Green Bay Packers Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.4 to 81.7%
2-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Green Bay vs Kansas City+3.5-2.1-7.6
+0.3-0.2-0.7
Minnesota vs San Diego-1.4*-0.1+2.3
-0.1+0.0+0.2
Detroit vs Denver-0.9*+0.8+0.6
-0.1*+0.1+0.0
Seattle vs Chicago+0.3*-0.6-0.6
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh-0.3*+0.5+0.4
Houston vs Tampa Bay+0.3*-0.3-0.3
Dallas vs Atlanta+0.2*-0.2-0.4
Carolina vs New Orleans-0.1*-0.8+0.4
Arizona vs San Francisco+0.1*+0.3-0.3
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
San Francisco vs Green Bay-6.4*+0.7+6.7
-0.6*+0.0+0.7
Denver vs Minnesota+1.2*-0.6-2.6
+0.1*-0.0-0.2
Seattle vs Detroit+0.5*+0.4-0.9
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Chicago vs Oakland-0.4*+0.3+0.4
Atlanta vs Houston-0.2*+0.6+0.5
Tampa Bay vs Carolina-0.2*+0.3+0.2
Arizona vs St. Louis+0.1*+0.4-0.3
-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Green Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-D-Lplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
15.5-16In100612*
1513-0-1In99105,278
14.512-1-1In991507
1412-0-2In9550028,505
11-2-1In10026
13.511-1-2In909002,378
10-3-1In1001
1311-0-3In782020091,205
10-2-2In821884
12.510-1-3In66304007,124
9-3-2In50502
1210-0-4In454212110196,423
9-2-3In47401110251
11.59-1-4In27472132013,468
8-3-3In50504
119-0-5100.0%1339359410298,179
8-2-4In183932741398
10.58-1-599.9326431862018,593
7-3-4In5017336
108-0-698.3113393186100332,744
7-2-598.81163931851484
6-4-4In1001
9.57-1-694.103274481251018,169
6-3-5In141457147
97-0-779.70115455141361000276,757
6-2-678.8012475141353410
8.56-1-755.90440110211661013,096
5-3-6In2550254
86-0-835.702290515221782000170,899
5-2-731.4281314252261255
7.55-1-815.701501518282292006,709
4-3-750.050502
75-0-98.30800281927221130077,802
4-2-88.281820302283110
6.54-1-91.7201518312813302,583
64-0-100.910028212925123026,311
3-2-9Out815842158426
5.53-1-100.50003143532121659
53-0-110.00001925352376,365
2-2-10Out2550254
4.52-1-11Out19244026111
42-0-12Out041942351,037
3.51-1-12Out43577
31-0-13Out2277084
20-0-14Out2791128
Total:81.7%151720214554322110001,597,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24100.0*Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Green Bay vs Kansas City-0.8+0.4+1.7
Minnesota vs San Diego+0.2-0.0-0.3
Carolina vs New Orleans+0.0+0.1-0.1
Detroit vs Denver+0.1*-0.1-0.0
Cleveland vs Oakland+0.0+0.1-0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Chicago-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Tennessee vs Indianapolis+0.0*+0.1-0.0
New England vs Jacksonville+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
San Francisco vs Green Bay+1.3-0.0-1.4
Denver vs Minnesota-0.2*+0.1+0.3
New Orleans vs Dallas-0.1+0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Detroit-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Atlanta vs Houston+0.0-0.0-0.1
Arizona vs St. Louis+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Chicago vs Oakland+0.0*-0.1-0.0
San Diego vs Cleveland-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1513-0-199110
14.512-1-19901
1412-0-28965000
11-2-1100
13.511-1-28199000
10-3-1100
1311-0-360182002000
10-2-2641818
12.510-1-34126281400
9-3-25050
1210-0-4202436612010100
9-2-3202835511010
11.59-1-462133142113200
8-3-35050
119-0-521120193059031100
8-2-4216211826660411
10.58-1-503521291418142200
7-3-4501733
108-0-601111192028444512000
7-2-512131820283444110
6-4-4100
9.57-1-6003423311316755100
6-3-51414431414
97-0-70012132619146810631000
6-2-6011226211459974110
8.56-1-70041129010105121393100
5-3-625252525
86-0-8002622000526111313106310000
5-2-77201335101413984110
7.55-1-80114010139182217103100
4-3-75050
75-0-9008000001261116181612631000
4-2-817541017171712622
6.54-1-92012815242415721
64-0-10010001491621211583100
3-2-92315311515
5.53-1-10012717302215500
53-0-110000261423271981
2-2-1025252525
4.52-1-111172536237
42-0-1200410293721
3.51-1-127129
31-0-1352768
20-0-1411989
Total:97107128137222222222111111110000000