89	*
62		11	30		-	5	Out		No										25	75			36	*
61		11	31		-	4	Out		No										19	81			27	*
60		10	31		-	5	Out		No										19	81			16	*
59		10	32		-	4	Out		No										13	88			8	*
58		10	33		-	3	Out		No											100			5	*
57		9	33		-	4	Out		No										25	75			4	*
35	-55						Out		No											100			148	*

Total:							98.0	%	6.7	%	9	5	20	22	17	12	8	5	2	0			1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Spokane 4 Tri-City 3 (ot)	-0.5
Calgary 0 Everett 1	+0.1
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	+0.0
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	+0.0
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Spokane vs Portland	-0.6-0.5-0.5+0.2+0.1+0.7
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

109	-127						100
108		34	7		-	5	99		1
107		34	8		-	4	99		0		0
106		33	8		-	5	98	1	1		0
105		33	9		-	4	97	0	1		1
104		32	9		-	5	95	1	2		2
103		32	10		-	4	92	2	3		3
102		31	10		-	5	88	2	4		6
101		31	11		-	4	84	2	6		7		0
100		30	11		-	5	78	4	9		10		0
99		30	12		-	4	70	5	10		15	0	0
98		29	12		-	5	59	7	13	0	20	0	1
97		29	13		-	4	49	8	15	0	26	0	1
96		28	13		-	5	37	10	17	0	33	0	2		0
95		27	13		-	6	27	10	19	0	40	0	5		0
94		27	14		-	5	17	10	19	0	45	1	8		0
93		26	14		-	6	10	8	17	1	49	2	12	0	0
92		26	15		-	5	5	6	15	1	50	3	19	0	1		0
91		25	15		-	6	2	4	11	1	46	6	28	0	2		0
90		25	16		-	5	1	2	7	2	38	8	37	1	5	0	0
89		24	16		-	6	0	1	4	2	27	11	44	1	9	0	0		0
88		24	17		-	5	0	0	2	1	17	11	47	3	16	0	1		0
87		23	17		-	6	0	0	1	1	8	10	43	7	26	0	4		0		0
86		23	18		-	5		0	0	0	3	7	34	11	34	1	8	0	1		0
85		22	18		-	6		0	0	0	1	5	21	14	38	4	15	0	2		0
84		22	19		-	5		0	0	0	0	2	10	14	35	9	23	1	4	0	0
83		21	19		-	6				0	0	1	4	11	26	15	31	3	9	0	1		0
82		21	20		-	5			0	0	0	0	1	7	15	18	33	8	15	1	2	0	0
81		20	20		-	6						0	0	4	6	17	27	16	23	2	5	0	0
80		20	21		-	5						0	0	2	2	13	18	22	27	7	9	0	0	0
79		19	21		-	6							0	1	0	8	8	25	26	16	14	1	1	0
78		19	22		-	5						0		0	0	4	3	22	18	25	19	5	3	0	0
77		18	22		-	6								0	0	2	1	16	10	32	21	13	5	1	0
76		18	23		-	5								0		1	0	9	4	33	18	23	9	2	0	0
75		17	23		-	6										0	0	5	1	28	12	34	12	5	1	0
74		17	24		-	5										0		2	0	20	7	42	13	10	4	0	0
73		16	24		-	6										0		1	0	14	3	43	12	16	9	2	0
72		16	25		-	5												0		8	1	40	9	19	16	5	0	0
71		15	25		-	6										0		0		5	0	34	6	19	24	10	1	0
70		15	26		-	5												0		3	0	26	4	16	28	19	4	0
69		14	26		-	6														1		18	2	11	33	27	8	0
68		14	27		-	5														1		12	1	7	27	38	14	1
67		14	28		-	4														0		9		4	22	41	21	2
66		13	28		-	5																6		3	18	41	28	5
65		12	28		-	6																5	0	0	14	35	38	8
64		12	29		-	5																3		3	8	24	49	13
63		11	29		-	6																1			3	20	58	17
62		11	30		-	5																			3	42	33	22
61		11	31		-	4																			4	11	52	33
60		10	31		-	5																					75	25
59		10	32		-	4																				13	38	50
58		10	33		-	3																					20	80
57		9	33		-	4																				25	25	50
35	-55																											100

Total:							7	2	5	1	16	4	18	4	12	4	8	4	5	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0