Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Brandon Wheat Kings Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Lost to Kootenay 2-5, playoff odds down 6.2 to 63.9%

27 points 13 13-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	-5.6		-0.2		-0.4
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.7
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.5
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	-0.3				-0.0
Calgary 0 Everett 1	+0.3		*-0.0
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	-6.4-1.2-1.4+4.3+4.9+5.3		-0.1*-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1		-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+1.1-0.0-0.0-0.8-0.9-0.8
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.9-0.1-0.1-0.5*-0.5-0.7
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.3-0.7-0.6-0.1-0.4+0.5
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	+0.4+0.0-0.1*-0.2-0.6-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Brandon finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

102	-117						In		99.5	%	100												182	*
101		35	6		-	4	In		71.4		95	5											42	*
100		34	6		-	5	In		71.1		99	1											76	*
99		34	7		-	4	In		61.6		96	3	1										146	*
98		34	8		-	3	In		58.5		97	3	0										272	*
97		33	8		-	4	In		39.7		91	8	1										489	*
96		32	8		-	5	In		31.5		85	12	2										868	*
95		32	9		-	4	In		18.7		80	16	3	0									1,429	*
94		31	9		-	5	In		12.6		73	22	5	0									2,397	*
93		31	10		-	4	In		6.7		64	28	7	0									3,679	*
92		30	10		-	5	In		3.1		54	34	11	1									5,338	*
91		30	11		-	4	In		1.2		42	42	15	1	0								8,050	*
90		29	11		-	5	In		0.4		31	46	20	3	0	0							11,205	*
89		29	12		-	4	In		0.1		22	49	23	6	1	0							15,332	*
88		28	12		-	5	In		0.0		13	48	26	11	2	0	0						20,317	*
87		28	13		-	4	In		0.0		7	45	26	17	4	0	0						26,483	*
86		27	13		-	5	In		No		3	39	24	24	9	2	0	0					33,535	*
85		26	13		-	6	In		No		1	30	19	29	17	4	0	0					41,285	*
84		26	14		-	5	100.0	%	No		0	22	12	29	25	10	1	0	0				49,232	*
83		25	14		-	6	100.0		No		0	15	6	24	32	18	4	0	0				57,314	*
82		25	15		-	5	99.9		No		0	9	3	16	32	27	10	2	0				64,967	*
81		24	15		-	6	99.5		No		0	5	1	9	27	33	19	5	0	0			71,960	*
80		24	16		-	5	98.3		No			3	0	4	18	34	29	10	2	0			77,095	*
79		23	16		-	6	95.3		No			1	0	1	10	28	35	20	4	0	0		80,838	*
78		23	17		-	5	88.8		No			0	0	0	4	18	35	30	10	1	0		83,165	*
77		22	17		-	6	77.9		No			0		0	1	10	29	37	19	3	0	0	83,177	*
76		22	18		-	5	63.0		No			0	0	0	0	4	20	38	29	7	0		80,368	*
75		21	18		-	6	46.3		No			0			0	2	11	33	38	14	1	0	76,348	*
74		21	19		-	5	31.0		No			0			0	0	6	25	42	24	3	0	70,604	*
73		20	19		-	6	18.9		No							0	2	16	41	33	7	0	63,322	*
72		20	20		-	5	10.6		No							0	1	10	35	42	12	0	56,140	*
71		19	20		-	6	5.1		No							0	0	5	28	47	20	1	48,297	*
70		19	21		-	5	2.4		No								0	2	20	49	28	1	40,645	*
69		18	21		-	6	1.0		No								0	1	13	46	37	3	32,681	*
68		18	22		-	5	0.4		No									0	8	40	46	5	26,547	*
67		17	22		-	6	0.1		No									0	5	34	53	8	20,447	*
66		17	23		-	5	0.0		No									0	2	26	59	13	15,638	*
65		16	23		-	6	0.0		No									0	1	20	62	17	11,410	*
64		16	24		-	5	0.0		No									0	1	14	62	23	8,241	*
63		15	24		-	6	Out		No										0	9	60	30	5,914	*
62		15	25		-	5	Out		No										0	6	54	39	3,830	*
61		14	25		-	6	Out		No										0	4	51	44	2,617	*
60		14	26		-	5	Out		No											2	46	52	1,701	*
59		13	26		-	6	Out		No											1	39	60	1,074	*
58		13	27		-	5	Out		No											1	30	69	665	*
57		12	27		-	6	Out		No												27	73	430	*
56		12	28		-	5	Out		No												17	83	228	*
55		11	28		-	6	Out		No												15	85	131	*
54		11	29		-	5	Out		No												14	86	88	*
53		11	30		-	4	Out		No												3	97	37	*
52		10	30		-	5	Out		No												5	95	20	*
27	-51						Out		No													100	172	*

