Guelph Storm Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Beat Kitchener 6-0, playoff odds up 0.1 to 99.8%

41 points 19 4-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0	+0.1		+3.3		+0.2
Windsor 1 Plymouth 2			+0.2
Oshawa 3 Barrie 5			+0.9

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury			-0.6-0.7-0.5*+0.0+0.4+0.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Guelph finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

110	-125						In		Yes		100										383	*
109		32	6		-	4	In		99.4	%	99		1								179	*
108		32	7		-	3	In		Yes		100										371	*
107		31	7		-	4	In		99.7		100		0								621	*
106		31	8		-	3	In		99.8		100		0								1,159	*
105		30	8		-	4	In		99.8		100		0								2,020	*
104		29	8		-	5	In		99.2		99	0	1								3,208	*
103		29	9		-	4	In		98.9		99	0	1								4,994	*
102		28	9		-	5	In		98.0		98	0	1								7,694	*
101		28	10		-	4	In		97.2		98	0	2	0							11,477	*
100		27	10		-	5	In		95.0		96	1	3	0							16,273	*
99		27	11		-	4	In		92.3		94	1	5	0							22,284	*
98		26	11		-	5	In		88.4		91	1	8	0							29,937	*
97		26	12		-	4	In		83.7		87	2	11	0							38,830	*
96		25	12		-	5	In		77.3		82	3	15	0							49,305	*
95		25	13		-	4	In		69.4		75	5	20	1							60,046	*
94		24	13		-	5	In		60.0		67	6	25	1	0						71,318	*
93		24	14		-	4	In		49.7		58	8	31	2	0						82,688	*
92		23	14		-	5	In		38.8		48	10	38	4	0						92,897	*
91		23	15		-	4	In		28.6		38	12	44	7	0						101,641	*
90		22	15		-	5	In		19.3		28	13	49	10	0						107,725	*
89		22	16		-	4	In		11.8		20	13	52	15	0	0					111,388	*
88		21	16		-	5	In		6.5		13	13	52	22	1	0					112,816	*
87		21	17		-	4	In		3.1		7	11	50	29	2	0					110,495	*
86		20	17		-	5	In		1.2		4	9	45	38	4	0	0				104,605	*
85		20	18		-	4	In		0.4		2	7	38	45	8	1	0				97,700	*
84		19	18		-	5	In		0.1		1	5	29	49	15	1	0				88,674	*
83		19	19		-	4	In		0.0		0	3	20	50	23	4	0				77,986	*
82		18	19		-	5	In		0.0		0	2	13	46	32	7	1	0			66,824	*
81		18	20		-	4	In		No		0	1	7	37	40	14	1	0			55,769	*
80		17	20		-	5	In		No		0	0	3	27	43	22	3	0			45,307	*
79		17	21		-	4	In		No		0	0	2	17	42	31	8	0			35,826	*
78		16	21		-	5	100.0	%	No			0	1	10	36	39	13	1	0		28,063	*
77		16	22		-	4	99.9		No			0	0	5	26	43	22	3	0		20,750	*
76		15	22		-	5	99.7		No				0	2	18	42	31	6	0	0	15,359	*
75		15	23		-	4	98.9		No				0	1	10	35	41	12	1	0	10,745	*
74		14	23		-	5	97.4		No				0	0	5	27	44	21	3	0	7,619	*
73		14	24		-	4	94.1		No					0	2	19	43	30	6	0	4,932	*
72		13	24		-	5	87.8		No						1	11	40	36	11	1	3,269	*
71		13	25		-	4	80.0		No						0	5	33	42	18	2	1,991	*
70		12	25		-	5	69.4		No						0	3	23	44	27	4	1,315	*
69		12	26		-	4	60.1		No							1	15	44	31	9	751	*
68		11	26		-	5	40.9		No							1	10	30	44	15	457	*
67		11	27		-	4	34.1		No							0	6	28	43	23	276	*
66		10	27		-	5	28.4		No								3	26	45	26	148	*
65		9	27		-	6	15.2		No								2	14	47	38	66	*
64		9	28		-	5	16.0		No									16	34	50	50	*
63		9	29		-	4	4.0		No									4	44	52	25	*
62		7	28		-	7	14.3		No									14	29	57	7	*
41	-61						Out		No											100	217	*

