Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sudbury Wolves Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 93.3%

26 points 10 9-6

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ottawa 5 Niagara 2	+0.2
Oshawa 3 Barrie 5					-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	-2.1*-0.1-0.3+1.3+1.7+1.6		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1		-0.3-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Belleville vs Mississauga	-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sudbury finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

99	-112						In		Yes		100										231	*
98		34	5		-	4	In		78.1	%	97	3									32	*
97		34	6		-	3	In		78.2		98	2									55	*
96		34	7		-	2	In		75.0		97	3									124	*
95		32	6		-	5	In		66.5		94	6									245	*
94		32	7		-	4	In		50.2		93	7									418	*
93		32	8		-	3	In		46.9		93	7	0								734	*
92		31	8		-	4	In		28.2		87	12	1								1,388	*
91		30	8		-	5	In		18.8		82	17	1								2,283	*
90		30	9		-	4	In		14.2		77	21	2								3,731	*
89		29	9		-	5	In		7.6		70	26	4								5,593	*
88		29	10		-	4	In		3.4		62	33	5	0							8,369	*
87		28	10		-	5	In		1.5		52	40	8	0							12,278	*
86		28	11		-	4	In		0.5		43	46	11	0							17,407	*
85		27	11		-	5	In		0.2		34	49	16	1	0						23,625	*
84		27	12		-	4	In		0.0		25	53	20	2	0						31,421	*
83		26	12		-	5	In		0.0		17	53	26	4	0						40,397	*
82		26	13		-	4	In		No		11	51	30	8	0	0					50,915	*
81		25	13		-	5	In		No		6	46	34	13	1	0					61,369	*
80		25	14		-	4	In		No		3	40	34	20	3	0	0				72,762	*
79		24	14		-	5	In		No		1	32	32	28	6	0	0				83,136	*
78		24	15		-	4	In		No		1	24	27	35	12	2	0				92,982	*
77		23	15		-	5	In		No		0	17	21	38	20	4	0	0			101,258	*
76		23	16		-	4	In		No		0	11	14	37	29	8	1	0			107,294	*
75		22	16		-	5	100.0	%	No		0	7	8	32	36	15	2	0	0		110,447	*
74		22	17		-	4	100.0		No			4	4	24	38	24	6	0	0		111,563	*
73		21	17		-	5	100.0		No			2	2	15	36	33	11	1	0		108,994	*
72		21	18		-	4	99.9		No			1	1	8	29	38	19	3	0	0	103,595	*
71		20	18		-	5	99.5		No			0	0	4	20	39	29	7	0	0	95,985	*
70		20	19		-	4	98.4		No			0	0	1	12	34	37	14	2	0	86,897	*
69		19	19		-	5	96.0		No			0	0	0	6	25	41	23	4	0	76,036	*
68		18	19		-	6	91.2		No			0		0	3	17	39	32	8	1	65,632	*
67		18	20		-	5	83.9		No			0		0	1	9	33	40	15	1	54,979	*
66		18	21		-	4	73.6		No			0		0	0	5	25	43	23	3	44,749	*
65		17	21		-	5	61.1		No						0	2	17	42	32	7	35,529	*
64		17	22		-	4	48.2		No						0	1	10	37	40	11	27,321	*
63		16	22		-	5	35.8		No						0	0	5	30	46	18	21,031	*
62		16	23		-	4	25.0		No							0	3	22	48	27	15,130	*
61		15	23		-	5	17.2		No							0	1	16	46	37	10,778	*
60		15	24		-	4	10.2		No								1	10	43	46	7,619	*
59		14	24		-	5	6.7		No								0	7	37	56	5,169	*
58		14	25		-	4	3.4		No								0	3	31	66	3,328	*
57		13	25		-	5	1.8		No								0	2	25	73	2,112	*
56		13	26		-	4	1.1		No									1	19	80	1,420	*
55		12	26		-	5	0.8		No									1	13	87	844	*
54		12	27		-	4	Out		No										9	91	475	*
53		11	27		-	5	Out		No										5	95	265	*
52		11	28		-	4	Out		No										7	93	151	*
51		11	29		-	3	Out		No										2	98	92	*
50		10	29		-	4	Out		No										5	95	44	*
26	-49						Out		No											100	248	*

