Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Medicine Hat Tigers Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Beat Regina 5-1, playoff odds up 0.9 to 97.8%

37 points 17 6-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+1.0		+2.0		+0.3
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.1
Calgary 0 Everett 1			-0.4		+0.1
Spokane 4 Tri-City 3 (ot)			*+0.1
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)			*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.8+0.7+0.7-0.0-0.1-1.0		+2.1+2.1+1.7-0.7-0.6-2.6		+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.3
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.0-0.2-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.1+0.1-0.0*-0.1-0.1-0.1
Lethbridge vs Edmonton					+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Kamloops vs Kelowna			+0.6+0.2-0.0*-0.3-0.3-0.5
Spokane vs Portland			+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.3*-0.3-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Medicine Hat finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

106	-129						In		97.7	%	100												4,032	*
105		32	10		-	4	In		94.4		100	0	0										2,605	*
104		31	10		-	5	In		92.2		100	0	0										3,964	*
103		31	11		-	4	In		88.5		100	0	0										5,944	*
102		30	11		-	5	In		84.3		100	0	0										8,560	*
101		30	12		-	4	In		77.8		99	0	0										12,036	*
100		29	12		-	5	In		70.2		99	1	1										16,241	*
99		29	13		-	4	In		61.5		98	1	1										21,680	*
98		28	13		-	5	In		51.1		97	2	2	0									27,878	*
97		27	13		-	6	In		40.6		95	3	3										34,740	*
96		27	14		-	5	In		30.4		92	4	5	0									42,254	*
95		26	14		-	6	In		20.9		88	6	6	0									50,364	*
94		26	15		-	5	In		13.1		81	9	10	0									57,870	*
93		25	15		-	6	In		7.0		73	12	14	1	0								65,439	*
92		25	16		-	5	In		3.3		65	15	19	1	0								72,148	*
91		24	16		-	6	In		1.2		53	19	25	2	0								77,012	*
90		24	17		-	5	In		0.4		41	22	32	5	0	0							80,352	*
89		23	17		-	6	In		0.1		30	25	36	8	1	0							82,057	*
88		23	18		-	5	In		0.0		19	25	40	14	1	0	0						81,936	*
87		22	18		-	6	In		0.0		11	23	40	22	4	0	0						78,986	*
86		22	19		-	5	In		No		5	20	36	30	8	1	0	0					75,556	*
85		21	19		-	6	In		No		2	15	29	35	16	3	0						35,783	*
		22	20		-	4	In		No		2	15	29	35	16	3	0	0					33,914	*
84		21	20		-	5	100.0	%	No		1	10	19	37	25	7	1	0	0				62,460	*
83		20	20		-	6	100.0		No		0	6	11	32	33	15	3	0	0				54,788	*
82		20	21		-	5	100.0		No		0	3	5	22	36	25	8	1	0				47,335	*
81		19	21		-	6	99.7		No		0	2	2	13	31	33	16	4	0		0		39,549	*
80		19	22		-	5	98.8		No			1	1	6	22	35	26	9	1	0			32,495	*
79		18	22		-	6	96.4		No			0	0	2	12	30	34	18	3	0			26,043	*
78		18	23		-	5	90.3		No			0		1	5	20	37	27	9	1	0		20,256	*
77		17	23		-	6	80.6		No			0		0	2	11	30	37	17	3	0		15,308	*
76		17	24		-	5	64.7		No			0		0	1	5	21	38	28	7	0		11,554	*
75		16	24		-	6	49.3		No						0	2	13	34	35	14	1	0	8,300	*
74		16	25		-	5	32.1		No						0	1	6	26	42	23	3	0	5,659	*
73		15	25		-	6	18.8		No							0	2	16	40	33	7	0	3,956	*
72		15	26		-	5	10.6		No							0	1	10	36	42	12	1	2,759	*
71		14	26		-	6	6.0		No								1	5	28	45	20	1	1,772	*
70		14	27		-	5	1.9		No									2	20	48	28	2	1,074	*
69		14	28		-	4	Out		No										13	46	36	5	675	*
68		13	28		-	5	0.2		No									0	5	41	46	8	415	*
67		13	29		-	4	Out		No										4	30	55	11	256	*
66		12	29		-	5	Out		No										2	21	58	19	150	*
65		12	30		-	4	Out		No										1	19	44	35	88	*
64		12	31		-	3	Out		No											8	58	34	38	*
63		11	31		-	4	Out		No											5	45	50	20	*
62		11	32		-	3	Out		No												50	50	10	*
61		10	32		-	4	Out		No												20	80	5	*
60		9	32		-	5	Out		No												100		1
59		10	34		-	2	Out		No												50	50	2	*
37	-58						Out		No													100	149	*

