Prince George Cougars Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Lost to Red Deer 1-5, playoff odds down 6.3 to 39.4%

24 points 10 15-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-5.8				-0.2
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	-0.8
Spokane 4 Tri-City 3 (ot)	*-0.4
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	+0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Prince George vs Vancouver	+6.5+4.8+4.2-2.2-2.6-7.2		+0.0-0.0-0.0No*-0.0-0.0		+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Seattle vs Saskatoon	-0.9-0.7-0.6+0.2+0.3+1.0
Tri-City vs Victoria	-0.5-0.7-0.9-0.3-0.3+0.9
Kamloops vs Kelowna	-0.7-0.5-0.5+0.3*+0.4+0.7
Spokane vs Portland	-0.0-0.5-0.1-0.3-0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Prince George finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

110		43	0		-	0	In		Yes		100												147
99		35	3		-	5	In		66.7	%	67	33											3	*
98		36	5		-	2	In		60.0		60	40											5	*
97		35	5		-	3	In		11.1		11	78	11										9	*
96		34	5		-	4	In		20.0		36	44	20										25	*
95		34	6		-	3	In		31.9		40	43	15	2									47	*
94		33	6		-	4	In		20.7		25	45	25	5									87	*
93		33	7		-	3	In		9.2		21	44	26	9									152	*
92		32	7		-	4	In		4.9		9	45	31	15	1								309	*
91		31	7		-	5	In		1.4		4	44	31	19	2								562	*
90		31	8		-	4	In		0.3		2	36	28	27	6	0							1,052	*
89		30	8		-	5	In		0.2		1	28	24	34	13	1							1,663	*
88		30	9		-	4	In		0.0		0	24	16	35	21	3	0						2,767	*
87		29	9		-	5	In		No		0	17	10	34	30	9	1						4,321	*
86		29	10		-	4	In		No			12	5	28	38	15	2	0					6,558	*
85		28	10		-	5	In		No			8	2	20	40	24	5	0					9,349	*
84		28	11		-	4	100.0	%	No			5	1	12	36	34	11	1	0				13,393	*
83		27	11		-	5	99.9		No			3	0	6	29	39	19	3	0				18,241	*
82		27	12		-	4	99.6		No			2	0	3	19	41	29	7	0				24,080	*
81		26	12		-	5	98.7		No			1	0	1	12	36	37	13	1	0			31,123	*
80		26	13		-	4	96.9		No			0	0	0	6	27	42	21	3	0			38,919	*
79		25	13		-	5	93.3		No			0		0	3	18	41	31	7	0			47,170	*
78		25	14		-	4	87.6		No			0		0	1	11	36	39	12	0			55,416	*
77		24	14		-	5	79.7		No			0		0	0	6	29	44	20	1			63,903	*
76		24	15		-	4	70.0		No			0		0	0	3	21	46	29	1			71,049	*
75		23	15		-	5	58.5		No						0	1	14	43	39	3			77,696	*
74		23	16		-	4	47.3		No						0	1	8	39	48	5			82,035	*
73		22	16		-	5	35.8		No						0	0	5	31	56	8			84,463	*
72		22	17		-	4	25.6		No						0	0	2	23	62	13			84,758	*
71		21	17		-	5	17.7		No							0	1	17	63	19			82,593	*
70		21	18		-	4	11.7		No							0	0	11	63	26			79,094	*
69		20	18		-	5	7.2		No							0	0	7	59	34			73,279	*
68		20	19		-	4	4.3		No								0	4	55	41			66,586	*
67		19	19		-	5	2.4		No								0	2	48	50			58,839	*
66		19	20		-	4	1.2		No								0	1	41	58			50,153	*
65		18	20		-	5	0.7		No								0	1	34	65			42,035	*
64		18	21		-	4	0.3		No									0	28	72			34,291	*
63		17	21		-	5	0.2		No									0	22	78			27,213	*
62		17	22		-	4	0.1		No									0	17	83			20,779	*
61		16	22		-	5	0.0		No									0	13	87			15,937	*
60		16	23		-	4	Out		No										9	91			11,667	*
59		15	23		-	5	0.0		No									0	6	94			8,368	*
58		15	24		-	4	Out		No										5	95			5,678	*
57		14	24		-	5	Out		No										3	97			3,788	*
56		14	25		-	4	Out		No										2	98			2,603	*
55		13	25		-	5	Out		No										2	98			1,711	*
54		13	26		-	4	Out		No										1	99			969	*
53		12	26		-	5	Out		No										0	100			613	*
52		12	27		-	4	Out		No										0	100			393	*
24	-51						Out		No											100			577	*

