Tri-City Americans Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Lost to Spokane 3-4 (ot), playoff odds up 0.9 to 88.2%

31 points 14 11-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+1.1
Victoria 5 Kamloops 0	+0.5
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	*-0.4
Spokane 4 Tri-City 3 (ot)			-0.2		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Tri-City vs Victoria	+2.6+2.2+2.2-0.4-0.7-3.2		+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.3		+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Prince George vs Vancouver	-0.3-0.9-0.8*-0.3-0.4+0.6
Kamloops vs Kelowna	-0.4-0.4-0.5+0.0+0.1+0.5		+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Saskatoon	-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.3				-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tri-City finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

106	-119						In		Yes		100												157	*
105		36	6		-	2	In		77.8	%	89	11											9	*
104		35	6		-	3	In		86.8		92	8											38	*
103		34	6		-	4	In		93.9		94	5	2										66	*
102		34	7		-	3	In		86.7		89	4	7										90	*
101		33	7		-	4	In		83.0		86	6	7										235	*
100		33	8		-	3	In		81.5		86	7	7										367	*
99		32	8		-	4	In		70.7		76	11	13										702	*
98		31	8		-	5	In		60.5		68	13	19	0									1,292	*
97		31	9		-	4	In		51.5		60	15	23	1									1,983	*
96		30	9		-	5	In		40.1		50	17	32	2									3,139	*
95		30	10		-	4	In		28.9		39	19	38	4	0								4,819	*
94		29	10		-	5	In		18.0		29	19	45	8	0								7,159	*
93		29	11		-	4	In		10.4		20	18	49	13	1								10,058	*
92		28	11		-	5	In		4.8		12	15	52	20	2	0							14,362	*
91		28	12		-	4	In		1.9		6	12	50	29	3	0							19,053	*
90		27	12		-	5	In		0.6		3	8	43	38	7	0							25,408	*
89		27	13		-	4	In		0.2		1	5	34	45	14	1	0						32,220	*
88		26	13		-	5	In		0.0		0	3	24	47	23	3	0						40,119	*
87		26	14		-	4	In		0.0		0	1	14	44	32	7	0	0					48,268	*
86		25	14		-	5	In		No		0	1	8	37	40	13	1	0					56,180	*
85		25	15		-	4	In		No			0	4	27	44	22	3	0					63,947	*
84		24	15		-	5	In		No			0	1	16	42	32	7	0					71,177	*
83		23	15		-	6	100.0	%	No			0	0	9	35	40	14	1	0				77,218	*
82		23	16		-	5	99.9		No			0	0	4	25	44	23	3	0				81,844	*
81		22	16		-	6	99.8		No				0	2	17	42	33	7	0				83,998	*
80		22	17		-	5	99.4		No				0	1	9	37	40	13	1	0			84,046	*
79		21	17		-	6	98.3		No				0	0	5	28	45	21	2	0			81,862	*
78		21	18		-	5	96.3		No					0	2	19	46	29	4	0			77,775	*
77		20	18		-	6	93.0		No					0	1	12	42	38	7	0			72,326	*
76		20	19		-	5	87.8		No					0	0	7	35	46	12	0			64,795	*
75		19	19		-	6	80.3		No						0	4	27	50	19	1			57,150	*
74		19	20		-	5	71.3		No						0	2	19	50	27	2			49,101	*
73		18	20		-	6	60.5		No						0	1	12	47	36	4			41,387	*
72		18	21		-	5	50.1		No						0	0	8	42	43	7			33,619	*
71		17	21		-	6	38.6		No							0	4	34	51	11			26,836	*
70		17	22		-	5	29.6		No							0	2	27	55	16			20,790	*
69		16	22		-	6	20.6		No								1	20	56	23			15,929	*
68		16	23		-	5	14.4		No								1	14	56	30			11,752	*
67		15	23		-	6	9.7		No								0	9	52	38			8,284	*
66		15	24		-	5	5.8		No								0	6	48	46			5,887	*
65		15	25		-	4	3.6		No								0	4	41	55			3,985	*
64		14	25		-	5	2.2		No									2	34	64			2,609	*
63		14	26		-	4	1.5		No									1	29	69			1,739	*
62		13	26		-	5	0.3		No									0	24	76			1,063	*
61		13	27		-	4	0.2		No									0	20	80			599	*
60		12	27		-	5	Out		No										15	85			370	*
59		12	28		-	4	Out		No										7	93			217	*
58		11	28		-	5	Out		No										11	89			142	*
57		11	29		-	4	Out		No										3	97			75	*
56		10	29		-	5	Out		No										7	93			44	*
31	-55						Out		No											100			178	*

