SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances 2015

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.06 to 27.9%

1-0-1 .500

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Green Bay vs Kansas City	-4.7+3.0+10.4		-0.5+0.3+1.0
Detroit vs Denver	+1.2*+0.2-0.9		+0.1-0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs San Diego	+0.7*-0.1-1.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Philadelphia	-0.3*+0.7+0.9
New England vs Jacksonville	-0.4*+0.9+0.8
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.4*+0.1-0.6		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Miami vs Buffalo	-0.2*+0.3+0.3
Cleveland vs Oakland	+0.2*+0.5-0.3
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.2*+0.4-0.2

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	-5.9+3.4+13.0		-0.6+0.4+1.3
Denver vs Minnesota	-0.7*+1.4+1.4		-0.1+0.1+0.1
Chicago vs Oakland	+0.8*+0.6-0.9		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Buffalo vs NY Giants	-0.3*+0.3+0.7		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
San Diego vs Cleveland	-0.3*+1.1+0.4		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore	-0.2*+0.7+0.4
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville	+0.2*+0.2-0.2
Atlanta vs Houston			+0.0*-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Kansas City finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

14.5	-15						In		100																176	*
14		13	-	0	-	1	In		94	5			1												882
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	In		91	6			3												102
13		12	-	0	-	2	In		78	16	1		6	0											6,611
		11	-	2	-	1	In		33	67															3
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	In		65	23	2		9	0											671
12		11	-	0	-	3	100.0	%	43	32	6	0	18	0	0										29,669
		10	-	2	-	2	In		44	38	6		12												34
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	In		29	38	11	1	21	1											2,718
11		10	-	0	-	4	99.6		11	28	17	2	34	7	0	0									89,060
		9	-	2	-	3	In		9	35	16	2	34	5											107
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	98.7		5	20	22	4	35	13	1										7,146
		8	-	3	-	3	In		33	67															3
10		9	-	0	-	5	89.0		1	7	16	6	31	28	10	1	0	0							187,719
		8	-	2	-	4	89.8		0	8	18	5	33	24	8	2									283
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5	74.1		0	2	12	8	18	34	21	5	1	0							13,633
		7	-	3	-	4	In				33		67												3
9		8	-	0	-	6	40.0		0	0	4	5	7	24	32	20	7	1	0	0					289,901
		7	-	2	-	5	37.5			0	3	5	7	22	34	22	6	0	1						443
		6	-	4	-	4	Out								100										1
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6	15.3			0	1	4	1	9	27	32	19	6	1	0					18,162
		6	-	3	-	5	Out								13	25	25	38							8
8		7	-	0	-	7	3.6			0	0	1	0	2	11	23	28	21	10	3	0	0	0		331,221
		6	-	2	-	6	2.9				0	1		2	11	24	30	18	11	3					515
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7	0.4					0	0	0	1	7	22	32	25	10	2	0			18,003
		5	-	3	-	6	Out										11	33	44	11					9
7		6	-	0	-	8	0.1				0	0		0	0	2	8	19	28	25	13	4	1	0	282,745
		5	-	2	-	7	Out								0	1	7	20	28	25	14	4	0	0	406
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8	0.0					0				0	1	5	17	31	30	13	3	0	12,894
		4	-	3	-	7	Out												33	11	44		11		9
6		5	-	0	-	9	0.0					0				0	0	1	7	20	31	27	12	2	178,180
		4	-	2	-	8	Out												7	22	36	23	11	1	269
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9	Out											0	0	5	20	38	29	7	6,646
		3	-	3	-	8	Out														20	20	60		5
5		4	-	0	-	10	Out											0	0	2	11	31	39	16	82,526
		3	-	2	-	9	Out													1	7	33	41	18	95
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10	Out													0	2	16	45	37	2,516
4		3	-	0	-	11	Out													0	1	9	41	49	26,941
		2	-	2	-	10	Out															8	32	60	25
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11	Out															1	24	75	598
3		2	-	0	-	12	Out														0	1	19	80	5,864
		1	-	2	-	11	Out															20		80	5
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12	Out																6	94	86
2		1	-	0	-	13	Out																5	95	743
1	-1.5						Out																	100	172	*

