Sarnia Sting Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 28.3%

17 points 8 16-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0	+1.6
Windsor 1 Plymouth 2	-1.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Plymouth vs Owen Sound	-0.3-1.4-1.2-0.6-0.5+1.0
Saginaw vs Windsor	-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Sarnia finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

103		43	0		-	0	In		Yes		100										212
92		37	5		-	1	In		50.0	%	50	50									2	*
91		35	4		-	4	In		33.3		67	33									6	*
90		35	5		-	3	In		50.0		50	50									6	*
89		34	5		-	4	In		10.3		18	56	26								39	*
88		34	6		-	3	In		10.2		17	53	24	5		2					59	*
87		33	6		-	4	In		4.3		6	61	21	10	3						115	*
86		32	6		-	5	In		No		3	53	21	18	4						217	*
85		32	7		-	4	In		0.4		2	43	20	25	11	0					465	*
84		32	8		-	3	In		0.2		1	31	15	35	17	2	0				818	*
83		31	8		-	4	In		No		0	24	10	32	27	6	0				1,320	*
82		30	8		-	5	In		No			18	6	28	35	12	1				2,202	*
81		30	9		-	4	In		No			11	3	22	39	21	3	0			3,642	*
80		29	9		-	5	In		No			7	1	15	39	30	7	1			5,657	*
79		29	10		-	4	100.0	%	No			4	1	8	33	38	14	1	0		8,478	*
78		28	10		-	5	99.9		No			2	0	4	26	42	22	4	0		12,361	*
77		28	11		-	4	99.6		No			1	0	2	17	41	32	7	0	0	17,329	*
76		27	11		-	5	98.8		No			0	0	1	10	34	39	14	1	0	23,932	*
75		27	12		-	4	96.7		No			0		0	5	26	43	22	3	0	31,349	*
74		26	12		-	5	93.7		No			0		0	2	18	42	32	6	0	40,790	*
73		26	13		-	4	87.8		No			0		0	1	10	37	40	11	1	50,561	*
72		25	13		-	5	79.6		No			0		0	0	6	29	45	19	2	61,473	*
71		25	14		-	4	69.2		No					0	0	3	21	46	27	4	73,011	*
70		24	14		-	5	57.5		No						0	1	13	43	35	7	83,314	*
69		24	15		-	4	45.3		No						0	0	8	37	43	12	93,114	*
68		23	15		-	5	34.0		No						0	0	4	30	48	18	37,744
		24	16		-	3	33.7		No							0	4	29	48	19	63,488	*
67		23	16		-	4	24.1		No						0	0	2	22	50	26	106,671	*
66		22	16		-	5	16.5		No							0	1	15	49	34	41,028
		21	15		-	7	16.1		No							0	1	15	49	35	69,882	*
65		22	17		-	4	10.5		No							0	0	10	45	44	111,327	*
64		21	17		-	5	6.3		No								0	6	40	54	67,014	*
		22	18		-	3	6.6		No								0	6	40	53	41,895	*
63		21	18		-	4	3.8		No								0	4	34	62	103,389	*
62		20	18		-	5	2.1		No								0	2	28	70	95,860	*
61		20	19		-	4	1.1		No								0	1	22	77	86,922	*
60		19	19		-	5	0.5		No								0	0	17	83	76,920	*
59		19	20		-	4	0.3		No									0	12	87	65,467	*
58		18	20		-	5	0.1		No									0	9	91	55,147	*
57		18	21		-	4	0.0		No								0	0	6	94	44,620	*
56		17	21		-	5	0.0		No									0	4	96	35,507	*
55		17	22		-	4	0.0		No									0	3	97	27,172	*
54		16	22		-	5	0.0		No									0	2	98	20,374	*
53		16	23		-	4	Out		No										1	99	15,217	*
52		15	23		-	5	Out		No										1	99	10,709	*
51		15	24		-	4	Out		No										0	100	7,523	*
50		14	24		-	5	Out		No										0	100	5,170	*
49		14	25		-	4	Out		No										0	100	3,302	*
48		13	25		-	5	Out		No										0	100	2,180	*
17	-47						Out		No											100	3,480	*

Total:							28.3	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	0	1	3	8	16	28	44	1,708,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Plymouth vs Owen Sound	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

103		43	0		-	0	100
92		37	5		-	1	50		50
91		36	5		-	2	33	33	33
90		35	5		-	3	50		50
89		34	5		-	4	10	8	56		26
88		34	6		-	3	10	7	49	3	24		5				2
87		33	6		-	4	4	2	61		21		10		3
86		32	6		-	5		3	47	6	21		18		4
85		32	7		-	4	0	2	38	5	19	1	25		11		0
84		32	8		-	3	0	0	26	5	14	1	35		17		2		0
83		31	8		-	4		0	18	6	9	1	32		27		6		0
82		30	8		-	5			11	7	4	1	28	0	35		12		1
81		30	9		-	4			6	5	2	1	22	0	39	0	21		3		0
80		29	9		-	5			2	4	1	1	14	1	39	0	30		7		1
79		29	10		-	4			1	3	0	0	7	1	33	0	38	0	14		1		0
78		28	10		-	5			0	2	0	0	3	1	25	1	42	0	22		4		0
77		28	11		-	4			0	1		0	1	1	15	1	40	0	32		7		0	0
76		27	11		-	5			0	0		0	0	0	8	2	34	1	39	0	14		1	0
75		27	12		-	4				0			0	0	3	2	25	1	43	0	22	0	3	0
74		26	12		-	5				0			0	0	1	1	15	3	41	1	32	0	6	0
73		26	13		-	4				0				0	0	1	8	3	35	2	40	0	11	1
72		25	13		-	5				0				0	0	0	3	3	26	3	44	0	19	2
71		25	14		-	4								0	0	0	1	2	16	4	45	1	27	4
70		24	14		-	5									0	0	0	1	8	5	40	3	35	7	0
69		24	15		-	4										0	0	0	3	4	31	6	42	12	0	0
68		23	15		-	5										0	0	0	1	3	21	8	46	19	1	0
67		23	16		-	4										0	0	0	0	2	12	10	46	28	2	0
66		22	16		-	5												0	0	1	6	9	41	37	5	0
65		22	17		-	4												0	0	0	3	7	33	44	11	1
64		21	17		-	5													0	0	1	5	24	47	19	3
63		21	18		-	4														0	0	3	16	45	28	7
62		20	18		-	5														0	0	2	10	40	37	12
61		20	19		-	4														0	0	1	5	31	42	20
60		19	19		-	5														0	0	0	3	23	45	28
59		19	20		-	4																0	1	16	44	38
58		18	20		-	5																0	1	10	40	49
57		18	21		-	4														0		0	0	6	34	59
56		17	21		-	5																0	0	3	29	68
55		17	22		-	4																0	0	2	23	75
54		16	22		-	5																0	0	1	17	82
53		16	23		-	4																	0	0	13	87
52		15	23		-	5																		0	9	91
51		15	24		-	4																		0	6	94
50		14	24		-	5																			4	96
49		14	25		-	4																		0	3	97
48		13	25		-	5																			3	97
47		13	26		-	4																			1	99
46		12	26		-	5																			1	99
45		12	27		-	4																			0	100
44		12	28		-	3																			0	100
40	-43																									100
39		9	30		-	4																			10	90
17	-38																									100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	6	1	13	3	20	21	16	14