SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Oakland Raiders Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.03 to 22%

1-0-1 .500

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cleveland vs Oakland	-6.1*+1.1+9.9		-0.8+0.2+1.3
Detroit vs Denver	+1.2*+0.0-0.9		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.5*+0.1-1.2		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.6*-0.5-1.0		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.3*-0.2+0.9		-0.0*-0.0+0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.3*-0.7-0.5		+0.0*-0.1-0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.2*+0.5+0.4		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.2*+0.4-0.2
Tennessee vs Indianapolis			+0.0*+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago vs Oakland	-5.9*-0.9+6.2		-0.7+0.0+0.8
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.7*+1.0+1.5		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	+0.3*-0.1-0.7		+0.0+0.0-0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.2*-0.6+0.5		-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.2*-0.2+0.5
San Diego vs Cleveland	-0.2*-0.1+0.3
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+0.1*-0.5-0.1		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Houston			+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Miami vs NY Jets			-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Oakland finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

15		14	-	0	-	0	In		99	1															167
14	.5	13	-	1	-	0	In		100																5
14		13	-	0	-	1	In		94	5	0		0												459
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		96	2			2												53
13		12	-	0	-	2	In		79	18	1		2												3,840
		11	-	2	-	1	In		67	33															3
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		72	21	3		3												374
12		11	-	0	-	3	In		46	36	8	0	10	0											18,392
		10	-	2	-	2	In		46	39	7		7												28
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		31	39	12	0	18	1											1,695
11		10	-	0	-	4	99.7	%	13	32	24	3	25	4	0	0									60,034
		9	-	2	-	3	In		15	38	21	1	23	3											80
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	98.9		5	22	25	4	32	11	1	0									5,173
		8	-	3	-	3	In			50	25			25											4
10		9	-	0	-	5	91.3		1	8	22	10	27	23	7	1	0	0							139,793
		8	-	2	-	4	96.3		1	8	24	13	23	27	3	0									215
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5	74.4		0	2	13	9	18	33	20	5	1	0							10,615
		7	-	3	-	4	83.3				17			67		17									6
9		8	-	0	-	6	44.2		0	0	5	9	7	23	28	19	7	2	0	0	0				242,150
		7	-	2	-	5	44.2				6	9	8	22	30	17	8	1							337
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6	15.4			0	1	4	1	9	25	32	20	6	1	0	0				16,381
		6	-	3	-	5	37.5				13	25			38	13	13								8
8		7	-	0	-	7	4.9			0	0	2	0	2	10	22	28	22	10	3	0	0	0		315,551
		6	-	2	-	6	5.6					2	0	3	10	24	30	20	8	3					533
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7	0.5				0	0		0	1	7	21	32	26	11	2	0			18,458
		5	-	3	-	6	Out									10		40	30	20					10
7		6	-	0	-	8	0.1				0	0	0	0	0	2	8	19	28	25	14	4	1	0	311,148
		5	-	2	-	7	0.2					0			1	1	7	22	28	25	11	4	1		453
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8	Out									0	1	5	16	32	31	13	2	0	15,439
		4	-	3	-	7	Out												20	30	20	20	10		10
6		5	-	0	-	9	0.0					0				0	0	1	7	20	32	27	11	2	229,502
		4	-	2	-	8	Out										0	0	6	19	35	29	10	1	308
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out											0	1	5	22	38	27	7	9,558
		3	-	3	-	8	Out														20	40	40		5
5		4	-	0	-	10	Out											0	0	2	12	32	38	16	126,213
		3	-	2	-	9	Out													3	10	38	34	15	157
		2	-	4	-	8	Out																100		1
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out													0	3	18	45	34	4,069
		2	-	3	-	9	Out																	100	1
4		3	-	0	-	11	Out													0	1	11	40	48	49,507
		2	-	2	-	10	Out															10	47	43	49
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out														0	4	28	68	1,225
		1	-	3	-	10	Out																	100	1
3		2	-	0	-	12	Out														0	2	21	77	13,207
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																25	75	8
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																8	92	211
2		1	-	0	-	13	Out															0	6	94	2,086
1	.5	0	-	1	-	13	Out																	100	14
1		0	-	0	-	14	Out																1	99	272

