Kitchener Rangers Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Lost to Guelph 0-6, playoff odds down 7.2 to 40.5%

17 points 8 14-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0	-5.9		-0.2
Windsor 1 Plymouth 2	-1.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Plymouth vs Owen Sound	-0.5-1.5-1.5*-0.3-0.6+1.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Kitchener finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

95	-107						In		Yes		100										216	*
94		36	4		-	5	In		50.0	%	60	20	20								10	*
93		37	6		-	2	In		63.6		64	18	18								11	*
92		36	6		-	3	In		55.2		69	3	24	3							29	*
91		35	6		-	4	In		42.0		46	6	40	8							50	*
90		34	6		-	5	In		20.3		30	7	51	9	2						128	*
89		34	7		-	4	In		12.6		22	10	42	24	3						206	*
88		33	7		-	5	In		8.1		14	9	45	28	4						369	*
87		33	8		-	4	In		2.8		7	8	42	36	8	0					707	*
86		32	8		-	5	In		1.2		3	6	36	41	13	1					1,153	*
85		32	9		-	4	In		0.2		1	3	26	47	21	2					1,843	*
84		31	9		-	5	In		0.1		1	2	17	46	30	4	0				2,928	*
83		31	10		-	4	In		0.0		0	1	11	38	40	9	1				4,765	*
82		30	10		-	5	In		No		0	0	6	31	45	16	2	0			6,951	*
81		30	11		-	4	In		No		0	0	2	22	46	25	4	0			10,145	*
80		29	11		-	5	In		No			0	1	13	41	35	9	1			14,479	*
79		29	12		-	4	100.0	%	No			0	0	7	33	41	17	2	0		20,055	*
78		28	12		-	5	99.9		No				0	3	23	43	26	5	0		26,807	*
77		28	13		-	4	99.5		No			0	0	1	14	40	35	9	0		34,629	*
76		27	13		-	5	98.6		No				0	0	8	32	42	16	1	0	44,038	*
75		27	14		-	4	96.7		No			0		0	4	24	45	25	3	0	53,861	*
74		26	14		-	5	93.0		No					0	2	15	42	34	7	0	64,400	*
73		25	14		-	6	87.4		No					0	1	9	36	42	12	1	74,509	*
72		25	15		-	5	79.1		No					0	0	5	28	46	19	1	84,730	*
71		24	15		-	6	69.1		No						0	2	20	47	28	3	94,175	*
70		24	16		-	5	57.5		No						0	1	13	44	37	6	100,629	*
69		23	16		-	6	44.1		No						0	0	7	37	45	11	61,273	*
		24	17		-	4	49.1		No						0	1	9	40	42	9	44,865	*
68		23	17		-	5	34.6		No							0	4	30	50	16	68,120	*
		24	18		-	3	35.6		No							0	5	31	50	15	40,662	*
67		22	17		-	6	25.1		No							0	2	23	52	23	108,196	*
66		22	18		-	5	17.4		No							0	1	16	52	30	104,879	*
65		21	18		-	6	11.1		No							0	0	11	50	39	99,457	*
64		21	19		-	5	7.0		No								0	7	45	48	92,508	*
63		20	19		-	6	4.2		No								0	4	39	57	83,130	*
62		20	20		-	5	2.3		No								0	2	32	65	73,921	*
61		19	20		-	6	1.2		No								0	1	26	73	63,354	*
60		19	21		-	5	0.6		No								0	1	21	79	52,988	*
59		18	21		-	6	0.3		No									0	16	84	43,352	*
58		18	22		-	5	0.1		No									0	12	88	34,756	*
57		17	22		-	6	0.1		No									0	9	91	26,735	*
56		17	23		-	5	0.0		No									0	6	94	20,211	*
55		16	23		-	6	0.0		No									0	4	96	14,877	*
54		16	24		-	5	0.0		No									0	3	97	10,931	*
53		15	24		-	6	0.0		No									0	2	98	7,595	*
52		15	25		-	5	Out		No										1	99	5,326	*
51		15	26		-	4	Out		No										1	99	3,464	*
50		14	26		-	5	Out		No										1	99	2,250	*
49		13	26		-	6	Out		No										0	100	1,461	*
17	-48						Out		No											100	2,346	*

Total:							40.5	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	1	2	6	11	20	29	30	1,708,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0	+0.4
Windsor 1 Plymouth 2	+0.0

Wednesday	None

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

95	-107						100
94		36	4		-	5	50	10	20		20
93		37	6		-	2	64		18		18
92		36	6		-	3	55	14	3		24		3
91		35	6		-	4	42	4	6		40		8
90		34	6		-	5	20	10	7		51		9		2
89		34	7		-	4	13	9	9	0	41	0	24		3
88		33	7		-	5	8	6	9	0	45	0	28		4
87		33	8		-	4	3	4	8	0	41	1	36		8		0
86		32	8		-	5	1	2	5	1	35	1	41		13		1
85		32	9		-	4	0	1	3	0	24	2	47		21		2
84		31	9		-	5	0	0	2	0	15	2	46		30		4		0
83		31	10		-	4	0	0	1	0	9	2	38	0	40		9		1
82		30	10		-	5		0	0	0	4	1	31	1	45	0	16		2		0
81		30	11		-	4		0	0	0	1	1	21	1	46	0	25		4		0
80		29	11		-	5			0	0	1	0	11	1	41	0	35		9		1
79		29	12		-	4			0	0	0	0	6	1	33	1	41	0	17		2		0
78		28	12		-	5					0	0	2	1	22	1	43	0	26		5		0
77		28	13		-	4				0	0	0	1	1	13	2	39	0	35	0	9		0
76		27	13		-	5						0	0	0	6	2	31	1	42	0	16		1	0
75		27	14		-	4				0			0	0	2	1	22	2	44	0	25	0	3	0
74		26	14		-	5							0	0	1	1	12	3	41	1	34	0	7	0
73		25	14		-	6								0	0	0	6	3	34	2	42	0	12	1
72		25	15		-	5								0	0	0	2	2	24	4	46	1	19	1
71		24	15		-	6									0	0	1	1	15	5	45	2	28	3	0
70		24	16		-	5										0	0	1	7	5	40	4	36	6	0
69		23	16		-	6										0	0	0	3	5	31	7	43	10	0	0
68		23	17		-	5											0	0	1	3	21	10	47	17	1	0
67		22	17		-	6												0	0	2	12	11	47	26	2	0
66		22	18		-	5												0	0	1	6	10	43	34	6	0
65		21	18		-	6												0	0	0	2	8	35	41	11	1
64		21	19		-	5													0	0	1	6	25	45	20	3
63		20	19		-	6														0	0	4	17	43	29	7
62		20	20		-	5														0	0	2	10	38	37	13
61		19	20		-	6														0	0	1	6	30	43	20
60		19	21		-	5														0	0	1	3	22	45	29
59		18	21		-	6																0	1	15	44	39
58		18	22		-	5																0	1	10	40	49
57		17	22		-	6																0	0	6	34	59
56		17	23		-	5																0	0	3	28	69
55		16	23		-	6																0	0	2	23	76
54		16	24		-	5																0		1	17	82
53		15	24		-	6																0		0	12	88
52		15	25		-	5																		0	8	92
51		15	26		-	4																		0	6	94
50		14	26		-	5																			4	96
49		13	26		-	6																		0	2	98
48		13	27		-	5																			2	98
47		13	28		-	4																			1	99
46		12	28		-	5																			1	99
45		12	29		-	4																			2	98
17	-44																									100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	5	1	10	2	16	4	22	17	11	9