Saginaw Spirit Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 95.3%

31 points 14 8-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0	+0.4		-0.1
Windsor 1 Plymouth 2	-0.3
Oshawa 3 Barrie 5			+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Saginaw vs Windsor	+1.3+1.2+1.0-0.2*-0.1-1.6		+0.6+0.6+0.4-0.3-0.2-0.7		+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Plymouth vs Owen Sound	*-0.0-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.2
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury			-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Saginaw finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

104	-117						In		Yes		100										226	*
103		34	5		-	4	In		96.4	%	96	4									28	*
102		34	6		-	3	In		98.1		98	2									53	*
101		33	6		-	4	In		96.8		97	3									94	*
100		33	7		-	3	In		94.7		95	4	0								247	*
99		32	7		-	4	In		89.8		91	8	1								472	*
98		32	8		-	3	In		87.2		89	10	1								802	*
97		31	8		-	4	In		83.0		86	13	2								1,391	*
96		30	8		-	5	In		74.6		79	19	2								2,320	*
95		30	9		-	4	In		67.8		73	24	3	0							3,610	*
94		29	9		-	5	In		55.8		62	33	5	0							5,489	*
93		29	10		-	4	In		45.0		52	41	7	0							8,422	*
92		28	10		-	5	In		34.1		41	49	9	1	0						12,393	*
91		28	11		-	4	In		23.4		31	55	12	2	0						17,276	*
90		27	11		-	5	In		15.4		22	59	15	3	0	0					23,627	*
89		27	12		-	4	In		8.6		14	61	18	6	1	0					31,466	*
88		26	12		-	5	In		4.3		8	59	19	11	2	0					40,947	*
87		26	13		-	4	In		1.9		5	55	19	16	5	0					50,848	*
86		25	13		-	5	In		0.7		2	49	17	22	9	1	0				61,461	*
85		25	14		-	4	In		0.2		1	41	14	27	16	1	0				72,567	*
84		24	14		-	5	In		0.0		0	33	10	29	24	4	0				83,404	*
83		24	15		-	4	In		0.0		0	25	7	28	33	7	0				93,442	*
82		23	15		-	5	In		No		0	18	4	24	40	14	1	0			101,902	*
81		23	16		-	4	In		No		0	13	2	18	44	21	2	0			107,218	*
80		22	16		-	5	In		No		0	8	1	12	43	31	5	0			110,807	*
79		22	17		-	4	100.0	%	No			5	0	7	39	39	9	0	0		111,276	*
78		21	17		-	5	100.0		No			3	0	4	31	46	16	1	0		107,972	*
77		21	18		-	4	99.9		No			1	0	2	22	47	24	3	0		102,957	*
76		20	18		-	5	99.7		No			1	0	1	14	45	33	6	0	0	95,971	*
75		19	18		-	6	99.2		No			0	0	0	8	39	41	11	1	0	86,734	*
74		19	19		-	5	98.1		No			0	0	0	4	30	45	18	2	0	76,448	*
73		19	20		-	4	95.5		No			0		0	2	21	46	26	4	0	66,027	*
72		18	20		-	5	91.3		No			0		0	1	14	42	34	8	1	54,907	*
71		17	20		-	6	84.9		No			0		0	0	8	36	41	14	1	44,310	*
70		17	21		-	5	75.8		No						0	4	28	44	22	3	35,480	*
69		17	22		-	4	65.8		No						0	2	20	44	29	5	27,822	*
68		16	22		-	5	53.4		No						0	1	13	40	37	10	20,584	*
67		16	23		-	4	42.4		No							0	8	34	43	14	15,255	*
66		15	23		-	5	31.0		No							0	4	27	47	22	10,941	*
65		15	24		-	4	21.6		No							0	2	19	47	31	7,551	*
64		14	24		-	5	14.0		No							0	1	13	46	40	5,032	*
63		14	25		-	4	8.7		No							0	0	8	43	49	3,252	*
62		13	25		-	5	5.5		No								0	5	35	59	2,086	*
61		13	26		-	4	3.5		No								0	3	29	68	1,288	*
60		12	26		-	5	2.4		No									2	23	74	800	*
59		12	27		-	4	1.0		No									1	16	83	482	*
58		11	27		-	5	Out		No										13	87	278	*
57		11	28		-	4	Out		No										5	95	150	*
56		11	29		-	3	Out		No										5	95	75	*
55		10	29		-	4	Out		No										2	98	44	*
31	-54						Out		No											100	246	*

