Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.4 to 33.7%
1-0-1   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/24100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21 +0.7
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Houston vs Tampa Bay-7.2*+0.1+7.6
-0.6*-0.0+0.7
Arizona vs San Francisco+0.3-1.7-0.7
+0.0-0.1-0.1
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh-0.7*+0.7+1.2
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Carolina vs New Orleans-0.4*+0.5+1.4
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Dallas vs Atlanta+0.5*+0.0-0.9
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego-0.4*-0.3+0.7
-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Green Bay vs Kansas City-0.2*-0.3+0.5
NY Jets vs Philadelphia+0.2*-0.2-0.5
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Detroit vs Denver-0.2*-0.1+0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Carolina+10.5-1.8-11.1
+0.9-0.1-1.0
Atlanta vs Houston-0.5*-0.4+1.7
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Denver vs Minnesota+0.5*+0.4-1.1
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay-0.6*+0.2+0.7
Buffalo vs NY Giants+0.2*+0.1-0.4
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Arizona vs St. Louis+0.2*+0.3-0.4
Chicago vs Oakland-0.2*+1.4+0.2
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Washington vs Philadelphia-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-D-Lplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
14.5-15In100201*
1413-0-1In97301,125
13.512-1-1In9010132
1312-0-2In8214047,861
11-2-1In901010
12.511-1-2In702028770
1211-0-3In49305016033,286
10-2-2In503161436
11.510-1-3In2732912822,901
9-3-2In1001
1110-0-499.8%13261423860094,886
9-2-399.118271533251116
10.59-1-499.1313144481617,392
8-3-3In3333333
109-0-593.6161164128600194,025
8-2-494.7261054923500264
9.58-1-582.101452943162013,846
7-3-488.9114433119
98-0-655.4002414363112200290,440
7-2-553.233153232113393
8.57-1-625.6001321372791018,013
6-3-558.3850251712
87-0-79.30118243223102000326,487
6-2-69.4109233421103501
7.56-1-71.000172233251020017,937
5-3-6Out17171742812
76-0-80.200029212924123000275,193
5-2-70.20182431221031403
6.55-1-80.000151831281330012,693
4-3-7Out75254
65-0-9Out00281929261330174,367
4-2-8Out262228261230242
5.54-1-9Out0151832301226,690
3-3-8Out1002
54-0-10Out0028223426880,659
3-2-9Out172435221188
4.53-1-10Out0182741232,419
43-0-11Out00316414026,712
2-2-10Out315552733
3.52-1-11Out043463552
32-0-12Out0222766,003
1-2-11Out20805
2.51-1-12Out109087
21-0-13Out0595821
1-1.5Out100176*
Total:33.7%2332111312111087654321,597,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/24100.0*Lottery seed
NY Giants 32 Washington 21 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Houston vs Tampa Bay+1.8-0.5-1.9
Carolina vs New Orleans+0.0-0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Atlanta-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Seattle vs Chicago+0.0*+0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia+0.0-0.1-0.0
New England vs Jacksonville+0.0-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati+0.0*-0.2-0.0
Detroit vs Denver+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Minnesota vs San Diego+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Carolina-2.0-0.3+2.1
Atlanta vs Houston+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Denver vs Minnesota-0.0*-0.1+0.1
Chicago vs Oakland-0.1*-0.2+0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Cincinnati vs Kansas City-0.0*+0.2+0.0
Buffalo vs NY Giants+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Miami vs NY Jets+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1514-0-0991
14.513-1-08515
1413-0-188930
13.512-1-182810
1312-0-25626131040
11-2-1405010
12.511-1-2432719128
1211-0-316332374001510
10-2-21436228614
11.510-1-362122109012722
9-3-2100
1110-0-41129171132029106000
9-2-3117917141324851
10.59-1-403311954031171511
8-3-3333333
109-0-50106475114272185100
8-2-42637411732177410
9.58-1-5011432525241914310
7-3-4112222221111
98-0-60000222113927111411620000
7-2-51321114527141411520
8.57-1-6000103120820231562000
6-3-588428258
87-0-7001010813713182016941000
6-2-6100812912182116741
7.56-1-700101512212520104100
5-3-683333817
76-0-800000001251117212013721000
5-2-701116102014251552
6.55-1-800128162324168200
4-3-7252550
65-0-900001410172322146200
4-2-811391822241490
5.54-1-9002718252615510
3-3-85050
54-0-1000028182827143
3-2-959242822102
4.53-1-100282133278
43-0-110016214032
2-2-106214230
3.52-1-1102113850
32-0-12022374
1-2-11100
2.51-1-121585
21-0-13496
1.50-1-13100
10-0-14199
Total:12121111475834444544444433332221