Everett Silvertips Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Beat Calgary 1-0, playoff odds up 0.2 to 99.8%

42 points 19 4-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary 0 Everett 1	+0.1		+4.0		+0.2
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.1
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1			-0.4
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2			*-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Kamloops vs Kelowna			+1.4+0.1-0.0-0.7-1.3-1.1
Spokane vs Portland			+0.7-0.0-0.1-0.6-0.8-0.5
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer			-0.6-0.5-0.2-0.0*+0.1+0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Everett finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

114	-132						In		Yes		100												450	*
113		33	7		-	5	In		99.3	%	100	0											299	*
111	-112						In		Yes		100												1,365	*
110		32	9		-	4	In		99.4		100	0	0										1,426	*
109		31	9		-	5	In		99.5		100	0											2,248	*
108		31	10		-	4	In		99.3		99	1	0										3,491	*
107		30	10		-	5	In		98.9		99	1	0										5,332	*
106		30	11		-	4	In		98.4		99	1	0										7,826	*
105		29	11		-	5	In		97.2		98	2	0										11,244	*
104		29	12		-	4	In		95.8		97	3	1										15,210	*
103		28	12		-	5	In		93.6		95	4	1										20,339	*
102		28	13		-	4	In		90.7		93	5	2										26,677	*
101		27	13		-	5	In		86.3		89	7	3	0									33,376	*
100		27	14		-	4	In		80.8		85	10	5	0									41,057	*
99		26	14		-	5	In		73.1		79	13	8	0									49,448	*
98		25	14		-	6	In		63.9		72	16	12	0									57,277	*
97		25	15		-	5	In		53.7		64	19	17	0	0								64,919	*
96		24	15		-	6	In		42.3		54	22	23	1	0								71,753	*
95		24	16		-	5	In		31.1		44	25	30	2	0								77,613	*
94		23	16		-	6	In		20.4		33	26	37	4	0								81,750	*
93		23	17		-	5	In		12.3		24	26	43	7	0								82,759	*
92		22	17		-	6	In		6.1		16	24	48	13	1	0							82,854	*
91		22	18		-	5	In		2.7		9	20	49	20	2	0							80,167	*
90		21	18		-	6	In		0.9		5	15	47	29	4	0							76,247	*
89		21	19		-	5	In		0.3		2	11	41	38	8	0	0						70,324	*
88		20	19		-	6	In		0.0		1	7	32	44	15	1	0						63,612	*
87		20	20		-	5	In		0.0		0	4	22	46	24	4	0	0					55,891	*
86		19	20		-	6	In		No		0	2	13	42	34	9	1	0					48,435	*
85		19	21		-	5	In		No		0	1	7	33	41	17	2	0					40,391	*
84		18	21		-	6	In		No			0	3	22	42	27	6	0					33,033	*
83		18	22		-	5	100.0	%	No			0	1	13	38	36	11	1	0				26,468	*
82		17	22		-	6	100.0		No			0	0	7	29	42	19	3	0				20,640	*
81		17	23		-	5	99.7		No				0	3	20	41	29	6	0				15,557	*
80		16	23		-	6	99.4		No				0	1	12	37	38	12	1				11,558	*
79		16	24		-	5	98.4		No					0	6	29	43	20	2				8,422	*
78		15	24		-	6	96.3		No					0	3	20	44	28	4	0			5,814	*
77		15	25		-	5	92.7		No						1	12	41	38	7	0			4,042	*
76		14	25		-	6	88.3		No					0	0	7	35	46	11	0			2,646	*
75		14	26		-	5	80.3		No						0	4	26	50	19	1			1,648	*
74		14	27		-	4	70.5		No							2	19	50	28	2			1,126	*
73		13	27		-	5	59.7		No							1	11	48	36	4			668	*
72		13	28		-	4	49.8		No							0	5	44	45	5			412	*
71		12	28		-	5	41.0		No								3	38	51	8			234	*
70		12	29		-	4	41.9		No							1	3	38	47	11			117	*
69		11	29		-	5	17.6		No								1	16	57	26			74	*
68		10	29		-	6	27.0		No								3	24	57	16			37	*
67		9	29		-	7	16.7		No									17	56	28			18	*
66		9	30		-	6	Out		No										27	73			11	*
65		10	32		-	3	Out		No										38	63			8	*
64		9	32		-	4	Out		No										33	67			3
63		9	33		-	3	Out		No										25	75			4	*
42	-62						Out		No											100			148	*

