Swift Current Broncos Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Beat Moose Jaw 5-4 (ot), playoff odds up 2.8 to 90%

35 points 16 10-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	+2.8		+0.4		+0.3
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.5
Calgary 0 Everett 1			-0.1
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2					-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Swift Current vs Calgary	+2.5+2.1+2.1*-0.3-0.4-3.0		+0.6+0.5+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.6		+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.4-0.0-0.0-0.3-0.5-0.3
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.3-0.1+0.1-0.5*-0.3-0.2		-0.1+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	+0.2-0.1+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2
Regina vs Prince Albert					+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Kamloops vs Kelowna			+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.1
Spokane vs Portland			+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Swift Current finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

105	-121						In		98.5	%	100												336	*
104		32	6		-	5	In		92.0		99	1											176	*
103		32	7		-	4	In		84.9		99	1											304	*
102		31	7		-	5	In		85.7		99	1											580	*
101		31	8		-	4	In		77.3		98	2	0										1,101	*
100		30	8		-	5	In		70.6		98	2	0										1,732	*
99		30	9		-	4	In		59.8		94	5	1										2,831	*
98		29	9		-	5	In		51.2		93	7	1										4,334	*
97		29	10		-	4	In		40.3		90	9	1										6,336	*
96		28	10		-	5	In		29.5		85	13	2	0									9,366	*
95		28	11		-	4	In		19.8		80	18	2										13,566	*
94		27	11		-	5	In		12.3		72	24	4	0									18,358	*
93		27	12		-	4	In		6.7		64	30	6	0									24,062	*
92		26	12		-	5	In		3.1		53	38	9	0	0								30,776	*
91		26	13		-	4	In		1.2		42	45	12	1	0								38,948	*
90		25	13		-	5	In		0.4		32	50	16	2	0	0							46,759	*
89		25	14		-	4	In		0.1		22	54	19	5	0	0							55,772	*
88		24	14		-	5	In		0.0		14	55	22	8	1	0	0						63,950	*
87		24	15		-	4	In		No		8	52	23	14	3	0	0						71,724	*
86		23	15		-	5	In		No		4	47	21	20	7	1	0	0					76,999	*
85		23	16		-	4	In		No		1	39	17	26	14	3	0	0					82,631	*
84		22	16		-	5	In		No		0	31	12	27	22	7	1	0					84,830	*
83		22	17		-	4	100.0	%	No		0	22	7	24	29	14	3	0	0				84,535	*
82		21	17		-	5	100.0		No		0	15	3	18	32	24	7	1	0	0			83,087	*
81		21	18		-	4	99.7		No		0	9	1	10	29	32	15	3	0	0			79,128	*
80		20	18		-	5	99.0		No		0	5	0	5	21	35	25	8	1	0			73,008	*
79		20	19		-	4	96.9		No			3	0	2	12	30	34	16	3	0	0		66,464	*
78		19	19		-	5	91.5		No			1	0	1	6	22	36	26	8	1	0		58,300	*
77		18	19		-	6	82.1		No			0	0	0	2	13	32	35	16	2	0		50,295	*
76		18	20		-	5	68.0		No			0		0	1	6	23	38	26	6	0		41,816	*
75		18	21		-	4	50.9		No			0		0	0	2	14	35	35	12	1	0	34,238	*
74		17	21		-	5	34.7		No			0			0	1	7	27	40	22	3	0	27,100	*
73		17	22		-	4	21.5		No						0	0	3	18	41	31	7	0	20,928	*
72		16	22		-	5	11.9		No							0	1	11	35	40	12	0	15,867	*
71		16	23		-	4	6.1		No								1	6	27	46	20	1	11,488	*
70		15	23		-	5	2.5		No								0	2	19	47	29	2	8,305	*
69		15	24		-	4	1.0		No									1	12	45	39	3	5,739	*
68		14	24		-	5	0.5		No									1	7	39	47	6	3,891	*
67		14	25		-	4	0.2		No									0	4	32	55	9	2,615	*
66		13	25		-	5	Out		No										2	23	61	14	1,611	*
65		13	26		-	4	Out		No										1	18	62	19	1,004	*
64		12	26		-	5	Out		No										0	10	59	30	597	*
63		12	27		-	4	Out		No											7	59	34	373	*
62		11	27		-	5	Out		No											3	52	45	223	*
61		11	28		-	4	Out		No											2	46	52	112	*
60		11	29		-	3	Out		No											2	43	56	54	*
59		10	29		-	4	Out		No											3	45	53	40	*
58		9	29		-	5	Out		No												19	81	16	*
57		9	30		-	4	Out		No												33	67	6	*
56		9	31		-	3	Out		No												17	83	6	*
35	-55						Out		No													100	151	*

