SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.01 to 4.9%

0-0-2 .000

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+3.7-0.8-2.7		+1.0*-0.0-0.7
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.2*-0.2-0.3		+0.0-0.1-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.1*-0.1+0.2
Detroit vs Denver	+0.1*+0.2-0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland	-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.1*-0.1-0.1		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay			-0.1*-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-2.0*+0.5+4.5		-0.5+0.3+1.2
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.2*+0.5+0.5
San Diego vs Cleveland	+0.1*-0.3-0.2
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.1*+0.3-0.1		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants			-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Atlanta vs Houston			+0.0-0.0-0.1
Miami vs NY Jets			-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Baltimore finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14		14	-	0	-	0	In		95	5															126
13	.5	13	-	1	-	0	In		100																1
13		13	-	0	-	1	In		81	18	1														95
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		59	35	6														17
12		12	-	0	-	2	In		43	40	11	0	5	0											940
		11	-	2	-	1	In		33	67															3
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		31	44	11		15												103
11		11	-	0	-	3	99.8	%	11	37	28	3	17	4	0	0									5,762
		10	-	2	-	2	In			20	20		40	20											5
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3	98.7		5	25	27	5	29	9	1										629
10		10	-	0	-	4	91.7		1	10	29	9	21	21	7	1	0	0							24,927
		9	-	2	-	3	92.5			8	20	13	30	23	5	3									40
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4	77.9		0	3	17	11	16	31	18	4	1								2,453
9		9	-	0	-	5	46.0		0	1	9	11	6	20	26	19	7	2	0	0					73,889
		8	-	2	-	4	40.5			1	7	4	8	20	30	20	9	1							121
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5	17.4			0	2	6	1	9	25	31	20	6	1	0	0				6,361
8		8	-	0	-	6	5.6			0	1	3	0	2	9	21	27	22	11	3	1	0	0		162,718
		7	-	2	-	5	4.9					3		2	7	19	28	29	8	3	1				247
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6	0.7				0	1		0	1	6	19	30	26	13	3	0	0		12,425
		6	-	3	-	5	Out											60	20	20					5
7		7	-	0	-	7	0.2				0	0		0	0	1	6	16	26	26	16	6	1	0	266,579
		6	-	2	-	6	0.7					1			0	1	4	16	30	26	16	6	1		426
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7	0.0					0				0	0	3	13	29	32	17	4	0	17,513
		5	-	3	-	6	Out										20	20		40	20				5
6		6	-	0	-	8	0.0					0				0	0	1	4	15	29	31	17	3	328,552
		5	-	2	-	7	Out											0	4	15	26	32	19	3	521
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8	Out											0	0	3	16	37	34	9	18,594
		4	-	3	-	7	Out															57	29	14	7
5		5	-	0	-	9	Out											0	0	1	7	25	43	24	303,917
		4	-	2	-	8	Out													1	8	20	45	26	451
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out													0	1	12	44	43	13,895
		3	-	3	-	8	Out														25			75	4
4		4	-	0	-	10	Out													0	0	6	35	59	205,820
		3	-	2	-	9	Out															5	30	65	282
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out														0	1	22	76	7,477
		2	-	3	-	9	Out																50	50	4
3		3	-	0	-	11	Out														0	1	14	85	99,546
		2	-	2	-	10	Out																14	86	103
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out																7	93	2,667
2		2	-	0	-	12	Out															0	4	96	32,723
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																6	94	34
1	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																1	99	604
1		1	-	0	-	13	Out																1	99	6,462
		0	-	2	-	12	Out																50	50	2
0	.5	0	-	1	-	13	Out																	100	54
0		0	-	0	-	14	Out																0	100	699

Total:							4.9	%	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	6	7	8	11	14	18	22	1,597,808

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	-1.9+0.3+1.4
Detroit vs Denver	+0.1+0.1-0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.0+0.2+0.1
Seattle vs Chicago	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Miami vs Buffalo	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland	-0.0*+0.1+0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.0*+0.1+0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	+0.0*+0.1-0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Dallas vs Atlanta	-0.0+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	+1.1-0.2-2.3
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	+0.0+0.2-0.0
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+0.1+0.1-0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.1+0.1+0.1
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Detroit	-0.0*+0.2+0.1
New Orleans vs Dallas	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland	+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs NY Jets	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Washington vs Philadelphia	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14		14	-	0	-	0	94	2	5
13	.5	13	-	1	-	0	100
13		13	-	0	-	1	46	35	17	1	1
12	.5	12	-	1	-	1	41	18	35		6
12		12	-	0	-	2	9	34	28	12	10	1	0		4	0	0
		11	-	2	-	1		33	67
11	.5	11	-	1	-	2	5	26	37	7	11				13	2
11		11	-	0	-	3	0	11	8	29	19	9	2	0	12	5	4	0	0	0
		10	-	2	-	2			20		20				40		20
10	.5	10	-	1	-	3	0	5	3	22	18	8	4	1	21	8	8	0	1
10		10	-	0	-	4	0	1	0	10	6	22	6	3	7	14	17	4	7	1	0
		9	-	2	-	3				8		20	10	3	3	28	23		8
9	.5	9	-	1	-	4		0	0	3	3	14	6	5	4	12	21	10	17	4	1	0
9		9	-	0	-	5		0		1	0	8	3	8	0	5	6	15	26	19	7	2	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4				1		7	1	3		8	9	11	29	18	10	2	1
8	.5	8	-	1	-	5				0	0	2	1	5		1	1	8	12	24	24	15	6	1	0
8		8	-	0	-	6				0	0	1	0	3		0	0	2	3	10	20	24	19	11	5	2	0	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5								3				2	2	10	19	29	18	11	4	2	0
7	.5	7	-	1	-	6						0	0	1				0	0	0	1	5	12	21	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5																		20	20	60
7		7	-	0	-	7						0	0	0				0	0	0	0	1	3	9	16	21	20	15	9	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6								1							0	0	5	7	16	22	18	15	11	4	1	1
6	.5	6	-	1	-	7								0										0	0	2	7	16	24	24	17	8	2	0	0
		5	-	3	-	6																					40		20	20	20
6		6	-	0	-	8								0										0	0	0	2	6	13	20	22	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7																				0	1	6	15	22	21	16	12	5	1	0
5	.5	5	-	1	-	8																					0	0	0	2	8	18	26	25	14	5	1	0
		4	-	3	-	7																										29	14	14	43
5		5	-	0	-	9																					0	0	0	1	3	9	18	25	23	15	6	1
		4	-	2	-	8																							0	1	3	7	17	27	21	15	7	2
4	.5	4	-	1	-	9																									0	0	2	10	25	33	23	7
		3	-	3	-	8																													50	25		25
4		4	-	0	-	10																									0	0	1	5	15	30	33	17
		3	-	2	-	9																											1	4	12	33	33	17
3	.5	3	-	1	-	10																											0	0	2	15	41	42
		2	-	3	-	9																															50	50
3		3	-	0	-	11																											0	0	1	9	34	56
		2	-	2	-	10																													1	7	26	66
2	.5	2	-	1	-	11																														1	17	81
2		2	-	0	-	12																													0	1	13	87
		1	-	2	-	11																															12	88
1	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															4	96
1		1	-	0	-	13																														0	2	98
		0	-	2	-	12																															50	50
0	.5	0	-	1	-	13																																100
0		0	-	0	-	14																															0	100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	6	6	6	7	7	8	8	8