Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.07 to 78.9%
2-0-0   1.000

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Baltimore vs Cincinnati-9.2*+0.2+6.7
-0.9+0.0+0.6
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh+1.0*+0.0-1.6
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland-0.7*-0.3+1.1
-0.1+0.0+0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia-0.2*+1.3+0.7
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City+0.2*-0.3-0.5
New England vs Jacksonville-0.2*+1.2+0.4
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego+0.2*-1.1-0.4
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Detroit vs Denver+0.2*+0.2-0.2
+0.1*+0.0-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cincinnati vs Kansas City+4.9-1.9-10.9
+0.5-0.2-1.0
San Diego vs Cleveland+0.7*-0.0-1.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore-0.5*+0.4+1.2
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants-0.2*+0.6+0.5
Chicago vs Oakland+0.2*-0.2-0.3
Denver vs Minnesota-0.1*+0.3+0.3
-0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-D-Lplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
15.5-16In100883*
1513-0-1In99107,716
12-2-0In1002
14.512-1-1In991661
1412-0-2In9640037,871
11-2-1In94631
13.511-1-2In928003,099
1311-0-3In81181000112,925
10-2-2In8911121
12.510-1-3In71262008,582
9-3-2In33673
1210-0-4In51397020225,574
9-2-3In533961274
11.59-1-4In34481414015,242
8-3-3In67333
119-0-599.9%17432739200318,767
8-2-499.81947262610473
10.58-1-599.653240711400018,861
7-3-4In83154813
108-0-695.7217381314124100328,162
7-2-595.60163917121041499
6-4-4In50502
9.57-1-686.204322210181130017,043
6-3-587.5136313138
97-0-761.801162061822124100252,416
6-2-664.92182051922931385
8.56-1-733.106191721251551011,713
5-3-666.767333
86-0-814.1021003132425166100143,813
5-2-711.51731130261462227
7.55-1-84.30401720312310205,470
75-0-91.301002102228221030060,657
4-2-82.5331424242291179
6.54-1-90.201515333014301,855
64-0-100.0001720312711218,836
3-2-9Out44263922423
5.53-1-10Out041938309427
53-0-11Out002103040194,185
2-2-10Out1001
4.52-1-11Out619354181
42-0-12Out163559632
1-2-11Out1001
3.51-1-12Out307010
31-0-13Out79355
2.50-1-13Out1001
20-0-14Out298123
Total:78.9%20201886664332111001,597,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Lottery seed
Baltimore vs Cincinnati+1.7-0.1-1.3
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh-0.1*-0.0+0.2
Cleveland vs Oakland+0.1*-0.0-0.2
NY Jets vs Philadelphia+0.0*-0.2-0.1
Detroit vs Denver-0.1-0.0+0.0
Miami vs Buffalo+0.0*+0.1-0.0
New England vs Jacksonville+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Carolina vs New Orleans+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs Kansas City-0.9+0.3+2.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore+0.1-0.1-0.2
San Diego vs Cleveland-0.1*+0.0+0.2
Arizona vs St. Louis+0.0+0.1-0.0
Denver vs Minnesota+0.0-0.1-0.1
Miami vs NY Jets-0.0+0.1+0.0
Seattle vs Detroit-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Atlanta vs Houston+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1614-0-01000
15.513-1-0100
1513-0-198110
12-2-0100
14.512-1-19721
1412-0-28874000
11-2-18766
13.511-1-280128000
1311-0-35823171100000
10-2-2603011
12.510-1-33932251200
9-3-23367
1210-0-419323187000200
9-2-3203331861
11.59-1-4528301813110300
8-3-36733
119-0-5215182521630712000
8-2-4217222420624110
10.58-1-5055272317708340000
7-3-483131238
108-0-6021151523113871113100
7-2-502141525134769131
6-4-45050
9.57-1-60044271392813510300
6-3-51350131313
97-0-700111591115991114931000
6-2-62217119151281512621
8.56-1-700641611781920136100
5-3-66733
86-0-80021800021391619181262100
5-2-7116304111422231031
7.55-1-8004001411202520104100
75-0-90010001371318211711520000
4-2-8311381120221886
6.54-1-900036142424187210
64-0-1000012612192220125100
3-2-949172226174
5.53-1-10162125271361
53-0-11001311202724113
2-2-10100
4.52-1-111263328226
42-0-12129214028
1-2-11100
3.51-1-12203050
31-0-13272467
2.50-1-13100
20-0-142989
Total:101010109953434233222211111100000000