Barrie Colts Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Beat Oshawa 5-3, playoff odds up 0.6 to 98.7%

31 points 14 8-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Oshawa 3 Barrie 5	+0.6		+0.5		+0.3
Ottawa 5 Niagara 2	+0.1
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0			-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Belleville vs Mississauga	-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0		-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Barrie finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

103	-117						In		Yes		100										268	*
102		34	6		-	3	In		96.7	%	98	2									61	*
101		33	6		-	4	In		94.4		99	1									124	*
100		33	7		-	3	In		92.2		99	1									219	*
99		32	7		-	4	In		91.1		99	1									404	*
98		32	8		-	3	In		82.9		99	1									790	*
97		31	8		-	4	In		79.6		97	3									1,410	*
96		30	8		-	5	In		70.6		95	5									2,249	*
95		30	9		-	4	In		58.7		93	7									3,652	*
94		29	9		-	5	In		51.3		91	9	0								5,718	*
93		29	10		-	4	In		38.4		87	13	0								8,456	*
92		28	10		-	5	In		28.0		83	16	0								12,447	*
91		28	11		-	4	In		18.8		78	22	0								17,479	*
90		27	11		-	5	In		11.5		72	27	1								23,862	*
89		27	12		-	4	In		6.3		66	33	1	0							31,513	*
88		26	12		-	5	In		3.0		59	39	2	0							40,422	*
87		26	13		-	4	In		1.3		51	46	3	0							50,523	*
86		25	13		-	5	In		0.5		43	52	5	0							61,437	*
85		25	14		-	4	In		0.1		34	59	7	0	0						73,117	*
84		24	14		-	5	In		0.0		26	62	11	1	0						83,444	*
83		24	15		-	4	In		0.0		19	65	14	2	0	0					93,025	*
82		23	15		-	5	In		0.0		13	64	19	4	0	0					101,861	*
81		23	16		-	4	In		No		8	61	23	8	1	0					107,286	*
80		22	16		-	5	In		No		4	56	25	13	2	0					110,128	*
79		22	17		-	4	In		No		2	48	26	20	4	0	0				110,900	*
78		21	17		-	5	In		No		1	39	24	27	8	1	0				108,531	*
77		20	17		-	6	In		No		0	30	20	33	15	2	0	0			102,922	*
76		20	18		-	5	In		No		0	21	14	35	23	6	0	0			95,954	*
75		19	18		-	6	In		No		0	14	9	32	31	12	2	0			86,095	*
74		19	19		-	5	100.0	%	No		0	9	5	25	36	20	4	0	0		76,675	*
73		19	20		-	4	100.0		No			5	2	17	36	29	9	1	0		66,170	*
72		18	20		-	5	99.9		No			3	1	10	30	36	17	3	0		54,673	*
71		18	21		-	4	99.6		No			1	0	5	22	38	27	7	0		44,893	*
70		17	21		-	5	98.6		No			0	0	2	13	33	36	14	1	0	35,656	*
69		17	22		-	4	96.0		No			0	0	1	7	26	40	23	4	0	27,750	*
68		16	22		-	5	91.5		No			0		0	3	17	39	33	8	1	20,547	*
67		16	23		-	4	84.2		No			0		0	1	9	33	41	14	1	15,203	*
66		15	23		-	5	72.7		No						0	5	24	44	24	3	11,037	*
65		15	24		-	4	60.8		No						0	2	16	43	32	7	7,551	*
64		14	24		-	5	46.4		No							1	9	37	41	12	5,083	*
63		14	25		-	4	33.9		No							0	5	29	47	19	3,360	*
62		13	25		-	5	25.0		No							0	2	23	50	25	2,127	*
61		12	25		-	6	16.3		No							0	1	15	48	36	1,364	*
60		12	26		-	5	10.4		No								0	10	43	47	855	*
59		12	27		-	4	6.2		No								0	6	43	51	449	*
58		11	27		-	5	4.9		No									5	29	66	268	*
57		11	28		-	4	4.3		No									4	26	70	161	*
56		11	29		-	3	Out		No										25	75	64	*
55		10	29		-	4	Out		No										6	94	48	*
54		9	29		-	5	5.6		No									6	11	83	18	*
53		9	30		-	4	Out		No										22	78	9	*
31	-52						Out		No											100	222	*

