Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie AA Title Chances 2021

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Chance will win title												Libertadores			Chance will finish season at seed																						Serie B
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Flamengo	37	1	12	-	1	-	5	18	44.0	%	+11.6	99.2	%	+1.7	44	28	15	8	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.1	+0.46	0.0	%		3	.606	Clube de Regatas do Flamengo
Atletico-MG	38		12	-	2	-	5	12	34.6		-6.2	98.9		+0.1	35	30	18	10	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.3	-0.10	0.0			2	.602	Clube Atletico Mineiro
Palmeiras	35		11	-	2	-	6	8	11.6		-2.6	93.9		+0.4	12	19	25	20	12	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.5	-0.07	0.0			5	.565	Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
Bragantino	34		9	-	7	-	3	10	6.6		-1.7	88.9		+0.6	7	13	21	23	17	9	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.1	-0.05	0.0		-0.0	1	.553	Clube Atletico Bragantino

Fortaleza	32		9	-	5	-	5	9	2.7		-0.8	77.3		+1.0	3	7	13	20	21	13	8	5	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.2		0.1		-0.0	4	.528	Fortaleza Esporte Clube
Corinthians	27		7	-	6	-	6	1	0.1		-0.0	26.5		+1.1	0	1	2	4	8	12	12	11	10	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	9.0	+0.07	2.2		-0.0	9	.467	Sport Club Corinthians Paulista

Ceara	27		6	-	9	-	4	1	0.1		-0.0	24.2		+1.0	0	0	2	4	7	11	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	3	2	2	1	0	0	9.2	+0.08	2.5		-0.0	8	.467	Ceara Sporting Club
Athletico-PR	26		8	-	2	-	9	2	0.1		-0.2	20.0		-9.6	0	0	1	3	6	9	11	11	10	9	9	8	7	5	4	3	2	1	0	0	9.7	-1.01	3.4		+1.5	11	.454	Clube Athletico Paranaense
Internacional	26		6	-	8	-	5	1	0.1		-0.0	17.7		+0.8	0	0	1	3	5	9	10	10	10	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	2	1	0	0	10.0	+0.08	4.2		-0.1	7	.454	Sport Club Internacional
Juventude	24	1	6	-	6	-	6	-4	0.1		-0.0	15.3		+0.7	0	0	1	2	5	7	9	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	6	4	3	2	1	0	10.5	+0.08	5.9		-0.1	10	.446	Esporte Clube Juventude
Atletico-GO	25		6	-	7	-	6	-3	0.0		-0.0	12.3		+0.6	0	0	1	2	4	6	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	5	4	2	1	0	10.9	+0.08	6.8		-0.1	6	.442	Atletico Clube Goianiense
Bahia	24		7	-	3	-	9	-6	0.0		-0.0	8.4		+0.4	0	0	0	1	2	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	7	5	3	1	0	11.7	+0.07	9.9		-0.1	15	.430	Esporte Clube Bahia
Cuiaba	24		5	-	9	-	5	0	0.0		-0.0	7.0		+0.4	0	0	0	1	2	4	5	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	4	2	0	12.0	+0.07	12.0		-0.2	12	.430	Cuiaba Esporte Clube
Santos	23		5	-	8	-	6	-4	0.0		-0.0	4.4		+0.3	0	0	0	0	1	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	10	10	10	8	6	3	0	12.9	+0.06	17.7		-0.1	14	.418	Santos Futebol Clube
Sao Paulo	22		5	-	7	-	7	-6	0.0		-0.0	2.8		+0.2	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	11	11	9	4	0	13.7	+0.06	24.4		-0.3	13	.405	Sao Paulo Futebol Clube
America-MG	21		5	-	6	-	8	-6	0.0		-0.0	1.6		+0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	8	10	11	13	13	12	7	1	14.6	+0.04	33.6		-0.2	17	.393	America Futebol Clube-MG

Gremio	19	1	5	-	4	-	9	-5	0.0			1.1		+0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	8	10	13	15	16	10	1	15.2	+0.02	42.2			16	.385	Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
Fluminense	18	1	4	-	6	-	8	-7	0.0		-0.0	0.6		+0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	7	9	12	16	20	15	2	15.9	+0.03	52.1		-0.3	18	.373	Fluminense Football Club
Sport Recife	16		3	-	7	-	9	-7	0.0		-0.0	0.0		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	4	6	10	19	44	10	17.9	+0.01	83.6		-0.1	19	.332	Sport Club do Recife
Chapecoense	10		1	-	7	-	11	-14	0.0			0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	11	85	19.8		99.5		-0.0	20	.258	Associacao Chapecoense de Futebol

Big Games

Who should we root for? Explain

Week of 9/5
Atletico-MG 0 Gremio 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+2.9
Atletico-MG	-10.5		-0.5		+0.1		-0.3
Palmeiras	+3.6
Bragantino	+2.5
Fortaleza	+1.2
Juventude					+1.0
Bahia					+1.4
Santos					+1.2
Sao Paulo					+1.1
America-MG					+2.1
Gremio	+0.1		+0.4		-13.4		+0.9
Fluminense					+1.8
Sport Recife					+1.6

