SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.04 to 27.9%

1-0-1 .500

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	-5.4+2.4+8.7		-0.6+0.3+0.9
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+1.7*-0.7-1.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland	-0.4*+0.2+0.7
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.3*+0.8+0.8
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+0.3*-0.1-0.7		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.3*+1.1-0.5		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.2*+0.3+0.5
Detroit vs Denver	+0.4*+0.1-0.3
Tennessee vs Indianapolis			-0.0+0.1+0.0
Houston vs Tampa Bay			-0.0*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	+5.2-3.3-11.4		+0.7-0.3-1.4
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-0.6*-1.0+1.4		-0.0*-0.0+0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland	+0.5*+0.0-0.8
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.3*+0.9+0.5		-0.0+0.1+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.2*-0.3+0.5
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.3*+0.1-0.3
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+0.2*+1.5-0.2		+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Atlanta vs Houston			+0.0-0.1-0.1
Miami vs NY Jets			-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

15		14	-	0	-	0	In		99	1															177
14	.5	13	-	1	-	0	In		100																6
14		13	-	0	-	1	In		95	5															907
		12	-	2	-	0	In		100																1
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		93	7															100
13		12	-	0	-	2	In		79	19	1		2												6,532
		11	-	2	-	1	In		50	50															6
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		68	27	2		4												663
12		11	-	0	-	3	In		45	40	7	0	8	0											28,855
		10	-	2	-	2	In		34	55	3		3	3											29
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		30	42	12	0	15	1											2,621
11		10	-	0	-	4	99.7	%	11	37	23	3	21	5	0	0									85,029
		9	-	2	-	3	In		15	39	17	1	20	8											88
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	98.6		4	23	26	4	29	12	1	0									6,818
		8	-	3	-	3	In			50			50												2
10		9	-	0	-	5	90.0		1	10	25	10	21	24	8	1	0	0							178,613
		8	-	2	-	4	93.6		1	10	25	12	20	26	6										235
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5	76.5		0	2	15	11	16	32	19	4	0	0							12,883
		7	-	3	-	4	In				50	50													2
9		8	-	0	-	6	43.3		0	0	7	11	5	20	27	20	8	2	0	0					280,269
		7	-	2	-	5	40.3			0	6	9	7	17	26	23	8	3							390
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6	18.0			0	2	6	1	9	25	31	19	6	1	0					17,619
		6	-	3	-	5	50.0							50			50								2
8		7	-	0	-	7	5.7			0	0	3	0	2	8	21	28	23	11	3	0	0	0		326,032
		6	-	2	-	6	5.0				0	4		1	9	18	32	25	10	2	0				482
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7	1.0				0	1		0	1	7	21	31	25	11	2	0	0		18,210
		5	-	3	-	6	Out								10		10	20	30	20	10				10
7		6	-	0	-	8	0.3				0	0		0	0	1	6	17	28	27	15	5	1	0	286,519
		5	-	2	-	7	0.3					0			1	1	5	13	32	28	16	3	1		396
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8	0.0					0			0	0	1	5	17	31	29	14	3	0	13,310
		4	-	3	-	7	Out												25	38	13	13	13		8
6		5	-	0	-	9	0.0					0				0	0	1	5	16	30	30	15	3	188,456
		4	-	2	-	8	Out											0	4	18	33	32	11	2	240
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out											0	1	5	19	37	30	9	7,393
		3	-	3	-	8	Out															50	50		2
5		4	-	0	-	10	Out											0	0	1	7	26	42	23	91,007
		3	-	2	-	9	Out													2	6	18	38	36	116
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out													0	1	13	43	43	2,795
		2	-	3	-	9	Out																	100	1
4		3	-	0	-	11	Out													0	0	5	33	62	31,517
		2	-	2	-	10	Out															4	32	64	28
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out														0	2	19	80	685
3		2	-	0	-	12	Out															0	11	89	7,416
		1	-	2	-	11	Out																33	67	3
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																2	98	99
2		1	-	0	-	13	Out																2	98	1,028
1	-1.5						Out																	100	208	*

Total:							27.9	%	2	4	6	4	5	7	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	1,597,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21	-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+1.4-0.4-2.2
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	-0.2*+0.1+0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.0+0.2+0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis	+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Detroit vs Denver	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Chicago	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Dallas vs Atlanta	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-1.2+0.9+2.6
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	-0.1-0.2+0.1
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Seattle vs Detroit	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.0*+0.2+0.1
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis	-0.0*-0.2+0.0
New Orleans vs Dallas	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants	+0.0*-0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15		14	-	0	-	0	99	1	1
14	.5	13	-	1	-	0	100
14		13	-	0	-	1	84	11	5	0
		12	-	2	-	0	100
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	84	9	7
13		12	-	0	-	2	49	29	18	1	1				2
		11	-	2	-	1	33	17	50
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	40	28	25	1	2				4
12		11	-	0	-	3	12	33	29	11	7	0	0		8	0	0
		10	-	2	-	2	14	21	38	17	3					3	3
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	5	25	26	15	12	0	0		14	1	1
11		10	-	0	-	4	1	11	11	26	16	7	3	0	16	5	5	0	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3		15	17	22	13	5		1	13	8	8
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	0	4	4	19	15	11	4	0	20	9	11	0	1	0
		8	-	3	-	3				50					50
10		9	-	0	-	5	0	1	0	9	7	18	7	3	8	13	19	4	9	1	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4		1		10	9	17	7	5	9	11	21	5	6	1
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5		0	0	2	2	13	6	4	3	13	22	9	18	5	1	0
		7	-	3	-	4						50		50
9		8	-	0	-	6		0	0	0	0	7	3	7	0	5	7	13	24	20	9	3	1	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5				0		6	3	7	1	6	7	11	23	20	11	5	1
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6				0	0	2	1	5	0	1	1	8	11	24	25	15	6	2	0	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5												50			50
8		7	-	0	-	7				0	0	0	0	3		0	0	2	3	9	17	22	19	13	7	3	1	0	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6						0	0	3				1	2	11	16	22	18	13	8	2	2	0
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7						0	0	1				0	0	0	1	5	13	22	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	6																10	10	10	30	30		10
7		6	-	0	-	8						0	0	0				0	0	0	0	1	3	8	14	19	20	16	11	5	2	1	0	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7								0							0	0	3	7	13	21	22	15	9	7	2	0
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8								0									0	0	1	3	8	17	24	23	15	6	2	0	0
		4	-	3	-	7																						13	25	38	25
6		5	-	0	-	9								0									0	0	0	0	2	5	12	18	21	19	13	6	2	1	0	0
		4	-	2	-	8																					2	7	13	23	17	15	12	8	4		0
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9																						0	1	2	9	18	27	23	14	5	1	0
		3	-	3	-	8																										100
5		4	-	0	-	10																						0	0	1	3	8	16	24	24	16	7	1
		3	-	2	-	9																									3	6	13	27	26	19	5	1
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10																										0	2	10	24	32	23	7
		2	-	3	-	9																																100
4		3	-	0	-	11																									0	0	1	4	14	29	34	18
		2	-	2	-	10																													7	29	39	25
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11																												0	3	13	38	46
3		2	-	0	-	12																												0	1	7	32	60
		1	-	2	-	11																														33	33	33
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															16	84
2		1	-	0	-	13																														0	10	90
1	.5	0	-	1	-	13																																100
1		0	-	0	-	14																															1	99

Total:							1	1	1	3	2	4	2	2	2	3	4	3	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1