Total:							99.8	%	26.8	%	32	14	24	14	8	4	2	1	0	0			1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary 0 Everett 1	-0.4
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	+0.0
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Spokane vs Portland	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Kamloops vs Kelowna	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

114	-132						100
113		33	7		-	5	99	0	0
111	-112						100
110		32	9		-	4	99	0	0		0
109		31	9		-	5	99	0	0
108		31	10		-	4	99	0	1		0
107		30	10		-	5	99	0	1		0
106		30	11		-	4	98	0	1		0
105		29	11		-	5	97	1	2		0
104		29	12		-	4	96	1	3		1
103		28	12		-	5	94	1	4		1
102		28	13		-	4	91	2	5		2
101		27	13		-	5	86	3	7		3		0
100		27	14		-	4	81	4	10		5		0
99		26	14		-	5	73	6	13	0	8	0	0
98		25	14		-	6	64	8	16	0	12	0	0
97		25	15		-	5	54	10	19	0	17	0	0		0
96		24	15		-	6	42	12	22	0	23	0	1		0
95		24	16		-	5	31	13	24	0	29	0	2		0
94		23	16		-	6	20	13	26	1	36	1	4		0
93		23	17		-	5	12	12	25	1	41	2	7	0	0
92		22	17		-	6	6	10	22	2	44	3	12	0	1		0
91		22	18		-	5	3	7	17	3	43	6	20	0	2		0
90		21	18		-	6	1	4	12	3	38	9	28	0	4		0
89		21	19		-	5	0	2	8	3	29	12	36	1	8	0	0		0
88		20	19		-	6	0	1	4	3	18	13	41	3	15	0	1		0
87		20	20		-	5	0	0	2	2	9	12	39	7	24	0	4	0	0		0
86		19	20		-	6		0	1	1	4	9	30	11	33	2	9	0	1		0
85		19	21		-	5		0	0	0	1	5	18	14	37	4	17	0	2		0
84		18	21		-	6			0	0	0	3	8	14	33	9	26	1	5	0	0
83		18	22		-	5				0	0	1	3	10	23	14	32	4	11	0	1		0
82		17	22		-	6				0	0	0	1	6	12	17	33	9	18	1	3	0	0
81		17	23		-	5						0	0	3	5	15	25	16	26	3	6	0	0
80		16	23		-	6						0	0	1	1	11	15	22	29	9	11	1	1
79		16	24		-	5								0	0	6	7	22	25	18	18	2	2	0	0
78		15	24		-	6								0	0	3	2	18	18	26	22	7	4	0
77		15	25		-	5										1	1	12	10	32	22	15	7	1
76		14	25		-	6								0		0	0	7	4	31	18	28	9	2	0
75		14	26		-	5										0		4	2	25	13	37	13	5	1	0
74		14	27		-	4												2	0	19	8	42	15	10	4	1
73		13	27		-	5												1		11	3	45	12	16	11	1
72		13	28		-	4												0		5	1	43	8	21	17	4
71		12	28		-	5														3		38	5	15	26	10	3
70		12	29		-	4												1		3		38	3	15	25	14	1	1
69		11	29		-	5														1		16	1	14	31	24	11	1
68		10	29		-	6														3		24		8	27	32	5
67		9	29		-	7																17			11	61	11
66		9	30		-	6																			9	36	55
65		10	32		-	3																			13	38	38	13
64		9	32		-	4																					100
63		9	33		-	3																			25	25	25	25
42	-62																											100

Total:							27	6	13	1	21	4	12	2	6	1	3	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0