SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Carolina Panthers Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.5 to 77.1%

2-0-0 1.000

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	+0.4		+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Carolina vs New Orleans	+4.2*-1.4-13.2		+0.4-0.2-1.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	+1.1*+0.8-1.1		+0.1+0.1-0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-0.5*+0.8+0.8		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego	-0.5*+0.1+0.8
Dallas vs Atlanta	+0.4*-0.2-0.6		+0.1-0.0-0.2
Arizona vs San Francisco	+0.2*+0.9-0.5
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-0.2*+0.3+0.5
Detroit vs Denver	-0.3*+0.6+0.2		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia			*+0.0-0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	-8.8+4.3+9.2		-0.8+0.3+0.8
Atlanta vs Houston	-0.4*+1.4+1.2		-0.1+0.1+0.2
San Francisco vs Green Bay	-0.6*+0.6+0.6
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.3*-0.5-0.8		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis	+0.3*+0.2-0.6
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.3*+0.7-0.5
Chicago vs Oakland	-0.2*+1.3+0.2		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Washington vs Philadelphia	-0.1*-0.2+0.2
New Orleans vs Dallas	-0.2*-0.3+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Carolina finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

16		14	-	0	-	0	In		100	0															932
15	.5	13	-	1	-	0	In		100																72
15		13	-	0	-	1	In		99	1															8,401
		12	-	2	-	0	In		100																5
14	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		98	2															728
14		12	-	0	-	2	In		95	5	0		1												40,543
		11	-	2	-	1	In		86	14															29
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		91	7	0		1												3,322
13		11	-	0	-	3	In		78	17	1	0	4	0											118,594
		10	-	2	-	2	In		79	16	3		2												121
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		65	25	2	0	7												8,787
		9	-	3	-	2	In		100																5
12		10	-	0	-	4	In		42	34	8	1	15	0											230,709
		9	-	2	-	3	In		43	35	8	1	13												275
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	In		28	35	12	1	23	1											15,115
		8	-	3	-	3	In		18	36	36		9												11
11		9	-	0	-	5	99.9	%	10	26	20	5	35	4	0	0									319,637
		8	-	2	-	4	In		9	30	20	4	33	4											435
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	99.7		4	17	21	7	44	7	0										18,838
		7	-	3	-	4	In		27	9	9		55												11
10		8	-	0	-	6	94.5		0	5	14	11	39	24	5	0	0	0							325,191
		7	-	2	-	5	94.7		0	5	13	13	39	25	5	1									486
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6	88.5		0	2	8	10	35	34	10	1	0								16,955
		6	-	3	-	5	In			17		17		67											6
9		7	-	0	-	7	52.6		0	0	2	7	12	31	29	14	4	0	0						247,284
		6	-	2	-	6	53.5			0	1	8	9	34	29	14	3	0							434
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7	32.8			0	0	4	5	24	35	23	8	1	0						11,164
		5	-	3	-	6	33.3					11	11	11	22	44									9
8		6	-	0	-	8	5.9				0	1	0	4	14	27	29	17	6	1	0	0			139,466
		5	-	2	-	7	3.9					0	0	3	12	34	25	18	7			0			229
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8	1.3					0	0	1	7	21	31	26	11	3	0				5,509
		4	-	3	-	7	Out										100								1
7		5	-	0	-	9	0.1					0	0	0	0	2	10	23	30	22	9	2	0	0	58,790
		4	-	2	-	8	Out									3	5	18	38	26	7	3			76
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out									1	4	14	29	31	15	5	1		1,917
		3	-	3	-	8	Out											100							1
6		4	-	0	-	10	Out									0	0	1	7	21	32	27	10	2	18,317
		3	-	2	-	9	Out												7	27	40	20	7		30
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out											1	3	14	31	33	15	3	494
5		3	-	0	-	11	Out												0	2	9	29	41	20	4,020
		2	-	2	-	10	Out																100		2
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out														4	9	52	35	69
4		2	-	0	-	12	Out														0	4	35	61	606
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																	100	1
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																29	71	7
3		1	-	0	-	13	Out																12	88	50
2	-2.5						Out																	100	124	*

