Red Deer Rebels Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Beat Prince George 5-1, playoff odds up 5.5 to 66%

26 points 12 12-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+4.8		+0.1		+0.3
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.6				+0.0
Calgary 0 Everett 1					+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	-5.8-0.9-0.9+4.3+4.3+4.7		-0.1-0.0-0.1*+0.0+0.1+0.1		-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.8+0.4+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.2-0.7-0.7-0.0-0.2+0.5
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	+0.5-0.3+0.1*-0.5-0.5-0.3
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	+0.4-0.1+0.0-0.4-0.3-0.3
Swift Current vs Calgary	+0.2-0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6*+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Deer finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

100	-118						In		86.5	%	100												341	*
99		34	7		-	5	In		68.7		96	1	3										179	*
98		34	8		-	4	In		53.8		95	0	5										355	*
97		33	8		-	5	In		47.0		95	1	4										564	*
96		33	9		-	4	In		32.9		89	2	9	0									986	*
95		32	9		-	5	In		23.4		84	4	12	0									1,614	*
94		32	10		-	4	In		14.6		76	6	17	1									2,574	*
93		31	10		-	5	In		7.9		69	8	22	1									3,987	*
92		31	11		-	4	In		3.9		59	10	29	2	0								5,930	*
91		30	11		-	5	In		1.5		46	13	36	5	0								8,546	*
90		30	12		-	4	In		0.5		35	14	42	8	1								11,926	*
89		29	12		-	5	In		0.1		25	15	45	14	1	0							16,158	*
88		29	13		-	4	In		0.0		15	14	47	21	3	0							21,457	*
87		28	13		-	5	In		0.0		8	13	43	29	6	0	0						27,782	*
86		27	13		-	6	In		No		4	10	36	36	12	2	0	0					34,641	*
85		27	14		-	5	In		No		2	7	27	40	20	4	0	0					42,680	*
84		26	14		-	6	100.0	%	No		0	4	17	39	29	9	1	0	0				50,294	*
83		26	15		-	5	100.0		No		0	2	9	31	36	17	4	0	0				57,742	*
82		25	15		-	6	99.9		No		0	1	4	21	37	27	9	1	0				65,299	*
81		25	16		-	5	99.7		No		0	0	1	12	30	34	17	4	0	0			72,038	*
80		24	16		-	6	98.8		No		0	0	0	5	21	36	27	9	1	0			76,806	*
79		24	17		-	5	96.3		No		0	0	0	2	12	30	35	18	3	0	0		80,803	*
78		23	17		-	6	90.7		No			0	0	1	5	21	37	28	9	1	0		82,074	*
77		23	18		-	5	81.0		No			0	0	0	2	12	31	36	17	2	0		82,059	*
76		22	18		-	6	67.4		No					0	0	5	22	39	27	6	0		78,991	*
75		22	19		-	5	51.2		No					0	0	2	13	36	36	12	1	0	75,036	*
74		21	19		-	6	35.6		No						0	1	7	28	42	20	2	0	69,564	*
73		21	20		-	5	22.4		No						0	0	3	19	43	30	5	0	62,670	*
72		20	20		-	6	12.6		No						0	0	1	11	39	39	10	0	55,100	*
71		20	21		-	5	6.5		No						0	0	0	6	32	45	16	1	47,418	*
70		19	21		-	6	3.3		No								0	3	23	49	24	1	39,814	*
69		19	22		-	5	1.4		No								0	1	15	47	33	3	32,396	*
68		18	22		-	6	0.6		No								0	1	10	42	43	5	26,114	*
67		18	23		-	5	0.2		No									0	6	36	50	8	20,262	*
66		17	23		-	6	0.0		No									0	3	30	55	12	15,266	*
65		17	24		-	5	0.0		No									0	2	21	59	18	11,456	*
64		16	24		-	6	Out		No										1	16	59	24	8,144	*
63		16	25		-	5	Out		No										0	11	58	31	5,924	*
62		15	25		-	6	Out		No										0	8	52	39	4,102	*
61		15	26		-	5	Out		No											6	48	47	2,614	*
60		14	26		-	6	Out		No											2	45	53	1,790	*
59		14	27		-	5	Out		No											2	34	64	1,135	*
58		13	27		-	6	Out		No											1	28	71	685	*
57		13	28		-	5	Out		No											0	23	77	442	*
56		12	28		-	6	Out		No												17	83	236	*
55		12	29		-	5	Out		No											1	9	90	151	*
54		11	29		-	6	Out		No												8	92	97	*
53		12	31		-	3	Out		No												3	98	40	*
52		10	30		-	6	Out		No												10	90	21	*
26	-51						Out		No													100	165	*