Total:							95.3	%	1.9	%	3	16	4	10	19	21	15	8	3	1	1,708,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Windsor 1 Plymouth 2	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Saginaw vs Windsor	-0.6-0.5-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.7
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

104	-117						100
103		34	5		-	4	96		4
102		34	6		-	3	98		2
101		33	6		-	4	97		3
100		33	7		-	3	95	0	4		0
99		32	7		-	4	90	1	8		1
98		32	8		-	3	87	1	10		1
97		31	8		-	4	83	3	13		2
96		30	8		-	5	75	4	19		2
95		30	9		-	4	68	5	24		3		0
94		29	9		-	5	56	6	33	0	5		0
93		29	10		-	4	45	7	41	0	7		0
92		28	10		-	5	34	7	49	0	9		1		0
91		28	11		-	4	23	8	55	0	12		2		0
90		27	11		-	5	15	7	58	1	15	0	3		0		0
89		27	12		-	4	9	6	60	1	18	0	6		1		0
88		26	12		-	5	4	4	57	2	19	0	11		2		0
87		26	13		-	4	2	3	52	3	19	0	16		5		0
86		25	13		-	5	1	1	44	5	17	1	22	0	9		1		0
85		25	14		-	4	0	1	35	6	14	1	27	0	16		1		0
84		24	14		-	5	0	0	26	7	9	1	29	0	24		4		0
83		24	15		-	4	0	0	17	8	6	1	27	0	33	0	7		0
82		23	15		-	5		0	10	8	3	1	23	0	40	0	14		1		0
81		23	16		-	4		0	6	7	1	1	17	1	44	0	21		2		0
80		22	16		-	5		0	3	5	0	0	11	1	43	0	31	0	5		0
79		22	17		-	4			1	4	0	0	6	1	38	1	39	0	9		0		0
78		21	17		-	5			0	2	0	0	3	1	29	2	45	0	16		1		0
77		21	18		-	4			0	1		0	1	1	19	3	47	0	24	0	3		0
76		20	18		-	5			0	1		0	0	0	11	3	44	1	33	0	6		0	0
75		19	18		-	6			0	0		0	0	0	5	3	36	3	41	0	11	0	1	0
74		19	19		-	5			0	0		0		0	2	2	25	5	44	1	18	0	2	0
73		19	20		-	4				0			0	0	0	1	15	7	44	3	26	0	4	0
72		18	20		-	5				0				0	0	1	7	7	36	6	34	0	8	1
71		17	20		-	6				0				0	0	0	3	6	26	9	39	2	14	1
70		17	21		-	5									0	0	1	3	15	12	40	4	21	3	0
69		17	22		-	4										0	0	2	8	12	35	9	29	6	0
68		16	22		-	5										0	0	1	3	10	27	13	35	11	0	0
67		16	23		-	4												0	1	7	18	17	39	17	2	0
66		15	23		-	5												0	0	4	9	17	37	27	4	0
65		15	24		-	4												0	0	2	5	15	32	35	10	1
64		14	24		-	5												0		1	2	11	25	40	18	3
63		14	25		-	4												0		0	0	8	18	41	26	7
62		13	25		-	5														0	0	5	10	35	37	12
61		13	26		-	4														0	0	3	6	29	43	18
60		12	26		-	5																2	3	24	43	27
59		12	27		-	4																1	1	9	46	42
58		11	27		-	5																	1	12	37	51
57		11	28		-	4																		5	37	58
56		10	28		-	5																		3	24	73
55		10	29		-	4																			18	82
54		10	30		-	3																			19	81
53		10	31		-	2																		13		88
31	-52																									100

Total:							2	1	13	3	4	0	10	0	19	1	19	1	14	1	7	1	3	1	0	0