Niagara IceDogs Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Lost to Ottawa 2-5, playoff odds down 7.4 to 36.7%

16 points 6 16-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ottawa 5 Niagara 2	-7.4		No		-0.3
Kingston 7 Mississauga 5	+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Belleville vs Mississauga	-0.3-1.0-0.9-0.2-0.1+0.7
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	+0.6+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Niagara finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

100		42	0		-	0	In		97.2	%	99	1									212
90	-91						In		No		100										2	*
89		35	4		-	3	In		No		80	20									5	*
88		35	5		-	2	In		No		50	40	10								10	*
87		34	5		-	3	In		No		56	28	16								25	*
86		33	5		-	4	In		No		39	50	11								36	*
85		33	6		-	3	In		1.2		32	52	15								84	*
84		32	6		-	4	In		No		23	56	20	2							191	*
83		31	6		-	5	In		No		17	55	22	4	0	0					368	*
82		31	7		-	4	In		No		11	54	29	5	0						681	*
81		31	8		-	3	In		No		7	49	34	10	1						1,190	*
80		30	8		-	4	In		No		3	42	36	16	2	0					1,971	*
79		29	8		-	5	In		No		2	32	35	25	5	0					3,145	*
78		29	9		-	4	In		No		1	24	30	33	11	1	0				5,000	*
77		28	9		-	5	In		No		0	17	23	37	19	4	0	0			7,766	*
76		28	10		-	4	In		No		0	11	15	37	28	8	1	0			11,161	*
75		27	10		-	5	100.0	%	No		0	6	9	31	35	16	3	0	0		16,022	*
74		27	11		-	4	100.0		No			3	4	22	37	25	7	1	0		22,316	*
73		26	11		-	5	99.8		No			1	2	13	33	33	15	3	0		29,770	*
72		26	12		-	4	99.4		No			1	1	7	24	36	24	7	1	0	39,080	*
71		25	12		-	5	98.2		No			0	0	3	15	34	33	13	2	0	48,950	*
70		25	13		-	4	95.4		No			0	0	1	8	26	38	23	4	0	60,019	*
69		24	13		-	5	89.4		No			0	0	0	3	17	37	32	10	1	71,027	*
68		24	14		-	4	81.2		No			0		0	1	10	31	39	17	1	82,262	*
67		23	14		-	5	69.5		No			0		0	0	5	22	42	27	3	92,950	*
66		23	15		-	4	55.8		No					0	0	2	14	40	37	7	50,382	*
		22	14		-	6	55.8		No						0	2	14	40	37	7	51,505	*
65		22	15		-	5	42.0		No					0	0	1	8	33	46	12	107,602	*
64		22	16		-	4	31.6		No						0	0	5	27	51	18	60,034	*
		21	15		-	6	28.2		No						0	0	4	25	52	20	51,815	*
63		21	16		-	5	20.0		No						0	0	2	18	53	27	112,688	*
62		21	17		-	4	12.6		No							0	1	12	51	36	109,890	*
61		20	17		-	5	7.5		No							0	0	7	47	46	105,465	*
60		20	18		-	4	4.2		No								0	4	41	55	98,154	*
59		19	18		-	5	2.2		No								0	2	34	64	88,299	*
58		19	19		-	4	1.2		No								0	1	28	71	77,810	*
57		18	19		-	5	0.5		No								0	1	22	78	66,850	*
56		18	20		-	4	0.3		No									0	16	83	55,951	*
55		17	20		-	5	0.1		No									0	13	87	45,512	*
54		17	21		-	4	0.0		No									0	9	91	36,004	*
53		16	21		-	5	0.0		No									0	6	94	27,993	*
52		16	22		-	4	0.0		No									0	4	96	20,867	*
51		15	22		-	5	Out		No										3	97	15,362	*
50		15	23		-	4	Out		No										2	98	10,899	*
49		14	23		-	5	Out		No										1	99	7,503	*
48		14	24		-	4	Out		No										1	99	4,987	*
47		13	24		-	5	Out		No										1	99	3,262	*
46		13	25		-	4	Out		No										0	100	2,111	*
45		12	25		-	5	Out		No										0	100	1,332	*
16	-44						Out		No											100	1,960	*

Total:							36.7	%	0.0	%	0	1	1	2	3	5	9	16	29	35	1,708,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

100		42	0		-	0	97	2	1
90	-91							100
89		35	4		-	3		80	20
88		34	4		-	4		50	10	30	10
87		34	5		-	3		56	20	8	4	12
86		33	5		-	4		39	14	36	6	6
85		33	6		-	3	1	31	19	33	7	8
84		32	6		-	4		23	18	38	5	15	1	1
83		31	6		-	5		17	13	43	2	20	3	1		0	0
82		31	7		-	4		11	7	47	1	28	2	3	0	0
81		31	8		-	3		7	3	46	1	34	3	7	0	0
80		30	8		-	4		3	1	41	0	35	2	14	1	1	0
79		29	8		-	5		2	0	32	0	35	2	23	2	3	0	0
78		29	9		-	4		1	0	24	0	30	1	32	3	8	1	0	0
77		28	9		-	5		0	0	17		23	0	36	3	16	2	1	0	0	0
76		28	10		-	4		0		11		15	0	37	2	25	4	5	1	0	0
75		27	10		-	5		0	0	6		9	0	31	1	34	4	11	2	1	0	0	0
74		27	11		-	4				3		4		22	0	36	4	21	4	3	1	0	0
73		26	11		-	5				1		2		13	0	33	2	30	7	9	2	0	0
72		26	12		-	4				1		1		7	0	24	1	35	7	17	5	2	1	0
71		25	12		-	5				0		0		3	0	15	0	34	6	27	8	5	2	0	0
70		25	13		-	4				0		0		1		8	0	26	3	34	11	12	4	1	0	0
69		24	13		-	5				0		0		0		3	0	17	2	35	10	21	8	2	0	0
68		24	14		-	4				0				0		1		10	0	30	8	31	12	6	1	0
67		23	14		-	5				0				0		0	0	5	0	22	5	37	15	12	3	0
66		23	15		-	4								0		0		2	0	14	3	37	16	19	8	1
65		22	15		-	5										0		1		8	1	32	14	26	16	2
		23	16		-	3								0		0		1	0	8	1	32	14	26	16	2
64		22	16		-	4										0		0	0	4	0	25	11	29	25	5
63		21	16		-	5										0		0		2	0	18	7	28	35	10
62		21	17		-	4												0		1	0	12	4	24	42	18
61		20	17		-	5												0		0	0	7	2	19	45	26
60		20	18		-	4														0	0	4	1	13	45	36
59		19	18		-	5														0	0	2	1	9	41	47
58		19	19		-	4														0		1	0	5	36	58
57		18	19		-	5														0		1	0	3	30	67
56		18	20		-	4																0	0	2	23	75
55		17	20		-	5																0	0	1	18	81
54		17	21		-	4																0	0	0	13	87
53		16	21		-	5																0		0	9	91
52		16	22		-	4																0		0	6	94
51		15	22		-	5																		0	5	95
50		15	23		-	4																		0	3	97
49		14	23		-	5																		0	2	98
48		14	24		-	4																			1	99
47		13	24		-	5																			1	99
46		13	25		-	4																			0	100
45		12	25		-	5																			0	100
44		12	26		-	4																			0	100
16	-43																									100

Total:							0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	3	0	5	1	9	2	14	5	12	20	26