Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Kootenay Ice Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Beat Brandon 5-2, playoff odds up 3.9 to 83.9%

32 points 15 11-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	+4.2		+0.3		+0.4
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	-0.6				-0.0
Medicine Hat 5 Regina 1	+0.4
Calgary 0 Everett 1	+0.3		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Scotty Munro Memorial Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle vs Saskatoon	+0.7-0.1+0.3*-0.3-0.6-0.6
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	+0.5-0.0+0.1-0.4-0.6-0.4		-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1
Moose Jaw vs Brandon	+0.3-0.3-0.0-0.4-0.3-0.1
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.2-0.2-0.4+0.0-0.0+0.3
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	+0.3+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.2				+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Kamloops vs Kelowna			+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Kootenay finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Scotty Munro		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Memorial Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

103	-120						In		94.0	%	100												381	*
102		33	7		-	4	In		81.7		99		1										219	*
101		33	8		-	3	In		81.1		99	0	1										418	*
100		32	8		-	4	In		74.1		97	1	2										714	*
99		31	8		-	5	In		62.7		97	1	2										1,290	*
98		31	9		-	4	In		53.6		94	1	5	0									2,057	*
97		30	9		-	5	In		40.6		91	2	7	0									3,131	*
96		30	10		-	4	In		30.0		87	3	10	0									4,803	*
95		29	10		-	5	In		21.2		81	5	14	0									7,057	*
94		29	11		-	4	In		13.3		73	7	19	1									10,122	*
93		28	11		-	5	In		7.0		63	9	26	2	0								14,284	*
92		28	12		-	4	In		3.1		54	11	32	3	0								19,275	*
91		27	12		-	5	In		1.2		43	13	39	5	0								25,435	*
90		27	13		-	4	In		0.4		31	15	43	9	1	0							32,110	*
89		26	13		-	5	In		0.1		21	16	47	15	1	0							39,680	*
88		26	14		-	4	In		0.0		13	15	47	22	3	0							48,150	*
87		25	14		-	5	In		No		7	13	43	30	7	0	0						56,565	*
86		25	15		-	4	In		No		3	10	36	38	12	2	0						64,596	*
85		24	15		-	5	In		No		1	7	26	41	21	4	0	0					71,871	*
84		23	15		-	6	100.0	%	No		0	4	16	39	30	9	1	0	0				77,588	*
83		23	16		-	5	100.0		No		0	2	9	31	37	17	4	0	0				81,077	*
82		22	16		-	6	99.9		No		0	1	4	21	37	27	9	1	0				84,015	*
81		22	17		-	5	99.8		No			1	2	12	32	34	16	3	0	0			51,325	*
		21	16		-	7	99.7		No			0	1	10	29	36	19	4	0	0			32,247	*
80		21	17		-	6	98.9		No			0	0	5	21	36	27	9	1	0			81,964	*
79		21	18		-	5	96.6		No			0	0	2	12	31	35	17	3	0	0		77,973	*
78		20	18		-	6	91.2		No			0	0	1	5	21	37	27	8	1	0		71,841	*
77		20	19		-	5	81.6		No			0	0	0	2	12	32	35	16	2	0		65,080	*
76		19	19		-	6	68.2		No			0		0	1	6	23	39	25	6	0		57,250	*
75		19	20		-	5	51.8		No					0	0	2	14	35	35	12	1	0	49,367	*
74		18	20		-	6	36.0		No						0	1	7	28	41	20	3	0	41,270	*
73		18	21		-	5	22.9		No							0	3	19	42	30	6	0	33,451	*
72		17	21		-	6	13.6		No						0	0	1	12	36	39	11	0	26,676	*
71		17	22		-	5	7.1		No							0	0	7	29	45	18	1	20,680	*
70		16	22		-	6	3.1		No							0	0	3	22	47	27	2	15,836	*
69		16	23		-	5	1.5		No								0	1	15	45	35	3	11,561	*
68		15	23		-	6	0.6		No								0	1	9	41	44	6	8,278	*
67		15	24		-	5	0.1		No									0	5	34	52	9	5,842	*
66		15	25		-	4	0.0		No									0	3	25	57	15	3,949	*
65		14	25		-	5	Out		No										1	20	58	21	2,546	*
64		14	26		-	4	Out		No										1	13	58	28	1,790	*
63		13	26		-	5	Out		No										0	10	55	34	1,057	*
62		13	27		-	4	Out		No											5	51	44	667	*
61		12	27		-	5	Out		No										0	3	41	56	395	*
60		12	28		-	4	Out		No											2	41	57	194	*
59		11	28		-	5	Out		No											2	35	63	127	*
58		10	28		-	6	Out		No											2	25	73	64	*
57		11	30		-	3	Out		No												40	60	25	*
56		9	29		-	6	Out		No												12	88	17	*
32	-55						Out		No													100	158	*