Total:							97.8	%	9.5	%	37	12	19	11	7	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	-0.6
Calgary 0 Everett 1	-0.1
Seattle 5 Portland 4 (ot)	+0.1
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	+0.0
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.0
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.7
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Swift Current vs Calgary	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

112	-129						100
111		35	7		-	4	98	2
110		35	8		-	3	99	1
109		34	8		-	4	99	1
108		33	8		-	5	99	1
107		33	9		-	4	98	2
106		32	9		-	5	96	4
105		32	10		-	4	94	5	0		0
104		31	10		-	5	92	8	0		0
103		31	11		-	4	88	11	0		0
102		30	11		-	5	84	15	0		0
101		30	12		-	4	78	21	0		0
100		29	12		-	5	70	29	1	0	1	0
99		29	13		-	4	61	37	1	0	1	0
98		28	13		-	5	51	46	2	0	2	0	0
97		27	13		-	6	41	54	2	0	3	0
96		27	14		-	5	30	61	3	0	4	0	0
95		26	14		-	6	21	67	5	1	6	1	0	0
94		26	15		-	5	13	68	6	2	8	2	0	0
93		25	15		-	6	7	66	8	4	10	4	0	0	0
92		25	16		-	5	3	61	8	7	12	7	1	0	0
91		24	16		-	6	1	52	8	11	12	13	2	0	0	0
90		24	17		-	5	0	41	8	15	11	20	4	1	0		0
89		23	17		-	6	0	30	6	19	9	28	6	2	1	0	0
88		23	18		-	5	0	19	4	21	6	34	8	6	1	0	0		0
87		22	18		-	6	0	11	3	20	3	37	10	12	3	1	0		0
86		22	19		-	5		5	1	18	1	35	9	21	6	2	1	0	0		0
85		21	19		-	6		2	1	14	0	28	6	29	9	6	3	0	0		0
84		21	20		-	5		1	0	10	0	19	3	34	11	14	6	1	1	0	0		0
83		20	20		-	6		0	0	6	0	11	1	31	9	24	11	4	3	0	0		0
82		20	21		-	5		0	0	3		5	0	22	5	30	14	11	7	1	1	0	0
81		19	21		-	6		0	0	2		2	0	13	2	29	13	20	13	3	4	0	0	0	0
80		19	22		-	5			0	1		1		6	1	21	8	27	18	9	8	1	1	0	0
79		18	22		-	6				0		0		2	0	12	4	26	18	17	16	2	3	0	0
78		18	23		-	5				0				1	0	5	1	19	13	23	22	6	9	1	0
77		17	23		-	6				0				0	0	2	0	11	7	23	25	12	16	3	0
76		17	24		-	5				0				0		1	0	5	3	18	20	17	26	9	1	0
75		16	24		-	6										0	0	2	1	12	13	21	30	17	3	0
74		16	25		-	5										0		1	0	6	7	19	31	28	8	1	0
73		15	25		-	6												0		2	3	13	27	34	16	3	0	0
72		15	26		-	5												0		1	1	8	19	38	24	8	0	0
71		14	26		-	6														1	0	5	11	32	35	13	3	0
70		14	27		-	5																2	6	25	38	22	6
69		14	28		-	4																	3	18	36	34	8	1
68		13	28		-	5																0	1	11	30	40	17	1
67		13	29		-	4																		6	21	43	25	4
66		12	29		-	5																		2	21	32	34	11
65		12	30		-	4																		2	15	27	33	23
64		12	31		-	3																			8	18	61	13
63		11	31		-	4																				10	50	40
62		11	32		-	3																				10	60	30
61		10	32		-	4																					20	80
60		9	32		-	5																					100
59		10	34		-	2																					50	50
37	-58																											100

Total:							10	28	3	9	5	14	3	8	2	5	2	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0