Total:							90.0	%	1.6	%	11	24	8	10	11	10	9	7	5	3	1	0	1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	-0.6
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	+0.1
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	-0.1
Calgary 0 Everett 1	-0.0
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	-0.0
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	+0.0
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	*+0.0
Spokane 4 Tri-City 3 (ot)	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Swift Current vs Calgary	-0.7-0.6-0.6+0.2+0.2+0.9
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Seattle vs Saskatoon	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

106	-121						100
105		33	6		-	4	95	5
104		32	6		-	5	92	7	1
103		32	7		-	4	85	14	1
102		31	7		-	5	86	13	1
101		31	8		-	4	77	21	2		0
100		30	8		-	5	71	27	2	0	0
99		30	9		-	4	60	35	5	0	1
98		29	9		-	5	51	42	6	0	1
97		29	10		-	4	40	50	8	1	1	0
96		28	10		-	5	30	56	12	1	2	0	0
95		28	11		-	4	20	60	15	3	2	0
94		27	11		-	5	12	60	18	6	3	1	0
93		27	12		-	4	7	57	20	10	4	2	0
92		26	12		-	5	3	50	22	16	6	3	0	0	0
91		26	13		-	4	1	41	21	24	6	6	1	0	0
90		25	13		-	5	0	31	18	32	6	10	2	0	0		0
89		25	14		-	4	0	22	14	39	5	14	3	1	0	0	0
88		24	14		-	5	0	14	11	44	3	19	5	3	1	0	0		0
87		24	15		-	4		8	7	45	2	21	7	7	3	0	0	0	0
86		23	15		-	5		4	4	43	1	20	6	14	6	2	1	0	0		0
85		23	16		-	4		1	2	37	0	17	5	21	8	5	3	0	0	0	0
84		22	16		-	5		0	1	30	0	12	3	24	10	12	6	1	1	0	0
83		22	17		-	4		0	0	22	0	7	1	23	9	20	11	4	3	0	0	0	0
82		21	17		-	5		0	0	15	0	3	0	17	5	27	14	10	7	1	1	0	0	0
81		21	18		-	4		0	0	9		1	0	10	2	26	13	19	12	3	3	0	0	0
80		20	18		-	5		0	0	5		0	0	5	1	20	9	25	18	8	8	0	1	0
79		20	19		-	4				3		0	0	2	0	12	5	26	19	15	15	1	3	0	0
78		19	19		-	5			0	1		0		1	0	6	2	20	14	22	21	5	8	1	0
77		18	19		-	6				0		0		0		2	0	12	8	24	24	10	15	3	0	0
76		18	20		-	5				0				0		1	0	6	3	20	22	16	24	7	1	0
75		18	21		-	4				0				0		0	0	2	1	13	15	19	31	15	3	0	0
74		17	21		-	5				0						0		1	0	7	8	18	32	25	7	1	0
73		17	22		-	4										0		0	0	3	3	15	28	34	14	2	0
72		16	22		-	5												0		1	1	9	20	37	24	6	1
71		16	23		-	4														1	0	5	12	34	33	13	2	0
70		15	23		-	5														0	0	2	7	27	37	22	5	0
69		15	24		-	4															0	1	3	19	37	31	9	1
68		14	24		-	5																1	1	11	33	37	16	2
67		14	25		-	4																0	1	6	24	41	25	4
66		13	25		-	5																	0	3	18	43	31	6
65		13	26		-	4																	0	1	12	36	42	9
64		12	26		-	5																		0	4	28	50	17
63		12	27		-	4																		0	3	25	49	22
62		11	27		-	5																			1	17	49	32
61		11	28		-	4																				9	50	41
60		11	29		-	3																				6	50	44
59		10	29		-	4																				5	48	48
58		9	29		-	5																					25	75
57		9	30		-	4																					33	67
56		9	31		-	3																					17	83
35	-55																											100

Total:							2	9	5	19	1	7	2	8	3	8	4	6	5	4	5	3	4	3	2	1	0	0