Total:							93.3	%	0.2	%	4	14	11	15	15	14	12	8	5	2	1,708,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oshawa 3 Barrie 5	+0.1
Kingston 7 Mississauga 5	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6
Belleville vs Mississauga	-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

99	-112						100
98		34	5		-	4	78	19	3
97		34	6		-	3	78	20	2
96		34	7		-	2	75	22	3
95		32	6		-	5	67	28	6
94		32	7		-	4	50	43	7
93		32	8		-	3	47	46	7		0
92		31	8		-	4	28	59	11	1	1
91		30	8		-	5	19	63	15	1	1	0
90		30	9		-	4	14	63	18	3	2	1
89		29	9		-	5	8	62	20	6	2	1
88		29	10		-	4	3	58	22	11	3	2	0
87		28	10		-	5	1	50	23	17	3	5	0	0
86		28	11		-	4	1	42	21	24	4	7	0	0
85		27	11		-	5	0	34	18	32	3	12	1	0	0
84		27	12		-	4	0	25	14	39	3	18	1	1	0	0
83		26	12		-	5	0	17	9	43	2	24	2	2	0	0
82		26	13		-	4		11	6	45	1	29	2	5	0	0	0
81		25	13		-	5		6	3	43	0	33	2	10	1	0	0
80		25	14		-	4		3	1	38	0	34	2	18	2	1	0	0	0
79		24	14		-	5		1	1	32	0	32	1	27	2	4	0	0	0	0
78		24	15		-	4		1	0	24	0	27	0	34	3	9	1	0	0	0
77		23	15		-	5		0	0	17		21	0	38	2	18	2	2	0	0	0
76		23	16		-	4		0	0	11		14	0	37	1	27	3	5	1	0	0
75		22	16		-	5		0	0	7		8	0	32	1	35	3	12	2	1	0	0	0
74		22	17		-	4				4		4	0	24	0	38	3	21	3	3	0	0	0
73		21	17		-	5				2		2		15	0	36	2	31	4	7	1	0	0
72		21	18		-	4				1		1		8	0	29	1	37	5	15	2	1	0	0
71		20	18		-	5				0		0		4	0	20	0	38	4	25	4	3	0	0	0
70		20	19		-	4				0		0		1		12	0	34	3	34	6	8	1	0	0	0
69		19	19		-	5				0		0		0		6	0	25	1	40	7	17	3	1	0	0
68		18	19		-	6				0				0		3	0	17	1	39	6	26	5	3	1	0
67		18	20		-	5				0				0		1		9	0	33	4	36	8	6	2	0
66		18	21		-	4				0				0		0		5	0	25	2	41	9	12	5	0
65		17	21		-	5										0		2	0	17	1	40	9	17	11	1
64		17	22		-	4										0		1		10	0	37	7	22	19	4
63		16	22		-	5										0		0		5	0	30	5	23	29	7
62		16	23		-	4												0		3	0	22	3	22	36	14
61		15	23		-	5												0		1		16	2	17	42	22
60		15	24		-	4														1		10	1	13	44	32
59		14	24		-	5														0		7	0	8	42	44
58		14	25		-	4														0		3	0	5	37	55
57		13	25		-	5														0		2	0	3	30	65
56		13	26		-	4																1	0	2	25	72
55		12	26		-	5																1		1	17	81
54		12	27		-	4																		0	13	87
53		11	27		-	5																		1	5	94
52		11	28		-	4																			9	91
51		11	29		-	3																			3	97
50		10	29		-	4																			5	95
26	-49																									100

Total:							0	4	2	13	0	11	0	15	1	15	1	13	1	10	2	7	1	2	2	1