Total:							66.0	%	0.2	%	2	2	6	9	10	11	12	14	14	12	7	1	1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.6
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	+0.1
Calgary 0 Everett 1	-0.1
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	-0.0
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.8+0.2+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Swift Current vs Calgary	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	-0.0+0.0-0.0*+0.1+0.0+0.0
Regina vs Prince Albert	+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

103	-118						100
102		36	6		-	4	90	10
101		35	6		-	5	74	26
100		35	7		-	4	69	31
99		34	7		-	5	69	27	1		3
98		34	8		-	4	54	41	0		5
97		33	8		-	5	47	48	1		3	0
96		33	9		-	4	33	56	2	0	8	0	0
95		32	9		-	5	23	61	3	1	11	1	0
94		32	10		-	4	15	62	5	2	14	3	1
93		31	10		-	5	8	61	5	2	17	5	1
92		31	11		-	4	4	55	6	4	19	9	2	0	0
91		30	11		-	5	1	45	6	7	18	17	5	0	0
90		30	12		-	4	1	35	5	9	17	25	7	1	1
89		29	12		-	5	0	25	4	11	12	33	10	3	1	0	0
88		29	13		-	4	0	15	3	12	8	38	13	7	3	0	0
87		28	13		-	5	0	8	2	11	4	39	14	15	5	1	0	0	0
86		27	13		-	6		4	1	9	2	35	12	24	9	3	2	0	0		0
85		27	14		-	5		2	0	7	0	26	8	32	13	7	4	0	0	0	0
84		26	14		-	6		0	0	4	0	17	4	34	14	15	8	1	1	0	0		0
83		26	15		-	5		0	0	2	0	9	2	30	11	24	13	4	4	0	0		0
82		25	15		-	6		0	0	1	0	4	0	21	7	30	16	11	8	1	1	0	0
81		25	16		-	5		0		0		1	0	12	3	28	15	19	15	3	4	0	0	0
80		24	16		-	6		0		0		0	0	5	1	20	10	26	20	8	9	0	1	0
79		24	17		-	5		0		0		0	0	2	0	12	5	25	20	15	16	2	3	0	0
78		23	17		-	6				0		0		1	0	5	2	19	15	22	23	5	8	1	0
77		23	18		-	5				0		0		0	0	2	0	11	8	23	26	10	16	3	0	0
76		22	18		-	6								0		0	0	5	4	19	23	16	25	7	1	0	0
75		22	19		-	5								0		0	0	2	1	12	16	20	32	14	2	0	0
74		21	19		-	6										0	0	1	0	7	9	20	33	25	6	1	0
73		21	20		-	5										0		0	0	3	4	15	30	33	13	2	0	0
72		20	20		-	6										0		0	0	1	1	10	22	38	21	5	0	0
71		20	21		-	5										0		0	0	0	0	6	14	36	31	11	1	0
70		19	21		-	6														0	0	3	8	30	37	19	3	0
69		19	22		-	5														0	0	1	4	21	38	28	7	0
68		18	22		-	6														0	0	1	2	13	34	36	13	1
67		18	23		-	5																0	1	8	28	41	21	2
66		17	23		-	6																0	0	4	21	41	29	5
65		17	24		-	5																0	0	2	13	38	38	9
64		16	24		-	6																	0	1	8	33	45	14
63		16	25		-	5																		0	5	26	49	20
62		15	25		-	6																		0	3	21	47	29
61		15	26		-	5																		0	1	14	48	36
60		14	26		-	6																			0	9	47	44
59		14	27		-	5																			0	6	38	56
58		13	27		-	6																				3	32	65
57		13	28		-	5																				2	25	73
56		12	28		-	6																				1	18	81
55		12	29		-	5																				1	15	85
54		11	29		-	6																					9	91
53		12	31		-	3																					3	98
52		10	30		-	6																					10	90
26	-51																											100

Total:							0	2	0	2	1	5	2	7	2	7	4	7	6	7	8	6	10	9	7	5	2	1