Total:							39.4	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	1	2	5	11	20	37	24			1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.6
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Prince George vs Vancouver	-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.2+0.6

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

110		43	0		-	0	100
99		35	3		-	5	67		33
98		36	5		-	2	60		40
97		35	5		-	3	11		78		11
96		34	5		-	4	20	16	44		20
95		34	6		-	3	32	9	43		15		2
94		33	6		-	4	21	5	44	1	24	1	5
93		33	7		-	3	9	12	43	1	26	1	9
92		32	7		-	4	5	4	42	3	30	1	15		1
91		31	7		-	5	1	2	36	7	28	3	19		2
90		31	8		-	4	0	2	29	8	23	5	27	0	6		0
89		30	8		-	5	0	0	20	8	17	7	33	1	13		1
88		30	9		-	4	0	0	14	10	9	7	33	2	21	0	3		0
87		29	9		-	5		0	8	9	4	6	29	5	30	0	9	0	1
86		29	10		-	4			4	8	1	4	21	7	37	1	15	0	2		0
85		28	10		-	5			2	6	0	2	11	9	36	4	24	0	5		0
84		28	11		-	4			1	4	0	1	5	7	28	8	33	1	11	0	1		0
83		27	11		-	5			0	3		0	2	5	18	11	36	4	19	0	3		0
82		27	12		-	4			0	2		0	0	3	8	11	32	9	28	1	7	0	0
81		26	12		-	5			0	1		0	0	1	3	9	22	14	33	4	12	0	1	0
80		26	13		-	4			0	0		0	0	0	1	5	11	16	32	10	20	1	3	0
79		25	13		-	5				0				0	0	3	4	14	24	17	27	4	7	0	0	0
78		25	14		-	4				0				0	0	1	1	10	14	22	30	9	12	1	0
77		24	14		-	5				0				0		0	0	6	6	23	26	18	18	2	0	0
76		24	15		-	4				0				0		0	0	3	2	19	18	28	23	6	1	0
75		23	15		-	5										0	0	1	1	13	10	33	25	13	4	0	0
74		23	16		-	4										0		1	0	8	5	34	22	20	9	1	0
73		22	16		-	5										0		0	0	5	2	29	17	26	17	4	0	0
72		22	17		-	4										0		0	0	2	0	23	11	27	26	9	1	0
71		21	17		-	5												0		1	0	17	6	23	33	17	3	0
70		21	18		-	4												0		0	0	11	3	17	36	26	6	0
69		20	18		-	5												0		0	0	7	1	11	33	35	11	1
68		20	19		-	4														0	0	4	1	6	28	41	19	2
67		19	19		-	5														0		2	0	3	21	42	27	3
66		19	20		-	4														0		1	0	2	14	40	36	6
65		18	20		-	5														0		1	0	1	9	36	43	10
64		18	21		-	4																0		0	5	29	49	16
63		17	21		-	5																0		0	3	22	52	22
62		17	22		-	4																0		0	2	16	52	30
61		16	22		-	5																0		0	1	11	50	38
60		16	23		-	4																			0	7	46	47
59		15	23		-	5																0			0	4	41	55
58		15	24		-	4																			0	2	35	63
57		14	24		-	5																				1	28	71
56		14	25		-	4																				1	22	77
55		13	25		-	5																				0	18	81
54		13	26		-	4																				0	14	86
53		12	26		-	5																					12	88
52		12	27		-	4																					7	93
51		11	27		-	5																					8	92
50		10	27		-	6																					6	94
49		10	28		-	5																					3	97
47	-48																											100
46		8	29		-	6																					13	88
24	-45																											100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	3	3	5	6	7	13	8	10	13	14	11	4