Total:							98.7	%	1.5	%	15	36	12	13	10	7	4	2	1	0	1,708,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oshawa 3 Barrie 5	-0.5
Kingston 7 Mississauga 5	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Belleville vs Mississauga	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

103	-117						100
102		34	6		-	3	97	2	2
101		33	6		-	4	94	5	1
100		33	7		-	3	92	7	1
99		32	7		-	4	91	7	1
98		32	8		-	3	83	16	1
97		31	8		-	4	80	18	3
96		30	8		-	5	71	25	5	0
95		30	9		-	4	59	34	7	0
94		29	9		-	5	51	40	9	0	0
93		29	10		-	4	38	49	12	1	0
92		28	10		-	5	28	55	15	2	0	0
91		28	11		-	4	19	59	19	3	0	0
90		27	11		-	5	11	61	21	6	0	0
89		27	12		-	4	6	59	23	10	1	0	0
88		26	12		-	5	3	56	24	16	1	1	0
87		26	13		-	4	1	50	23	23	1	2	0	0
86		25	13		-	5	0	42	21	32	2	3	0	0
85		25	14		-	4	0	34	18	41	2	6	0	0	0
84		24	14		-	5	0	26	13	49	1	9	0	0	0
83		24	15		-	4	0	19	9	56	1	13	1	1	0	0	0
82		23	15		-	5	0	13	6	59	1	18	1	3	0	0	0
81		23	16		-	4		8	3	58	0	23	1	6	0	0	0
80		22	16		-	5		4	2	55	0	25	1	12	1	1	0	0
79		22	17		-	4		2	1	48	0	26	1	19	1	2	0	0	0
78		21	17		-	5		1	0	39	0	24	0	26	2	6	1	0	0	0
77		20	17		-	6		0	0	30	0	20	0	33	2	13	1	1	0	0	0
76		20	18		-	5		0	0	21		14	0	35	1	22	2	4	0	0	0
75		19	18		-	6		0	0	14		9	0	32	1	31	3	9	1	1	0	0
74		19	19		-	5		0		9		5	0	25	0	36	2	18	2	2	0	0	0
73		19	20		-	4				5		2		17	0	36	2	27	3	6	1	0	0
72		18	20		-	5				3		1		10	0	30	1	35	4	13	2	1	0	0
71		18	21		-	4				1		0		5	0	22	0	38	4	23	4	3	0	0	0
70		17	21		-	5				0		0		2		13	0	33	2	33	6	8	1	0	0
69		17	22		-	4				0		0		1		7	0	26	1	38	7	17	3	1	0
68		16	22		-	5				0				0		3	0	17	0	39	6	27	5	3	1	0
67		16	23		-	4				0				0		1		9	0	32	4	37	7	7	2	0
66		15	23		-	5										0		5	0	24	2	41	9	12	6	0
65		15	24		-	4										0		2	0	16	1	42	9	17	12	2
64		14	24		-	5												1		9	1	36	8	21	21	4
63		14	25		-	4												0		5	0	29	5	24	29	8
62		13	25		-	5												0		2	0	23	4	20	39	13
61		12	25		-	6												0		1		15	2	17	42	23
60		12	26		-	5														0		10	1	12	45	32
59		12	27		-	4														0		6	0	10	46	38
58		11	27		-	5																5	0	4	35	56
57		11	28		-	4																4		3	32	61
56		11	29		-	3																	2	5	39	55
55		10	29		-	4																			13	88
54		9	29		-	5																6			11	83
53		9	30		-	4																		11	11	78
52		9	31		-	3																			17	83
31	-51																									100

Total:							2	13	6	30	0	12	0	12	1	9	1	6	1	4	1	2	0	0	0	0