Total:							77.1	%	18	13	9	5	21	11	7	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	1,597,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.7+0.5+2.3
Dallas vs Atlanta	-0.2+0.0+0.3
Houston vs Tampa Bay	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Detroit vs Denver	+0.0-0.2-0.0
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	+0.0+0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
New England vs Jacksonville	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	+1.6-0.5-1.7
Atlanta vs Houston	+0.1-0.3-0.4
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.0+0.2+0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Seattle vs Detroit	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.0*-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		14	-	0	-	0	100		0
15	.5	13	-	1	-	0	100
15		13	-	0	-	1	98	1	1
		12	-	2	-	0	100
14	.5	12	-	1	-	1	95	3	2
14		12	-	0	-	2	88	7	5	0	0				1
		11	-	2	-	1	79	7	14
13	.5	11	-	1	-	2	80	11	7	0	0				1
13		11	-	0	-	3	58	19	17	0	1		0		4	0	0
		10	-	2	-	2	64	16	16		3				2
12	.5	10	-	1	-	3	40	26	24	1	2		0		7	0
		9	-	3	-	2	40	60
12		10	-	0	-	4	18	24	28	5	8	0	1		15	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3	14	28	28	7	8		1		13	0
11	.5	9	-	1	-	4	6	22	25	11	11	0	1		22	2	1
		8	-	3	-	3		18	18	18	36					9
11		9	-	0	-	5	1	9	13	14	17	3	4	0	29	6	4	0	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4	1	9	16	14	17	2	4		28	4	4
10	.5	8	-	1	-	5	0	4	4	14	14	7	6	0	28	16	7	0	0
		7	-	3	-	4		27		9	9				45	9
10		8	-	0	-	6	0	0	1	5	7	8	10	2	18	21	20	4	5	1	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5		0	0	4	6	7	11	2	16	23	21	3	5	0
9	.5	7	-	1	-	6		0		2	1	7	7	3	6	29	20	14	9	2	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5				17			17				33	33
9		7	-	0	-	7		0		0	0	2	4	4	1	11	12	19	14	15	11	5	2	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6				0		1	4	4	1	8	14	21	16	12	10	6	1	0
8	.5	6	-	1	-	7				0		0	1	3		5	1	23	9	19	20	13	5	1	0
		5	-	3	-	6							11			11		11	11	22	22	11
8		6	-	0	-	8						0	0	1		0	0	4	1	4	8	14	19	20	15	8	3	1	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7								0		0		3	2	4	11	17	15	18	17	7	3	1
7	.5	5	-	1	-	8								0		0		1		0	1	5	13	20	25	20	10	4	1	0	0
		4	-	3	-	7																			100
7		5	-	0	-	9							0	0		0		0		0	0	0	1	3	6	11	17	20	19	13	6	2	0	0	0
		4	-	2	-	8																		1	5	12	18	17	18	17	5	4	1
6	.5	4	-	1	-	9																		0	0	2	7	14	21	26	17	9	3	1
		3	-	3	-	8																					100
6		4	-	0	-	10																			0	0	0	1	4	9	17	22	21	15	6	2	0	0
		3	-	2	-	9																							3	10	17	33	20	10	7
5	.5	3	-	1	-	10																							1	1	5	17	28	24	15	6	1
5		3	-	0	-	11																							0	0	1	3	8	18	26	26	15	4
		2	-	2	-	10																													50	50
4	.5	2	-	1	-	11																											4	6	20	17	43	9
4		2	-	0	-	12																												0	5	20	40	34
		1	-	2	-	11																																100
3	.5	1	-	1	-	12																													14	14		71
3		1	-	0	-	13																														4	22	74
2	.5	0	-	1	-	13																																100
2		0	-	0	-	14																															7	93

Total:							10	7	9	5	6	3	4	1	13	8	7	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0