Total:							27.9	%	2	3	4	2	8	9	10	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	4	2	1,597,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24	100.0*	Lottery seed
Green Bay vs Kansas City	+1.1-0.9-2.4
Detroit vs Denver	-0.1+0.1+0.1
Miami vs Buffalo	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Houston vs Tampa Bay	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Seattle vs Chicago	+0.0+0.0-0.1
New England vs Jacksonville	+0.0-0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh	+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Cleveland vs Oakland	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Arizona vs San Francisco	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Carolina vs New Orleans	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/1	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cincinnati vs Kansas City	+1.2-1.1-2.6
Denver vs Minnesota	+0.1-0.2-0.1
San Francisco vs Green Bay	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Atlanta vs Houston	+0.0+0.1-0.0
Seattle vs Detroit	+0.0*+0.1-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Carolina	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Arizona vs St. Louis	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
San Diego vs Cleveland	-0.0*-0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Power Rankings

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

14.5	-15						100
14		13	-	0	-	1	83	10	5						1
13	.5	12	-	1	-	1	77	14	6						3
13		12	-	0	-	2	49	29	15	1	1				6	0	0
		11	-	2	-	1	33		67
12	.5	11	-	1	-	2	39	26	22	1	2				9		0
12		11	-	0	-	3	11	32	23	9	6	0	0		17	1	0		0
		10	-	2	-	2	15	29	26	12	6				12
11	.5	10	-	1	-	3	6	23	24	13	10	0	1		20	1	1
11		10	-	0	-	4	1	11	8	20	12	5	2	0	26	8	7	0	0	0
		9	-	2	-	3		9	5	30	9	7	2		26	7	5
10	.5	9	-	1	-	4	0	4	3	17	13	9	4	0	24	12	12	1	1	0
		8	-	3	-	3		33	33	33
10		9	-	0	-	5	0	1	0	7	4	12	4	2	12	19	23	5	9	2	0	0
		8	-	2	-	4		0	0	8	4	14	3	2	14	19	21	4	8	2
9	.5	8	-	1	-	5		0		2	1	10	5	4	4	14	23	11	19	6	1	0	0
		7	-	3	-	4						33			33	33
9		8	-	0	-	6		0		0	0	3	1	3	1	7	9	15	17	22	14	5	1	0	0	0
		7	-	2	-	5				0		3	2	4	0	7	7	15	21	23	14	3	1
		6	-	4	-	4														100
8	.5	7	-	1	-	6				0	0	1	1	3		1	1	9	11	24	26	16	7	2	0	0	0
		6	-	3	-	5														25	13	25	25	13
8		7	-	0	-	7				0		0	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	4	11	18	21	19	13	6	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	2	-	6						0		1				2	1	4	12	19	20	19	11	7	2	1
7	.5	6	-	1	-	7							0	0		0		0	0	0	1	5	12	21	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
		5	-	3	-	6																	11		44	11	33
7		6	-	0	-	8						0	0	0				0		0	0	0	1	4	9	15	19	20	16	10	4	1	0	0	0	0
		5	-	2	-	7																0	0	3	11	14	21	21	15	9	3	2	0
6	.5	5	-	1	-	8								0										0	0	3	8	16	24	24	16	6	2	0	0
		4	-	3	-	7																						11	33	33	11	11
6		5	-	0	-	9								0										0	0	0	1	3	7	14	20	22	18	10	4	1	0	0
		4	-	2	-	8																					1	3	9	14	20	26	16	7	4	1
5	.5	4	-	1	-	9																						0	0	2	8	17	27	26	13	5	1	0
		3	-	3	-	8																										40	20	20	20
5		4	-	0	-	10																						0	0	0	1	5	12	22	27	21	10	2
		3	-	2	-	9																									1	7	8	27	24	20	9	2
4	.5	3	-	1	-	10																										0	2	10	23	33	25	7
4		3	-	0	-	11																										0	0	2	10	26	38	23
		2	-	2	-	10																												4	8	28	48	12
3	.5	2	-	1	-	11																												0	2	15	39	43
3		2	-	0	-	12																												0	1	5	29	66
		1	-	2	-	11																												20			20	60
2	.5	1	-	1	-	12																															12	88
2		1	-	0	-	13																														1	8	91
1	-1.5																																					100

Total:							1	1	1	2	1	2	1	1	3	4	5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1