Athletico-PR 0 Flamengo 1
1:11 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+6.9		+1.3				+0.3
Atletico-MG	-3.7
Palmeiras	-1.5		+0.2
Bragantino	-1.0		+0.4
Fortaleza	-0.5		+0.7
Corinthians			+0.7
Ceara			+0.6
Athletico-PR			-6.2		+0.8		-0.6
Internacional			+0.5

Ceara 1 Palmeiras 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+1.1		-0.2
Atletico-MG	+3.0
Palmeiras	-5.5		-2.1				-0.4
Bragantino	+0.9		-0.3
Corinthians			-0.9
Ceara			+6.2		-3.1		+1.0

Flamengo 1 Atletico-GO 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+4.1		+2.4				+0.3
Atletico-MG	-2.1
Palmeiras	-1.0
Bragantino	-0.6
Corinthians			+0.5
Atletico-GO			-4.7		+1.2		-0.6

Internacional 1 Bragantino 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+0.8
Atletico-MG	+1.9
Palmeiras	+0.9
Bragantino	-3.9		-3.5				-0.4
Internacional			+4.9		-4.5		+1.1

Bahia 1 Fortaleza 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-MG	+0.9
Fortaleza	-2.1		-5.9				-0.5
Bahia			+2.7		-7.5		+1.0
America-MG					+1.1
Gremio					+1.1
Fluminense					+0.9
Sport Recife					+1.0

Corinthians 0 Juventude 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians			-9.4		+0.6		-0.8
Athletico-PR			+0.8
Juventude			+4.5		-5.2		+1.0
Atletico-GO			+0.8
America-MG					+0.7

Athletico-PR 1 Sport Recife 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians			-1.0
Athletico-PR			+5.3		-1.9		+0.7
Atletico-GO			-0.6
Bahia					-0.5
America-MG					-0.6
Gremio					-0.6
Fluminense					-0.6
Sport Recife	No				+6.0		-0.4

Sao Paulo 0 America-MG 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo			-2.5		+6.0		-0.9
America-MG			+0.5		-12.0		+0.9
Gremio					+0.9
Fluminense					+0.9

Cuiaba 0 Santos 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cuiaba			-1.5		+0.8		-0.3
Santos			-0.9		+0.7		-0.2

Chapecoense 1 Fluminense 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bahia					-1.0
Santos					-0.7
America-MG					-1.5
Gremio					-1.4
Fluminense			-0.9		+9.5		-0.8
Sport Recife					-1.2

Week of 9/12
Palmeiras vs FlamengoIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	34.441.954.2		98.799.199.7		0.0NoNo		2.42.11.8
Atletico-MG	36.737.131.0
Palmeiras	18.210.36.3		96.893.591.4				3.03.63.9

Fortaleza vs Atletico-MGHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	47.646.239.9
Atletico-MG	26.731.542.6		98.198.899.6		0.00.0No		2.62.42.0
Palmeiras	12.912.410.2		93.6*93.994.1
Fortaleza	4.92.21.2		85.376.271.6				4.55.35.6

Bragantino vs ChapecoenseHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	43.444.845.3						2.12.02.0
Bragantino	8.24.63.4		91.985.782.1				3.94.54.8
Chapecoense	NoNo0.0		No0.00.1		99.799.598.7		19.819.819.6

Atletico-GO vs CorinthiansHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians			19.024.035.7		3.42.30.9		9.89.28.1
Atletico-GO			18.310.67.5		3.57.29.7		9.911.111.7

Gremio vs CearaHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians			27.427.025.6		2.42.12.1
Ceara			17.021.031.5		4.32.71.1		10.19.58.4
Sao Paulo			2.92.92.6		25.624.123.5
America-MG					35.033.332.6
Gremio			2.00.80.5		31.243.949.8		14.315.315.8
Fluminense					53.651.851.1		15.915.815.8

America-MG vs Athletico-PRHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Athletico-PR			13.717.426.8		5.63.61.5		10.69.98.8
America-MG			2.81.20.7		23.435.441.1		13.614.715.2
Gremio					43.641.941.2
Fluminense					53.551.851.2

Juventude vs CuiabaHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Juventude			21.213.010.0		3.06.58.9		9.510.711.3
Cuiaba			4.15.911.1		16.212.56.6		12.812.211.0

Sport Recife vs InternacionalHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional			11.514.523.2		7.04.82.1		10.910.49.2
Sport Recife	0.0NoNo				75.584.988.2		17.418.018.2

Santos vs BahiaHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bahia			5.17.112.7		14.110.45.2		12.511.910.6
Santos			7.03.52.4		10.819.023.9		11.913.213.7

Fluminense vs Sao PauloHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo			1.52.14.5		32.725.815.5		14.513.912.8
Fluminense	0.0NoNo		1.10.40.3		40.554.661.6		15.116.116.5

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Marcos Vilhena for adding this league.