Total:							83.9	%	0.8	%	7	4	13	14	13	12	11	10	8	5	2	0	1,306,468

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kootenay 5 Brandon 2	-0.7
Moose Jaw 4 Swift Current 5 (ot)	+0.1
Calgary 0 Everett 1	-0.1
Red Deer 5 Prince George 1	+0.1
Prince Albert 8 Lethbridge 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lethbridge vs Edmonton	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Medicine Hat vs Red Deer	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Swift Current vs Calgary	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0
Regina vs Prince Albert	-0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

107	-120						100
106		35	5		-	4	94	6
105		36	7		-	1	96	4
104		34	6		-	4	91	9
103		33	6		-	5	87	13
102		33	7		-	4	82	17			1
101		33	8		-	3	81	18	0		1
100		32	8		-	4	74	23	1		2
99		31	8		-	5	63	34	1		2
98		31	9		-	4	54	40	1		5	0	0
97		30	9		-	5	41	50	2	0	7	0	0
96		30	10		-	4	30	57	3	0	10	1	0
95		29	10		-	5	21	60	4	1	13	2	0
94		29	11		-	4	13	60	5	2	16	3	1
93		28	11		-	5	7	56	6	3	19	7	1	0	0
92		28	12		-	4	3	51	6	5	20	11	3	0	0
91		27	12		-	5	1	41	6	7	20	19	5	0	0
90		27	13		-	4	0	31	5	10	17	27	8	1	1	0	0
89		26	13		-	5	0	21	4	12	12	35	11	4	1	0	0
88		26	14		-	4	0	13	3	13	7	39	14	8	3	0	0	0
87		25	14		-	5		7	1	11	3	39	14	16	6	1	0	0	0
86		25	15		-	4		3	1	9	1	34	12	26	9	3	2	0	0	0
85		24	15		-	5		1	0	6	0	26	7	33	13	8	4	0	0		0
84		23	15		-	6		0	0	4	0	16	4	35	13	17	8	1	1	0	0		0
83		23	16		-	5		0	0	2	0	9	1	30	11	26	13	5	3	0	0		0
82		22	16		-	6		0	0	1		4	0	21	6	31	16	12	8	1	1	0	0
81		22	17		-	5			0	0		1	0	11	2	28	14	21	14	3	4	0	0	0
80		21	17		-	6				0		0	0	5	1	21	9	27	19	9	8	0	1	0
79		21	18		-	5			0	0		0		2	0	12	4	26	19	16	15	2	3	0	0
78		20	18		-	6				0		0		1	0	5	2	20	14	23	22	5	8	1	0
77		20	19		-	5				0		0		0	0	2	0	12	8	24	24	11	15	3	0	0
76		19	19		-	6				0				0		1	0	6	3	20	21	18	24	7	1	0
75		19	20		-	5								0		0	0	2	1	13	14	21	31	15	2	0	0
74		18	20		-	6										0		1	0	7	8	20	32	24	7	1	0
73		18	21		-	5												0	0	3	3	16	28	33	14	2	0	0
72		17	21		-	6										0		0	0	1	1	11	20	37	23	6	1	0
71		17	22		-	5												0		0	0	6	13	34	31	12	2	0
70		16	22		-	6												0		0	0	3	7	28	37	21	4	0
69		16	23		-	5														0	0	1	4	19	38	29	9	1
68		15	23		-	6														0		1	1	11	33	37	15	1
67		15	24		-	5																0	0	7	26	42	22	3
66		15	25		-	4																0	0	3	18	40	32	7
65		14	25		-	5																	0	1	11	37	40	11
64		14	26		-	4																	0	0	7	30	46	17
63		13	26		-	5																		0	4	24	49	24
62		13	27		-	4																			1	16	49	34
61		12	27		-	5																			1	10	46	43
60		12	28		-	4																				10	44	46
59		11	28		-	5																			2	8	33	57
58		10	28		-	6																				5	30	66
57		11	30		-	3																					44	56
56		9	29		-	6																					18	82
32	-55																											100

Total:							1	6	1	3	2	11	3	11	4	9	4	8	5	6	6	4	6	5	3	2	1	0