Lethbridge Hurricanes Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Lost to Prince Albert 2-8, playoff odds down 0.7 to 1.1%

10 points 3 20-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	-0.7		No		-0.1
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.5		+0.0NoNoNoNoNo		+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Lethbridge finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

88	-100						In		79.1	%	100												148	*
87		38	6		-	1	In		No		50			50									2	*
86		36	5		-	4	In		No		13	25	38	13	13								8	*
85		35	5		-	5	In		No			18	24	35	18	6							17	*
84		35	6		-	4	In		No			5	26	44	23	3							39	*
83		35	7		-	3	In		No		1	5	15	37	28	11	2						81	*
82		34	7		-	4	In		No			2	11	26	34	19	6	1					148	*
81		33	7		-	5	In		No			0	2	15	38	33	12	1					261	*
80		33	8		-	4	99.4	%	No			0	1	7	26	36	22	7	1				486	*
79		32	8		-	5	95.6		No			0	0	3	14	31	31	16	4	0			865	*
78		32	9		-	4	88.8		No					0	6	23	34	25	10	1			1,412	*
77		31	9		-	5	75.9		No					0	3	11	28	34	19	5	0		2,179	*
76		31	10		-	4	61.0		No						1	6	19	35	28	10	1	0	3,493	*
75		30	10		-	5	41.6		No						0	2	11	29	36	18	4	0	5,455	*
74		30	11		-	4	23.5		No							0	5	18	37	30	9	1	7,819	*
73		29	11		-	5	12.5		No							0	1	11	31	39	17	2	11,239	*
72		29	12		-	4	5.8		No							0	0	5	22	42	26	4	15,315	*
71		28	12		-	5	2.2		No								0	2	14	39	35	9	20,349	*
70		28	13		-	4	0.8		No								0	1	8	32	44	15	26,569	*
69		27	13		-	5	0.2		No								0	0	4	25	48	23	33,633	*
68		26	13		-	6	0.1		No								0	0	2	17	48	32	41,384	*
67		26	14		-	5	0.0		No									0	1	11	45	42	48,965	*
66		25	14		-	6	Out		No										0	7	40	52	56,994	*
65		25	15		-	5	Out		No										0	4	35	61	64,681	*
64		24	15		-	6	Out		No										0	2	28	70	71,816	*
63		24	16		-	5	Out		No										0	1	22	77	48,484	*
		25	17		-	3	Out		No										0	1	22	77	29,143	*
62		23	16		-	6	Out		No											0	16	83	46,543	*
		24	17		-	4	Out		No										0	1	17	82	34,931	*
61		23	17		-	5	Out		No										0	0	12	88	52,064	*
		24	18		-	3	Out		No											0	13	87	31,115	*
60		22	17		-	6	Out		No										0	0	9	91	82,684	*
59		22	18		-	5	Out		No											0	6	94	50,306	*
		23	19		-	3	Out		No											0	6	94	30,003	*
58		21	18		-	6	Out		No											0	4	96	76,757	*
57		21	19		-	5	Out		No											0	3	97	70,736	*
56		20	19		-	6	Out		No											0	2	98	28,226	*
		21	20		-	4	Out		No												2	98	35,748	*
55		20	20		-	5	Out		No												1	99	56,054	*
54		19	20		-	6	Out		No												1	99	47,902	*
53		19	21		-	5	Out		No												1	99	40,376	*
52		18	21		-	6	Out		No												0	100	33,138	*
51		18	22		-	5	Out		No												0	100	26,063	*
50		17	22		-	6	Out		No												0	100	20,515	*
49		17	23		-	5	Out		No												0	100	15,481	*
48		16	23		-	6	Out		No												0	100	11,562	*
47		16	24		-	5	Out		No												0	100	8,233	*
46		15	24		-	6	Out		No												0	100	5,778	*
45		15	25		-	5	Out		No												0	100	4,045	*
10	-44						Out		No													100	7,223	*

Total:							1.1	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	16	76	1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

100		45	0		-	0	80	20
88		38	5		-	2		100
87		38	6		-	1		50					50
86		36	5		-	4		13		25		38	13		13
85		35	5		-	5				18		24		35	6	12	6
84		35	6		-	4				5		26	5	38	15	8	3
83		35	7		-	3		1	1	4		15	1	36	9	20	9	2	2
82		34	7		-	4				2		11		26	8	26	12	7	6		1
81		33	7		-	5				0		2		15	3	34	12	21	10	2	0	0
80		33	8		-	4				0		1		7	1	24	13	23	15	7	7		1
79		32	8		-	5				0		0		3		14	5	26	18	13	15	1	4	0
78		32	9		-	4								0		6	2	21	15	19	21	4	10	1
77		31	9		-	5								0		3	1	10	9	20	24	10	19	5	0
76		31	10		-	4										1	0	6	3	16	21	14	26	12	1	0
75		30	10		-	5										0		2	1	10	13	16	32	21	5	1	0
74		30	11		-	4												0	0	5	6	13	29	32	13	2	0
73		29	11		-	5												0	0	1	2	9	21	37	23	6	1	0
72		29	12		-	4												0		0	1	5	13	33	32	13	2	0
71		28	12		-	5														0	0	2	7	26	37	22	6	1
70		28	13		-	4														0	0	1	3	16	35	32	12	2
69		27	13		-	5														0	0	0	1	9	28	37	20	4
68		26	13		-	6														0		0	0	4	20	38	30	7
67		26	14		-	5																0	0	2	13	35	38	13
66		25	14		-	6																	0	1	7	29	43	21
65		25	15		-	5																	0	0	4	21	45	30
64		24	15		-	6																	0	0	2	15	44	40
63		24	16		-	5																		0	1	10	40	50
62		23	16		-	6																			0	5	34	60
		24	17		-	4																		0	0	6	36	57
61		23	17		-	5																			0	3	29	68
		24	18		-	3																			0	3	30	67
60		22	17		-	6																			0	2	23	75
59		22	18		-	5																		0	0	1	18	81
58		21	18		-	6																			0	0	13	86
57		21	19		-	5																			0	0	10	90
56		20	19		-	6																				0	7	93
55		20	20		-	5																				0	5	95
54		19	20		-	6																				0	3	97
53		19	21		-	5																				0	2	98
52		18	21		-	6																				0	1	99
51		18	22		-	5																					1	99
50		17	22		-	6																				0	1	99
49		17	23		-	5																					0	100
48		16	23		-	6																					0	100
47		16	24		-	5																					0	100
46		15	24		-	6																					0	100
45		15	25		-	5																					0	100
44		14	25		-	6																					0	100
43		14	26		-	5																					0	100
10	-42																											100

Total:							0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	9	21	61