Total:							88.2	%	0.7	%	1	1	6	10	14	18	20	17	9	2			1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Spokane 4 Tri-City 3 (ot)	+0.1
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	+0.1
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.1
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tri-City vs Victoria	-0.6-0.5-0.5+0.2+0.2+0.7
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.0-0.1
Prince George vs Vancouver	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Spokane vs Portland	+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

106	-119						100
105		36	6		-	2	78	11	11
104		35	6		-	3	87	5	8
103		34	6		-	4	94		5		2
102		34	7		-	3	87	2	4		7
101		33	7		-	4	83	3	6		7
100		33	8		-	3	81	5	7		7
99		32	8		-	4	71	5	11		13
98		31	8		-	5	61	7	13		19		0
97		31	9		-	4	52	8	15	0	23	0	1
96		30	9		-	5	40	10	17	0	32	0	2
95		30	10		-	4	29	10	18	0	38	0	4		0
94		29	10		-	5	18	11	19	0	44	1	8		0
93		29	11		-	4	10	9	17	1	47	2	13		1
92		28	11		-	5	5	7	14	1	49	3	20	0	2		0
91		28	12		-	4	2	4	10	1	44	5	29	0	3		0
90		27	12		-	5	1	2	7	2	35	8	38	0	7	0	0
89		27	13		-	4	0	1	4	1	24	10	43	1	14	0	1		0
88		26	13		-	5	0	0	2	1	14	10	44	3	23	0	3		0
87		26	14		-	4	0	0	1	1	7	8	38	6	32	1	7	0	0		0
86		25	14		-	5		0	0	0	2	5	27	10	39	2	13	0	1		0
85		25	15		-	4			0	0	1	3	15	11	40	4	22	0	3	0	0
84		24	15		-	5			0	0	0	1	7	10	33	9	31	1	7	0	0
83		23	15		-	6			0	0	0	0	2	7	22	13	37	4	14	0	1		0
82		23	16		-	5				0	0	0	0	4	11	15	35	9	22	1	3	0	0
81		22	16		-	6						0	0	2	4	13	26	16	29	3	7	0	0
80		22	17		-	5						0	0	1	1	8	15	21	31	9	12	0	1	0
79		21	17		-	6						0		0	0	5	6	21	27	18	19	2	2	0
78		21	18		-	5								0	0	2	2	17	18	27	23	6	4	0	0
77		20	18		-	6								0	0	1	1	12	10	32	23	15	6	1	0	0
76		20	19		-	5								0		0	0	7	4	31	19	26	10	2	0	0
75		19	19		-	6										0	0	4	1	25	13	37	12	6	2	0
74		19	20		-	5										0		2	0	19	7	43	13	11	4	1	0
73		18	20		-	6										0		1	0	12	3	44	12	16	9	2	0
72		18	21		-	5										0		0	0	8	1	41	9	19	16	5	0	0
71		17	21		-	6												0	0	4	0	34	6	19	25	11	1	0
70		17	22		-	5												0		2	0	27	3	15	30	18	3	0
69		16	22		-	6														1	0	20	1	11	31	28	8	0
68		16	23		-	5														1		14	1	7	28	35	13	1
67		15	23		-	6														0		9	0	4	23	40	21	2
66		15	24		-	5														0		6	0	2	17	40	30	4
65		15	25		-	4														0		4	0	1	11	37	38	8
64		14	25		-	5																2		0	7	33	45	12
63		14	26		-	4																1		0	4	27	49	19
62		13	26		-	5																0		0	3	19	49	29
61		13	27		-	4																0			2	18	49	31
60		12	27		-	5																			1	12	46	41
59		12	28		-	4																				5	41	53
58		11	28		-	5																				4	43	54
57		11	29		-	4																					35	65
56		10	29		-	5																					39	61
55		11	31		-	2																					18	82
54		10	31		-	3																					33	67
31	-53																											100

Total:							1	0	1	0	4	2	8	3	10	4	11	7	10	9	7	10	3	3	3	2	1	0