Kingston Frontenacs Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Beat Mississauga 7-5, playoff odds up 1.5 to 96.4%

27 points 12 9-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Kingston 7 Mississauga 5	+1.4		+0.2		+0.3
Ottawa 5 Niagara 2	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Belleville vs Mississauga	-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.0+0.2
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Kingston finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

100	-115						In		99.6	%	100										281	*
99		34	6		-	4	In		96.4		99		1								84	*
98		33	6		-	5	In		89.2		99		1								167	*
97		33	7		-	4	In		81.3		99	0	1								299	*
96		32	7		-	5	In		76.6		99	0	1								548	*
95		32	8		-	4	In		63.6		97	0	3								903	*
94		31	8		-	5	In		52.7		95	0	5								1,584	*
93		31	9		-	4	In		41.6		93	0	7								2,753	*
92		30	9		-	5	In		31.1		89	1	10								4,145	*
91		30	10		-	4	In		21.6		85	1	14								6,308	*
90		29	10		-	5	In		13.9		80	3	17								9,366	*
89		29	11		-	4	In		7.3		72	4	24	0							13,370	*
88		28	11		-	5	In		3.6		65	5	30	0							18,595	*
87		28	12		-	4	In		1.5		56	7	37	0							25,198	*
86		27	12		-	5	In		0.5		47	9	44	0							33,049	*
85		27	13		-	4	In		0.2		37	11	51	1	0						42,464	*
84		26	13		-	5	In		0.1		28	13	58	1	0						51,997	*
83		26	14		-	4	In		0.0		20	13	63	3	0						63,159	*
82		25	14		-	5	In		0.0		13	13	67	6	0	0					73,702	*
81		25	15		-	4	In		No		8	12	68	11	1	0					84,098	*
80		24	15		-	5	In		No		4	11	66	18	2	0	0				93,975	*
79		23	15		-	6	In		No		2	8	59	26	4	0	0				101,072	*
78		23	16		-	5	In		No		1	6	49	34	9	1	0	0			106,876	*
77		22	16		-	6	In		No		0	4	37	40	16	2	0	0			109,929	*
76		22	17		-	5	In		No		0	2	25	42	24	6	0	0			109,657	*
75		21	17		-	6	In		No		0	1	16	38	32	11	2	0			106,720	*
74		21	18		-	5	100.0	%	No		0	1	8	30	38	19	4	0	0		101,236	*
73		20	18		-	6	100.0		No			0	4	20	38	28	9	1	0		93,976	*
72		20	19		-	5	99.9		No			0	1	12	32	36	16	3	0	0	84,980	*
71		19	19		-	6	99.6		No			0	1	6	23	38	26	6	0	0	74,816	*
70		19	20		-	5	98.6		No			0	0	2	15	34	34	13	1	0	64,484	*
69		18	20		-	6	96.4		No			0	0	1	8	27	39	21	3	0	54,043	*
68		18	21		-	5	91.7		No			0	0	0	3	18	39	31	8	1	43,848	*
67		17	21		-	6	84.3		No				0	0	1	11	33	39	14	2	35,077	*
66		17	22		-	5	73.3		No					0	0	5	25	43	23	3	27,177	*
65		16	22		-	6	60.6		No						0	2	17	42	32	7	20,500	*
64		16	23		-	5	47.5		No						0	1	10	37	40	12	15,107	*
63		15	23		-	6	34.5		No							0	5	29	46	19	10,951	*
62		15	24		-	5	23.9		No							0	3	21	47	29	7,627	*
61		14	24		-	6	16.0		No							0	1	15	46	38	5,154	*
60		14	25		-	5	9.3		No								0	9	41	49	3,331	*
59		14	26		-	4	5.5		No								0	5	36	58	2,269	*
58		13	26		-	5	3.7		No									4	27	69	1,360	*
57		12	26		-	6	1.7		No									2	24	74	892	*
56		12	27		-	5	0.8		No									1	18	81	515	*
55		11	27		-	6	Out		No										10	90	268	*
54		11	28		-	5	Out		No										7	93	176	*
53		10	28		-	6	Out		No										5	95	78	*
52		10	29		-	5	Out		No										3	97	58	*
51		9	29		-	6	Out		No											100	23	*
50		10	31		-	3	Out		No										8	92	13	*
27	-49						Out		No											100	222	*