Total:							99.8	%	23.5	%	28	7	30	20	8	4	2	1	0	0	1,708,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0	-0.4

Wednesday	None

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

110	-125						100
109		32	6		-	4	99				1
108		32	7		-	3	100
107		31	7		-	4	100	0			0
106		31	8		-	3	100	0			0
105		30	8		-	4	100	0			0
104		29	8		-	5	99	0	0		1
103		29	9		-	4	99	0	0		1
102		28	9		-	5	98	0	0		1
101		28	10		-	4	97	1	0		2		0
100		27	10		-	5	95	1	1		3		0
99		27	11		-	4	92	2	1		5		0
98		26	11		-	5	88	2	1		8		0
97		26	12		-	4	84	3	2		11		0
96		25	12		-	5	77	4	3	0	15		0
95		25	13		-	4	69	6	5	0	20		1
94		24	13		-	5	60	7	6	0	25	0	1		0
93		24	14		-	4	50	9	8	0	31	0	2		0
92		23	14		-	5	39	9	10	0	38	0	4		0
91		23	15		-	4	29	10	12	0	43	0	7		0
90		22	15		-	5	19	9	13	0	48	0	10		0
89		22	16		-	4	12	8	13	0	51	0	15		0		0
88		21	16		-	5	6	6	12	0	52	0	22		1		0
87		21	17		-	4	3	4	10	1	49	1	29		2		0
86		20	17		-	5	1	3	8	1	44	1	38	0	4		0		0
85		20	18		-	4	0	1	6	1	35	2	45	0	8		1		0
84		19	18		-	5	0	1	4	1	26	3	49	0	15		1		0
83		19	19		-	4	0	0	2	1	17	3	50	0	23	0	4		0
82		18	19		-	5	0	0	1	1	10	3	45	1	32	0	7		1		0
81		18	20		-	4		0	0	1	4	3	36	2	39	0	14		1		0
80		17	20		-	5		0	0	0	2	2	25	2	43	0	22	0	3		0
79		17	21		-	4		0	0	0	1	1	14	3	41	1	31	0	8		0
78		16	21		-	5			0	0	0	0	7	3	34	2	39	0	13		1		0
77		16	22		-	4				0	0	0	3	3	23	3	43	0	22		3		0
76		15	22		-	5						0	1	2	14	4	40	1	31	0	6		0	0
75		15	23		-	4						0	0	1	6	4	32	3	41	0	12		1	0
74		14	23		-	5						0	0	0	2	3	22	5	43	1	21	0	3	0
73		14	24		-	4							0	0	1	2	13	6	40	3	30	0	6	0
72		13	24		-	5									0	1	6	5	34	6	35	0	11	1
71		13	25		-	4										0	2	3	25	8	40	2	18	2	0
70		12	25		-	5										0	1	2	13	10	40	4	27	4	0
69		12	26		-	4												1	6	10	37	7	31	9	0
68		11	26		-	5												1	3	7	19	10	42	17
67		11	27		-	4												0	0	5	14	14	38	24	3	0
66		10	27		-	5													1	2	11	15	38	30	3
65		9	27		-	6														2	3	11	33	38	14
64		9	28		-	5															6	10	16	42	22	4
63		9	29		-	4																4	20	32	36	8
62		7	28		-	7																14	14	29	29	14
61		10	32		-	0																		25	25	50
59		7	31		-	4																			100
41		0	42		-	0																				100

Total:							24	4	6	0	29	1	19	0	8	0	4	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0