Total:							22.0	%	1	3	4	3	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	4	1,597,808

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cleveland vs Oakland	+1.4-0.1-2.3
Detroit vs Denver	-0.1+0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.0+0.1+0.1
Seattle vs Chicago	+0.0-0.1-0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.0-0.0+0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.0*+0.2-0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Arizona vs San Francisco	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs Oakland	+1.8+0.3-1.8
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.1+0.1-0.1
Arizona vs St. Louis	-0.0+0.1+0.1
Washington vs Philadelphia	*+0.0+0.1-0.0
Seattle vs Detroit	+0.0-0.0-0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.0-0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
San Diego vs Cleveland	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15		14	-	0	-	0	99		1
14	.5	13	-	1	-	0	100
14		13	-	0	-	1	81	13	5		0				0
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	81	15	2						2
13		12	-	0	-	2	48	31	17	1	1				2	0
		11	-	2	-	1	67		33
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	41	32	19	2	3				3
12		11	-	0	-	3	12	34	26	11	8	0	0		9	1	0	0
		10	-	2	-	2	4	43	18	21	7				7
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	6	24	23	16	11	1	0		17	1	1
11		10	-	0	-	4	1	12	9	23	16	7	3	0	19	6	4	0	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3	1	14	16	21	15	6	1		15	8	3
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	0	5	3	19	15	10	4	0	22	10	11	0	1	0
		8	-	3	-	3			25	25	25						25
10		9	-	0	-	5	0	1	0	8	6	17	7	3	10	17	18	5	8	1	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4		1	0	7	4	20	8	4	8	15	22	5	3	0
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5		0		2	2	11	5	4	4	14	22	10	20	5	1	0
		7	-	3	-	4						17					33	33		17
9		8	-	0	-	6		0	0	0	0	5	3	6	1	7	8	15	30	17	7	2	0	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5						6	3	6	1	7	7	15	30	15	9	1	0
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6				0	0	1	1	3	0	1	1	8	11	25	26	15	6	1	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5						13		25					13	25	25
8		7	-	0	-	7				0		0	0	2	0	0	0	2	4	13	21	22	17	10	5	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6							0	2		0		3	4	13	20	22	19	12	3	2	0	0
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7						0	0	0				0	0	0	1	5	13	23	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	6																10		20	30	20	10	10
7		6	-	0	-	8						0	0	0		0		0	0	0	0	1	5	11	17	21	19	14	8	3	1	0	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7								0							1	1	4	11	17	22	19	12	6	5	2
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8																		0	1	3	8	18	24	23	14	6	2	0	0	0
		4	-	3	-	7																					10	10	40	30	10
6		5	-	0	-	9								0									0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	21	16	10	4	1	0	0	0
		4	-	2	-	8																				0	2	8	12	19	22	16	12	5	2
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9																						0	1	3	10	20	26	23	12	4	1	0
		3	-	3	-	8																										40	20	40
5		4	-	0	-	10																					0	0	0	1	4	11	19	25	22	13	4	1
		3	-	2	-	9																							1		3	10	22	22	25	13	4
		2	-	4	-	8																												100
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10																									0	0	4	11	25	32	22	6
		2	-	3	-	9																														100
4		3	-	0	-	11																									0	0	1	6	17	31	32	14
		2	-	2	-	10																												6	16	29	35	14
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11																												0	3	15	40	41
		1	-	3	-	10																																100
3		2	-	0	-	12																												0	1	9	35	54
		1	-	2	-	11																															13	88
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12																														2	18	80
2		1	-	0	-	13																														1	13	86
1	.5	0	-	1	-	13																																100
1		0	-	0	-	14																															2	98

Total:							0	1	1	2	1	3	1	2	2	3	3	3	6	6	6	5	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1