Total:							96.4	%	0.6	%	8	5	30	17	13	10	8	5	3	1	1,708,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kingston 7 Mississauga 5	-0.6
Ottawa 5 Niagara 2	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Belleville vs Mississauga	-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

101	-115						100
100		35	6		-	3	97	3
99		34	6		-	4	96	2			1
98		33	6		-	5	89	10			1
97		33	7		-	4	81	17	0		1
96		32	7		-	5	77	22	0		1
95		32	8		-	4	64	34	0		2	0
94		31	8		-	5	53	42	0		5	0
93		31	9		-	4	42	51	0		6	1
92		30	9		-	5	31	58	1	0	9	1
91		30	10		-	4	22	63	1	0	11	2
90		29	10		-	5	14	66	2	0	13	4
89		29	11		-	4	7	65	3	1	16	8	0
88		28	11		-	5	4	61	4	2	16	14	0
87		28	12		-	4	2	55	4	3	15	22	0	0
86		27	12		-	5	1	47	4	5	13	31	0	0
85		27	13		-	4	0	37	4	7	10	41	1	0	0
84		26	13		-	5	0	28	3	9	7	51	1	1	0
83		26	14		-	4	0	20	2	11	4	60	1	2	0	0
82		25	14		-	5	0	13	2	12	2	65	2	4	0	0	0
81		25	15		-	4		8	1	12	1	67	2	9	0	0	0	0
80		24	15		-	5		4	0	10	0	65	2	16	1	1	0	0	0
79		23	15		-	6		2	0	8	0	59	1	25	2	3	0	0	0
78		23	16		-	5		1	0	6	0	49	1	33	2	7	1	0	0		0
77		22	16		-	6		0	0	4	0	37	0	40	2	14	1	1	0	0	0
76		22	17		-	5		0	0	2		25	0	41	1	23	2	3	0	0	0
75		21	17		-	6		0		1		16	0	38	1	32	3	9	1	0	0	0
74		21	18		-	5		0		1		8	0	30	0	37	3	17	2	2	0	0	0
73		20	18		-	6				0		4		20	0	38	2	26	4	5	1	0	0
72		20	19		-	5				0		1		12	0	32	1	35	4	12	2	1	0	0
71		19	19		-	6				0		1		6	0	23	0	38	4	22	4	2	0	0
70		19	20		-	5				0		0		2	0	15	0	34	3	31	6	7	1	0	0
69		18	20		-	6				0		0		1		8	0	27	2	38	7	14	3	1	0
68		18	21		-	5				0		0		0		3	0	18	1	38	6	24	5	3	1	0
67		17	21		-	6						0		0		1		11	0	33	5	34	8	6	2	0
66		17	22		-	5								0		0		5	0	25	3	40	10	12	5	0
65		16	22		-	6										0		2	0	17	1	40	9	18	11	1
64		16	23		-	5										0		1		10	1	36	9	22	18	4
63		15	23		-	6												0		5	0	29	6	23	28	7
62		15	24		-	5												0		3	0	21	4	22	36	14
61		14	24		-	6												0		1	0	15	2	18	41	23
60		14	25		-	5														0		9	1	13	44	33
59		14	26		-	4														0		5	1	9	42	44
58		13	26		-	5																4	0	5	36	56
57		12	26		-	6																2	0	3	32	64
56		12	27		-	5																1		1	24	75
55		11	27		-	6																		1	14	85
54		11	28		-	5																			11	89
53		10	28		-	6																			8	92
52		10	29		-	5																			7	93
51		9	29		-	6																				100
50		10	31		-	3																			8	92
27	-49																									100

Total:							1	8	1	4	2	28	0	17	1	13	1	10	1	7	1	4	1	1	1	1