Erie Otters Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.001 to 99.9%

41 points 20 4-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Windsor 1 Plymouth 2	+0.2
Oshawa 3 Barrie 5	+1.1
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0	-1.1		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	-0.8-0.7-0.6+0.1+0.2+0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Erie finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

109	-127						In		Yes		100										1,108	*
108		31	7		-	5	In		99.9	%	100	0									782	*
107		31	8		-	4	In		Yes		100										1,359	*
106		30	8		-	5	In		99.8		100		0								2,330	*
105		30	9		-	4	In		99.9		100	0	0								3,727	*
104		29	9		-	5	In		99.5		100	0	0								5,684	*
103		29	10		-	4	In		99.3		99	0	0								8,442	*
102		28	10		-	5	In		98.7		99	0	1								12,238	*
101		28	11		-	4	In		97.7		98	0	1								17,407	*
100		27	11		-	5	In		96.4		97	1	2	0							23,706	*
99		27	12		-	4	In		94.2		95	1	3	0							31,535	*
98		26	12		-	5	In		90.8		93	2	5	0							40,813	*
97		26	13		-	4	In		86.6		90	3	8	0							50,652	*
96		25	13		-	5	In		80.8		85	4	11	0							61,777	*
95		25	14		-	4	In		73.6		79	5	15	0							73,121	*
94		24	14		-	5	In		64.8		72	7	20	1							83,760	*
93		24	15		-	4	In		54.7		63	10	26	2							93,313	*
92		23	15		-	5	In		43.7		53	12	32	3	0						100,900	*
91		23	16		-	4	In		33.9		44	14	37	5	0						55,814	*
		22	15		-	6	In		31.3		41	14	39	6	0						51,215	*
90		22	16		-	5	In		22.8		33	15	44	8	0	0					111,414	*
89		22	17		-	4	In		14.5		23	16	48	13	0						110,945	*
88		21	17		-	5	In		8.2		15	15	50	19	1	0					108,581	*
87		20	17		-	6	In		4.1		9	14	49	26	1	0					103,040	*
86		20	18		-	5	In		1.6		5	12	45	35	3	0	0				95,607	*
85		20	19		-	4	In		0.6		3	9	39	42	7	0	0				86,542	*
84		19	19		-	5	In		0.2		1	6	31	48	13	1	0				76,622	*
83		19	20		-	4	In		0.0		0	4	22	50	20	3	0				65,993	*
82		18	20		-	5	In		0.0		0	2	14	47	30	6	0	0			54,529	*
81		18	21		-	4	In		No		0	1	8	40	38	11	1	0			44,359	*
80		17	21		-	5	In		No		0	1	4	30	43	19	3	0			35,405	*
79		17	22		-	4	100.0	%	No			0	2	21	42	29	6	0	0		27,632	*
78		16	22		-	5	100.0		No			0	1	12	38	37	12	1	0		20,705	*
77		16	23		-	4	99.9		No			0	0	6	30	42	19	2	0		15,094	*
76		15	23		-	5	99.8		No			0	0	3	20	43	29	5	0		10,650	*
75		15	24		-	4	99.2		No			0	0	1	12	38	38	10	1	0	7,477	*
74		14	24		-	5	98.1		No				0	0	7	31	42	18	2	0	5,201	*
73		14	25		-	4	95.5		No					0	3	23	44	26	4	0	3,387	*
72		13	25		-	5	91.0		No					0	1	15	40	35	9	0	2,174	*
71		13	26		-	4	83.3		No						0	9	31	43	15	1	1,345	*
70		12	26		-	5	73.7		No						0	4	26	43	24	3	816	*
69		12	27		-	4	62.0		No							1	16	44	32	6	479	*
68		11	27		-	5	47.2		No							1	11	35	42	11	265	*
67		11	28		-	4	31.4		No								4	27	50	18	169	*
66		10	28		-	5	27.5		No								3	25	43	30	80	*
65		10	29		-	4	17.5		No								3	15	53	30	40	*
64		10	30		-	3	23.5		No								6	18	35	41	17	*
63		9	30		-	4	Out		No										60	40	5	*
62		9	31		-	3	Out		No										38	63	8	*
41	-61						Out		No											100	216	*

Total:							99.9	%	31.1	%	36	9	28	17	6	3	1	0	0	0	1,708,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0	+0.1

Wednesday	None

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

109	-127						100
108		31	7		-	5	100		0
107		31	8		-	4	100
106		30	8		-	5	100				0
105		30	9		-	4	100	0	0		0
104		29	9		-	5	100	0	0		0
103		29	10		-	4	99	0	0		0
102		28	10		-	5	99	0	0		1
101		28	11		-	4	98	1	0		1
100		27	11		-	5	96	1	1		2		0
99		27	12		-	4	94	1	1		3		0
98		26	12		-	5	91	2	2		5		0
97		26	13		-	4	87	3	3		8		0
96		25	13		-	5	81	4	4	0	11		0
95		25	14		-	4	74	5	5	0	15		0
94		24	14		-	5	65	7	7	0	20	0	1
93		24	15		-	4	55	8	10	0	26	0	2
92		23	15		-	5	44	9	12	0	32	0	3		0
91		23	16		-	4	33	10	14	0	38	0	5		0
90		22	16		-	5	23	10	15	0	43	0	8		0		0
89		22	17		-	4	15	9	16	0	47	0	13		0
88		21	17		-	5	8	7	15	1	49	0	19		1		0
87		20	17		-	6	4	5	13	1	48	1	26		1		0
86		20	18		-	5	2	3	11	1	43	1	35	0	3		0		0
85		20	19		-	4	1	2	8	1	36	2	42	0	7		0		0
84		19	19		-	5	0	1	5	2	28	3	47	0	13		1		0
83		19	20		-	4	0	0	3	1	18	4	50	0	20	0	3		0
82		18	20		-	5	0	0	1	1	10	4	46	1	30	0	6		0		0
81		18	21		-	4		0	1	1	5	3	38	1	38	0	11		1		0
80		17	21		-	5		0	0	1	2	2	27	3	43	0	19		3		0
79		17	22		-	4			0	0	1	1	17	4	41	1	29	0	6		0		0
78		16	22		-	5			0	0	0	1	8	4	36	2	37	0	12		1		0
77		16	23		-	4			0	0	0	0	3	3	26	4	41	1	19	0	2		0
76		15	23		-	5				0		0	1	2	15	5	41	1	29	0	5		0
75		15	24		-	4				0		0	0	1	7	5	34	3	37	0	10		1	0
74		14	24		-	5						0		0	2	5	24	7	41	1	18		2	0
73		14	25		-	4							0	0	1	2	14	8	41	3	26	0	4	0
72		13	25		-	5								0	0	1	7	8	34	7	34	1	9	0
71		13	26		-	4										0	3	7	22	9	40	2	15	2
70		12	26		-	5										0	1	4	11	15	39	5	23	3
69		12	27		-	4												1	4	12	34	10	31	7
68		11	27		-	5												1	3	8	23	12	39	14
67		11	28		-	4														4	14	14	41	24	4
66		10	28		-	5													3		10	15	34	30	9
65		10	29		-	4														3	3	13	35	38	10
64		10	30		-	3														6		18	29	41		6
63		9	30		-	4																		60	40
62		9	31		-	3																	25	25	50
61		9	32		-	2																			100
60		7	31		-	5																			50	50
41		0	43		-	0																				100

Total:							31	5	8	0	27	1	16	0	6	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0