Total:							63.9	%	0.2	%	2	8	4	6	8	10	12	14	14	13	8	1	1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	+0.8
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	+0.1
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	-0.1
Calgary 0 Everett 1	-0.1
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	+0.1
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.0
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	+0.8+0.2+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.7
Swift Current vs Calgary	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Seattle vs Saskatoon	-0.1+0.0-0.0*+0.1+0.0+0.0
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

103	-117						100
102		35	5		-	5	95	5
101		35	6		-	4	71	24	5
100		34	6		-	5	71	28	1
99		34	7		-	4	62	34	3	1	1
98		34	8		-	3	58	38	3		0
97		33	8		-	4	40	51	7	1	1	0
96		32	8		-	5	31	54	11	1	2	0
95		32	9		-	4	19	62	14	3	3	1	0
94		31	9		-	5	13	60	17	6	4	1	0
93		31	10		-	4	7	57	18	10	6	2	0
92		30	10		-	5	3	51	19	16	7	3	1	0
91		30	11		-	4	1	41	19	23	8	7	1	0	0
90		29	11		-	5	0	31	16	30	7	12	2	0	0		0
89		29	12		-	4	0	22	13	36	6	17	4	1	1	0	0
88		28	12		-	5	0	13	9	39	4	22	7	4	1	0	0		0
87		28	13		-	4	0	7	6	39	2	24	8	9	4	0	0	0	0
86		27	13		-	5		3	4	35	1	23	7	16	7	2	1	0	0		0
85		26	13		-	6		1	2	29	0	18	5	23	10	6	4	0	0	0	0
84		26	14		-	5		0	1	22	0	12	3	26	11	13	8	1	1	0	0		0
83		25	14		-	6		0	0	15	0	6	1	23	9	23	13	5	4	0	0	0	0
82		25	15		-	5		0	0	9		3	0	16	5	27	15	12	9	1	2	0	0
81		24	15		-	6		0	0	5		1	0	9	2	25	14	20	16	3	5	0	0	0
80		24	16		-	5			0	3		0	0	4	1	17	9	25	20	9	10	0	2	0
79		23	16		-	6				1		0		1	0	10	4	24	19	16	18	2	4	0	0
78		23	17		-	5				0		0		0	0	4	1	17	14	22	24	6	10	1	0
77		22	17		-	6				0				0		1	0	10	7	22	26	11	18	4	0	0
76		22	18		-	5				0		0		0		0	0	4	3	17	22	17	27	9	1	0
75		21	18		-	6				0						0	0	2	1	11	14	19	33	17	3	0	0
74		21	19		-	5				0						0	0	0	0	5	7	17	33	27	8	1	0
73		20	19		-	6												0	0	2	3	13	28	36	15	3	0	0
72		20	20		-	5												0	0	1	1	9	20	38	24	6	1	0
71		19	20		-	6												0		0	0	4	12	35	34	13	2	0
70		19	21		-	5														0	0	2	7	28	38	21	4	0
69		18	21		-	6														0	0	1	3	19	38	30	8	0
68		18	22		-	5																0	1	11	33	38	15	1
67		17	22		-	6																0	1	7	26	41	23	3
66		17	23		-	5																0	0	3	18	42	32	5
65		16	23		-	6																0	0	1	12	39	39	9
64		16	24		-	5																0		0	7	33	46	14
63		15	24		-	6																		0	4	27	50	20
62		15	25		-	5																		0	2	19	50	29
61		14	25		-	6																		0	1	14	49	36
60		14	26		-	5																			0	8	48	44
59		13	26		-	6																			0	5	42	52
58		13	27		-	5																			0	3	34	63
57		12	27		-	6																				2	30	68
56		12	28		-	5																				1	18	81
55		11	28		-	6																					18	82
54		11	29		-	5																					17	83
53		11	30		-	4																					3	97
52		10	30		-	5																					10	90
51		9	30		-	6																					7	93
27	-50																											100

Total:							0	2	1	7	0	3	1	5	2	6	3	7	6	7	8	6	11	10	7	5	3	1